November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Just heard NWS is bailing on snow forecast. Even though 18z GFS has heavy snow starting soon... 32 in Bothell...

Woah are we bailing on this last second???

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Just heard NWS is bailing on snow forecast. Even though 18z GFS has heavy snow starting soon... 32 in Bothell...

Ok perfect. Time for the temps to drop further than expected and skunk them again. 

[Weiner Warrior]

My Weiner is not bailing.. I'm still all in. 12 more inches by morning for Seattle

[BurienSnowGlobe]

This mix wants to turn to all snow so bad (Central District)

[Nov1985]

There's some margin. Let's do it! 31° / 30°

[snow maniac]

54 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Girls checked, 3 inches at home and 31 degrees.

1/2 inch here and raining 32.5, 31 dew point

[MikeInEverett]

Hmmm. I feel like this isn’t anything we didn’t expect though?

[Snownerd3000]

King still says game on

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

Hmmm. I feel like this isn’t anything we didn’t expect though?

LOL THAT'S ME. NWS is on something. It's been snowing all day on at Bothell they posted a radar image with it raining.

[Winterdog]

I'm not onboard.  34.2 now and going up with DP up to 33.  I was pretty sure this was overdone but this has been way overdone.  Hoping the longer range will bail us out a bit.

[Hawksfan2008]

Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: 

[MikeInEverett]

Although I have noticed a lot of the heavier precip is getting eaten up by something when it crosses the sound and ends up being light snow showers that can’t really accumulate. I was thinking their reasoning had something to do with that but I guess not. Hmmm

[Phishy Wx]

Per NWS Spokane

 

Major Winter Storm This Afternoon through Thursday...

Today through Friday morning:
ECMWF EFI charts are showing an anomalous snowfall event especially 
for the northern half of Washington tonight through tomorrow 
afternoon.

[TacomaWx]

I wouldn’t bail on this one just yet folks up north. 

[RentonHill]

Now 33 and rain.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: 

Nws is discouraged. They say that is phantom snow.

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

LOL THAT'S ME. NWS is on something. It's been snowing all day on at Bothell they posted a radar image with it raining.

Now they know your Twitter and won’t ever acknowledge you on there ever again! I know some of the peeps there have to be reading this.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Home after leaving work early to avoid what is sure to be a gong show of an afternoon rush.

Light snow falling, 1" accumulation, 31.5˚F, east wind.

Arterials slushy, side streets an icy mess.

[SeanNyberg]

Listen, the folks at the NWS are extremely talented and informed, but that response was pretty bad.

"Based on things and such, like temperatures." Sounds like a kid doing a presentation on a book he didn't read. lol

[bishbish777]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Anddddd the EURO increases totals. This is ending at 10 am tomorrow morning: 

How much of that already fell? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Now 33 and rain.

33˚F rain is just about the worst. So close, yet so far.

[KingstonWX]

Up to 38 here now. Nasty rain. This isn't what I had planned for the evening. I am making signs to go out and protest against this injustice. 

[TacomaWx]

What’s the 18z euro spitting out for snow tomorrow night?

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, bishbish777 said:

How much of that already fell? 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

How much of that already fell? 

Not much heavy precipitation is still forecasted to move in.

[Phishy Wx]

LOL

 

Snow ratios have been 
adjusted as our ratios will be higher than 10:1. The GFS/GEFS 
guidance has been amazingly persistent at putting nearly a foot of 
snowfall in Spokane by Thursday morning and continues to do so. 
There is a chance it could be consistently wrong though. ECMWF/EC 
ensemble has also been quite consistent with lesser amounts in 
Spokane and higher to the north. 2 consistently disparate 
deterministic/ensemble models have made this an extremely 
challenging forecast and continues to do so as the event starts to 
ramp up. The deterministic Canadian/ensemble has taken a middle of 
the road solution but has leaned closer to the ECMWF lately. We have 
continue to trend on the snowier side as snow ratios will be higher 
than 10:1 for most of the event in the Spokane area.

[Hawksfan2008]

EURO is banking on evaporative cooling as dew points are 1-2 degrees cooler than the 12z run. This thing is right on the edge… 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

How much of that already fell? 

most of what EURO models falls between 7pm and 4am

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Just about right on for my area!

[MikeInEverett]

Really looking forward to the updated discussion to see an explanation.. Anyways, about 1” on non pavement surfaces here in DT Everett.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen, the folks at the NWS are extremely talented and informed, but that response was pretty bad.

"Based on things and such, like temperatures." Sounds like a kid doing a presentation on a book he didn't read. lol

Screen shot?

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

most of what EURO models falls between 7pm and 4am

Which is odd since that's when all the weather apps (I know, I know) say temps will inch up a bit and transition to widespread rain. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

Which is odd since that's when all the weather apps (I know, I know) say temps will inch up a bit and transition to widespread rain. 

This will be the biggest phantom snow event ever if it actually flubs for areas north of Seattle.

[Skagit Weather]

If this ends up busting it will go down as one of the worst model performances I can remember. The models have been remarkably consistent showing heavy accumulating snow over the next couple days and I will have serious trust issues if the most people end up with is an inch or two.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

This will be the biggest phantom snow event ever if it actually flubs for areas north of Seattle.

So you're saying everyone is going to underplay the next snow event now, after flubbing this one, and normies will get caught off guard on I-5 with a sudden foot deep snow dump?

I've seen this movie before. 

[MikeInEverett]

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A frontal system continues
to move through the area today. Southerly winds have been picking
up through the afternoon and temperatures have warmed up to the
mid 30s for the lowland interior region. Heavier precipitation
associated with the warm front has been enough to switch
precipitation type over to snow/wintery mix for areas below 1000
feet. Winter weather products have been updated to be for areas
above 1000 feet.

For areas that had winter weather products cancelled (Seattle
metro, Hood Canal, Lower Chehalis, and all areas below 1000 feet)
there remains the chance of wintery precipitation but it should be
minimal and short lived.

[TacomaWx]

Overall most of the 18z runs look pretty solid for the south sound tomorrow night. 

[SnowHawks]

Maybe in a marginal situation like this, they are reverting back to what would be a normal weather pattern and strong southerly winds scouring out the cold air?

[Hawksfan2008]

Looking closer the EURO is way too low on dew points…

[MikeInEverett]

Also, no mention of Wednesday night / Thursday morning snow possibility in the discussion…?