November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

I like the carrots in the 6Z. Let's see what the 12Z has in store.

[Front Ranger]

 

00z ECMWF Ensembles quite similar to the operational. Trough over us, quite chilly at times, lots of cold storms moving in from the NW, and a ton of mountain snow. The positive anomaly is in a great location if we were to see amplification as we end the month.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111700/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_11.png

 

 

That there is a PDO-droppin' pattern.

[Jesse]

Models have definitely been milding up.

 

Yesterday's average departure will probably end up our coolest day this month.

[GobBluth]

12z gfs looks good in the believable range.

[Jesse]

12z gfs looks good in the believable range.

Maybe for mountain snow. I never like warming trends over consecutive runs though, since they have a habit of getting carried away these days.

[westcoastexpat]

Models have definitely been milding up.

 

Yesterday's average departure will probably end up our coolest day this month.

Agreed.. Trend has been disheartening. Definitely looks like no warning shots into December.

[GobBluth]

Maybe for mountain snow. I never like warming trends over consecutive runs though, since they have a habit of getting carried away these days.

this time of the year I think we should be happy with a pattern giving mountain snow. 

 

I'm a little worried with how El Nino splitty it's trying to get way out there.

[Jesse]

this time of the year I think we should be happy with a pattern giving mountain snow.

 

I'm a little worried with how El Nino splitty it's trying to get way out there.

That's true. I am a little annoyed that our window for sub-40 temps in the lowlands this week is closing, though.

 

LR GFS looks splitty?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the main problem with the pattern have been how the lows kind of drop offshore and cutoff. 

 

The ensemble mean is pretty much CLIMO throughout the run. Probably continues the run of mild overnight lows however. 

 

I don't have a great feeling about December, but am actually starting to feel a little better about January. Certainly will not be a "front loaded" winter. 

[Phil]

Despite the aforementioned Hadley Cell issues, there's some good news with regards to the latest stratospheric developments, and I'm starting to think these developments will be crucial to the upcoming winter.

 

The GEFS/EPS members are almost in unanimous agreement with a partial to complete wind reversal @ 60N, at/below 10mb, with a partial to complete destruction of the PV looking increasingly possible. This will assist in not only maintaining high latitude blocking, but will also act to cool the equatorial tropopause/lower stratosphere, which will favor an increase in near equator convection relative to off equator convection.

 

This may act to contract and tighten the Hadley Cells equatorward, and open up the door for a NPAC regime change in December. Usually in cases like this, I'd expect the EPO to tank, and that broad/flat anticyclone south of the Aleutian to disintegrate.

 

Here's latest GEFS forecast (Hannah Attard's site). This is fairly significant.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[BLI snowman]

It would be fascinating if PDX made it to the end of the month with a seasonal low of 41. I don't think there's any precedent for that.

[stuffradio]

The short range GFS suggests I will reach over my usual 12" of rain for November. Not sure what I got last night, but I'm somewhere between 8 and 9" of rain already, so 12" shouldn't be hard. Before hour 240 gives us 524 thickness at hour 216 above the border. The week going into December would actually be dry, but like we have said countless times when we see patterns we like at hour 384, it's hour 384... so don't get depressed because it shows ridgy weather going into December just because it's not arctic cold.

[Jesse]

Yeah the main problem with the pattern have been how the lows kind of drop offshore and cutoff.

 

The ensemble mean is pretty much CLIMO throughout the run. Probably continues the run of mild overnight lows however.

 

I don't have a great feeling about December, but am actually starting to feel a little better about January. Certainly will not be a "front loaded" winter.

Have you managed a freeze yet?

[Phil]

So, if the equatorial/tropical response to the strawarm is coherent and successful in reigning in the Hadley Cells and lowering the wavenumber, the door opens for something significant in December, and possibly beyond.

 

However, if the wide Hadley Cell background state is just too much to overcome, and the response fails or fails to complete and/or cycle, both December and January could be very problematic over the NPAC.

