SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Just heard NWS is bailing on snow forecast. Even though 18z GFS has heavy snow starting soon... 32 in Bothell... Woah are we bailing on this last second??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Just heard NWS is bailing on snow forecast. Even though 18z GFS has heavy snow starting soon... 32 in Bothell... Ok perfect. Time for the temps to drop further than expected and skunk them again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 My Weiner is not bailing.. I'm still all in. 12 more inches by morning for Seattle 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurienSnowGlobe Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This mix wants to turn to all snow so bad (Central District) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 There's some margin. Let's do it! 31° / 30° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Girls checked, 3 inches at home and 31 degrees. 1/2 inch here and raining 32.5, 31 dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Hmmm. I feel like this isn’t anything we didn’t expect though? (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 King still says game on 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said: Hmmm. I feel like this isn’t anything we didn’t expect though? LOL THAT'S ME. NWS is on something. It's been snowing all day on at Bothell they posted a radar image with it raining. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 I'm not onboard. 34.2 now and going up with DP up to 33. I was pretty sure this was overdone but this has been way overdone. Hoping the longer range will bail us out a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: 2 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Although I have noticed a lot of the heavier precip is getting eaten up by something when it crosses the sound and ends up being light snow showers that can’t really accumulate. I was thinking their reasoning had something to do with that but I guess not. Hmmm 2 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Per NWS Spokane Major Winter Storm This Afternoon through Thursday... Today through Friday morning: ECMWF EFI charts are showing an anomalous snowfall event especially for the northern half of Washington tonight through tomorrow afternoon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 I wouldn’t bail on this one just yet folks up north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Now 33 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: Nws is discouraged. They say that is phantom snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: LOL THAT'S ME. NWS is on something. It's been snowing all day on at Bothell they posted a radar image with it raining. Now they know your Twitter and won’t ever acknowledge you on there ever again! I know some of the peeps there have to be reading this. 1 3 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Home after leaving work early to avoid what is sure to be a gong show of an afternoon rush. Light snow falling, 1" accumulation, 31.5˚F, east wind. Arterials slushy, side streets an icy mess. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Listen, the folks at the NWS are extremely talented and informed, but that response was pretty bad. "Based on things and such, like temperatures." Sounds like a kid doing a presentation on a book he didn't read. lol 1 5 -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishbish777 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: How much of that already fell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Now 33 and rain. 33˚F rain is just about the worst. So close, yet so far. It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Up to 38 here now. Nasty rain. This isn't what I had planned for the evening. I am making signs to go out and protest against this injustice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 What’s the 18z euro spitting out for snow tomorrow night? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, bishbish777 said: How much of that already fell? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said: How much of that already fell? Not much heavy precipitation is still forecasted to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 LOL Snow ratios have been adjusted as our ratios will be higher than 10:1. The GFS/GEFS guidance has been amazingly persistent at putting nearly a foot of snowfall in Spokane by Thursday morning and continues to do so. There is a chance it could be consistently wrong though. ECMWF/EC ensemble has also been quite consistent with lesser amounts in Spokane and higher to the north. 2 consistently disparate deterministic/ensemble models have made this an extremely challenging forecast and continues to do so as the event starts to ramp up. The deterministic Canadian/ensemble has taken a middle of the road solution but has leaned closer to the ECMWF lately. We have continue to trend on the snowier side as snow ratios will be higher than 10:1 for most of the event in the Spokane area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 EURO is banking on evaporative cooling as dew points are 1-2 degrees cooler than the 12z run. This thing is right on the edge… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said: How much of that already fell? most of what EURO models falls between 7pm and 4am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Just about right on for my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Really looking forward to the updated discussion to see an explanation.. Anyways, about 1” on non pavement surfaces here in DT Everett. 3 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said: Listen, the folks at the NWS are extremely talented and informed, but that response was pretty bad. "Based on things and such, like temperatures." Sounds like a kid doing a presentation on a book he didn't read. lol Screen shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: most of what EURO models falls between 7pm and 4am Which is odd since that's when all the weather apps (I know, I know) say temps will inch up a bit and transition to widespread rain. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, KingstonWX said: Which is odd since that's when all the weather apps (I know, I know) say temps will inch up a bit and transition to widespread rain. This will be the biggest phantom snow event ever if it actually flubs for areas north of Seattle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 If this ends up busting it will go down as one of the worst model performances I can remember. The models have been remarkably consistent showing heavy accumulating snow over the next couple days and I will have serious trust issues if the most people end up with is an inch or two. 2 2 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: This will be the biggest phantom snow event ever if it actually flubs for areas north of Seattle. So you're saying everyone is going to underplay the next snow event now, after flubbing this one, and normies will get caught off guard on I-5 with a sudden foot deep snow dump? I've seen this movie before. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A frontal system continues to move through the area today. Southerly winds have been picking up through the afternoon and temperatures have warmed up to the mid 30s for the lowland interior region. Heavier precipitation associated with the warm front has been enough to switch precipitation type over to snow/wintery mix for areas below 1000 feet. Winter weather products have been updated to be for areas above 1000 feet. For areas that had winter weather products cancelled (Seattle metro, Hood Canal, Lower Chehalis, and all areas below 1000 feet) there remains the chance of wintery precipitation but it should be minimal and short lived. 2 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Overall most of the 18z runs look pretty solid for the south sound tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Maybe in a marginal situation like this, they are reverting back to what would be a normal weather pattern and strong southerly winds scouring out the cold air? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Looking closer the EURO is way too low on dew points… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 30, 2022 Report Share Posted November 30, 2022 Also, no mention of Wednesday night / Thursday morning snow possibility in the discussion…? 1 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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