Tundra Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s? From an average of 18 inches a year back in the 1870s and 1880s to a measly 2 inches a year now. If not for the 2 feet in December 2008 it would have been worse in the 2000s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming... I grant you the planet has been warming, but the question is what is causing it. As you know the planet has undergone huge temperature swings in the past before man was a factor. There have undoubtedly been many index fluctuations in that time. I think the NAO becoming so negative during the summer could very possibly be natural phenomenon. The fact it happened so suddenly actually argues for a natural cause. Maybe the last solar minimum being so deep was a trigger. Who knows. I would think you of all people would be thinking outside of the box on this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Can it be argued that the -NAO during JJA is at least in part forced by lower Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (and the warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic as a result)? I would think that a warmer Arctic during the summer would create a smaller equator-pole temperature gradient than in summers past, leading to a weaker Icelandic low and less of a pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic during the summer (leading to lower NAO). I know there's a lot more to it than that, but this over-simplified correlation immediately jumped out at me. The sea ice went low in 2007 (the same year the NAO did). It might be possible the NAO plunge that summer caused the low sea ice. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 There is indeed an enormous cold pool over Eurasia right now with nothing in our hemisphere. A huge nationwade cold wave becomes more likely a bit down the road the longer this is the case. Since that happened in 1983 it's pretty easy to imagine it happening this time around. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Could the Central Coast of California see the impacts of the outbreak? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Can it be argued that the -NAO during JJA is at least in part forced by lower Arctic sea ice extent in the summer (and the warmer summer temperatures in the Arctic as a result)? I would think that a warmer Arctic during the summer would create a smaller equator-pole temperature gradient than in summers past, leading to a weaker Icelandic low and less of a pressure gradient across the N. Atlantic during the summer (leading to lower NAO). I know there's a lot more to it than that, but this over-simplified correlation immediately jumped out at me.I think it's possible, sure. I don't have the answers, of course. My hunch is that it has mostly to do with the combination of broader Hadley Cells, and the abrupt weakening of the solar winds/AP index that occurred in 2006. Theoretically, the combination of these two forcings would promote something similar. That leaves the 1950s unexplained, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Could the Central Coast of California see the impacts of the outbreak? Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming...To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago. Shortly after the end of the Pleistocene? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 FWIW, according to Dr. Judah Cohen, the October SAI (snow advance index, measures the rate/magnitude of snowcover advance south of 60N in Euasia) looks to be the second highest on record, behind 1976/77. The correlation has been criticized, but virtually all of the very high SAI years have featured either periods of significant high latitude blocking or anomalous cold/snow over the US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Take this with a grain of pepper and not too literally. It sure is pretty though, isn't it? Subject to change: Yes 00z CFS shows classic retrogression beginning at day 12. It takes awhile, but a solid block builds over Alaska with 500mb heights over 560 across southern Alaska. Flow eventually buckles bends around to the northeast. 850mb -10c and colder move over WA/parts of OR. Done deal. Sorry for posting so many images, but I think you'll be okay with it. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/288/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/336/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/420/500h_anom.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/384/850th_nb.na.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016110200/432/850th_nb.na.png Post all the images you want, the colder and snowier the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 How can something be "normal" when the climate is warming? Nothing is normal right now. Even cyclical fluctuations are affected/going to be affected by increased temperatures as a result of GHG's. We're talking about open systems in nature being affected by planetary-scale warming... At the same time, climate has always been in a state of flux. Warming or cooling. Granted, the speed of the warming right now is faster than most previous climate changes. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 This graph depicting decadal snowfall shocks me. I had no idea how bad things have become out there. Almost a 90% decline in decadal snowfall since the 1870s? Again though, with 3 winters remaining in the 2010s, it would only take one good one for this graph to end up quite a bit different at the end. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Shortly after the end of the Pleistocene?Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years. Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years. Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know. Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Day's like this I am thankful to be rain shadowed...looks like it might actually stay dry for more than 10 minutes!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Again though, with 3 winters remaining in the 2010s, it would only take one good one for this graph to end up quite a bit different at the end.What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene.Well that's just bulls**t, IMO. We've got, what, a few hundred years of fossil fuels left? Not to mention none of the proposed positive feedback loops have materialized (yet). What do you think will happen as obliquity and precession continue to move into an ice-age-favoring state over the next 10,000 years? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Ugly 12z ECMWF run..eeek. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 FWIW, according to Dr. Judah Cohen, the October SAI (snow advance index, measures the rate/magnitude of snowcover advance south of 60N in Euasia) looks to be the second highest on record, behind 1976/77. The correlation has been criticized, but virtually all of the very high SAI years have featured either periods of significant high latitude blocking or anomalous cold/snow over the US. Lord knows 1976-77 had a wee bit of blocking during the winter. It was a Nino so the position of any blocking this winter could easily be different. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 I grant you the planet has been warming, but the question is what is causing it. As you know the planet has undergone huge temperature swings in the past before man was a factor. There have undoubtedly been many index fluctuations in that time. I think the NAO becoming so negative during the summer could very possibly be natural phenomenon. The fact it happened so suddenly actually argues for a natural cause. Maybe the last solar minimum being so deep was a trigger. Who knows. I would think you of all people would be thinking outside of the box on this. I don't see how this relates to what I said... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Ugly 12z ECMWF run..eeek. It so bad it almost seems like it has to lead to something good. A full reversal could be in the cards. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 The sea ice went low in 2007 (the same year the NAO did). It might be possible the NAO plunge that summer caused the low sea ice. Certainly. I don't have the answers or even the knowledge base to attempt a more in-depth explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's I think we could have a monster winter before 2020, but only time will tell. Maybe that graph will start to look more interesting. BTW the graph is apparently wrong anyway. Too little snow some decades. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem" http://i.imgur.com/BjPRYLO.jpghttp://i.imgur.com/CNhc3ov.jpg https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 To be fair, the current global warming (since the 1700s) is well within the range of natural climate variability within the Holocene (over the last 11,000+ years), based on the highest resolution isotope based proxies. Arctic summers were likely ice free as recently as 8000yrs ago. Well, the Holocene Climatic Optimum isn't really a mystery to paleoclimatologists. Neither is the current (at least partially) GHG-fueled round of warming. So we're not breaking any new ground here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 At the same time, climate has always been in a state of flux. Warming or cooling. Granted, the speed of the warming right now is faster than most previous climate changes. Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Well, whether or not we've actually left the Pleistocene is debatable. Assuming we have requires the labeling of the Holocene as a new "epoch", which assumes that we've left the stadials/interstadial cycle that's dominated the last million+ years. Technically we have labeled the Holocene as a new epoch, which I think is wishful thinking but what do I know. We're hearing the term "Anthropocene" more and more these days as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Then you have people saying we have left the Holocene and are now in the Anthropocene. That's funny, I didn't even notice you made this post before I made mine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 That's funny, I didn't even notice you made this post before I made mine.I wonder if yours will make Phil equally irate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Well that's just bulls**t, IMO. We've got, what, a few hundred years of fossil fuels left? Not to mention none of the proposed positive feedback loops have materialized (yet). What do you think will happen as obliquity and precession continue to move into an ice-age-favoring state over the next 10,000 years? That's very debatable. The term "Anthropocene" encompasses the entire suite of human impacts on the planet, not just our alteration of the climate. The premise is that we've made enough of a footprint so as to be visible on a geologic horizon millions of years from now, assuming the Earth will have intelligent beings capable of studying the past, at that time. This is also very much outside the scope of this thread/forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 I wonder if yours will make Phil equally irate. It shouldn't make anyone irate, provided they understand the definition of the term! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 New post from Big Joe Bastardi, not good but I don't see this pattern lasting all Winter even if it verifies. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi "Back to back 2 worst winters last 50 years 500 mb, Euro parallel ensembles week ending 12/2 best euro products http://Weatherbell.com prem" https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/793918787007422464 Wow, very interesting. The similarities are... blatant. But as far as I'm concerned, that's simply a pattern that, in the case of 76/77, was very persistent... could be transient in 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 Toasty out. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 What would you consider good. Is the graph really going to look vastly different if the end result is 35" in the 2010's One 18" winter, a 5", and a 2", and we're looking at the snowiest decade since the 1970s for Portland. Not at all out of the realm of possibility. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 One 18" winter, a 5", and a 2", and we're looking at the snowiest decade since the 1970s for Portland. Not at all out of the realm of possibility.PDX had 43.6" last decade (assuming we're counting '08-09 as the last winter of the decade, and not the NWS standard of using '09-10 as the last winter of the decade). We've had 16.6" this decade, so we'd have to average 9" the next three years to match the 00s. Doable, but unlikely. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg98.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 October 2016 was officially the 3rd wettest in Klamath Falls with 2.48" of rain. 1950 is the wettest at 2.96", 1979 is 2nd wettest at 2.84". Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted November 2, 2016 Report Share Posted November 2, 2016 PDX had 43.6" last decade (assuming we're counting '08-09 as the last winter of the decade, and not the NWS standard of using '09-10 as the last winter of the decade). We've had 16.6" this decade, so we'd have to average 9" the next three years to match the 00s. Doable, but unlikely. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/pg98.pdf Easiest way is to just use entire year... January 2000 to December 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.