 

Will have to watch these developments closely. In my opinion, the importance of getting this right cannot be understated.

[Front Ranger]

Agreed.. Trend has been disheartening. Definitely looks like no warning shots into December.

 

Well, the years SW likes to reference that had multiple "warning shots" before a huge event (usually in January) typically didn't see them until December. Sometimes mid December.

 

I think we're definitely moving in the right direction. Halfway through November...patience. 

[Kayla]

So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast.

 

12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!

[MossMan]

So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast.

 

12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!

I know!! If it wasn't so much work I would go to the Nov. 2008 archives and grab a couple of posts of people leaping off the edge at this time that year!

[IbrChris]

Nothing close to freezing in Tigard this morning, I had a low of 40. Perhaps a shot at a light frost tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have you managed a freeze yet?

 

No,

 

Given yesterdays high of 44 I thought I had a chance, but I only had a low of 38 this morning. Maybe if we can get some clearing tonight. Really haven't even come close to a solid freeze yet. Which is astounding, it really is not hard to do. In 2011-12 cold season I had about 120-130 freezes I believe...Something like that. 

[ShawniganLake]

33F here this morning. So close.

[BLI snowman]

No,

 

Given yesterdays high of 44 I thought I had a chance, but I only had a low of 38 this morning. Maybe if we can get some clearing tonight. Really haven't even come close to a solid freeze yet. Which is astounding, it really is not hard to do. In 2011-12 cold season I had about 120-130 freezes I believe...Something like that. 

 

Not the same climate as back then. 

[HighlandExperience]

So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast.

 

12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!

People are just nervous because the last few years have been turds. Plus we have come to expect nothing from January and February in recent memory.

 

January 2012 for seattle feels like an eternity.

[MossMan]

Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKid

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/

[Kayla]

Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKid

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/

 

Pretty hilarious that people were calling for a December torch fest on the 2nd that year! Just another reminder how quick the models can change as we head into winter.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKid

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/

So true.... I love the quote (below) from Dec 2nd 2008... So many more just like that were calling for December to suck. WE all know how it turned out though. So, any poo-pooing winter this early may be a bit premature. Patience folks!

 

"Wow there's a pretty strong signal that at least the majority of December will be warm. That doesn't mean we can rule out a small cold spell. Hey, how about the first 23 days average significantly above normal, and the last 8 days significantly below, starting with Christmas EVE!!!!!"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like our chance this year is Dec. 25-Feb. 5. I think we'll at least get one solid modified outbreak. 

[Deweydog]

Not as chilly today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Out to hour 108 on the 18z GFS it looks to be a marginally cooler run. 

[Jesse]

Not as chilly today.

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

 

Will December be the next domino to fall?

[Deweydog]

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

Might as well...

 

It would be kind of a shame for what was an epic first half of the month to get lost in mediocrity due to a chillyish second half.

[ShawniganLake]

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

******* Hadley cells.

[van city]

Anybody seen the Euro weeklies?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Anybody seen the Euro weeklies?

No. Have you?

 

IbrChris, Westcoastexpat?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Weakening polar vortex may yield longer, harsher winters in North America

 

Longer, harsher winters may be in store for the portions of North America as the polar vortex continues to weaken and shifts, according to a new study.

 

The polar vortex is a large pocket of frigid air that hovers above the polar regions, and is most prominent in the winter months.

Researchers at China's Lanzhou University penned the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change last month.

 

Full article here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/weakening_shifting_polar_vortex_study_longer_harsher_winters_north_america/61622468

[BLI snowman]

18z sure gets dangerously chilly.

 

Winter saving run right there.

[TT-SEA]

The ECMWF shows one patch of lowland snow in the next 10 days... between Mt Vernon and Bellingham.    Bryant is going to discover that he lives in a small area that is very favorable for snow.

[Timmy]

Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!

Yeah and it totally ruined my day

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z isn't bad. Nothing to thrilling..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah and it totally ruined my day

 

But then I remembered Trump is now President-elect and I decided life is worth living.