SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 All the composite analogs are, are the analogs for the modeled pattern, so if it doesn't verify than no goods. I think some people think it is some kind of forecast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Portland: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattle: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, Ca: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.pngLol same time.... instantaneous simulataneous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 All the composite analogs are, are the analogs for the modeled pattern, so if it doesn't verify than no goods. I think some people think it is some kind of forecast. Yeah, but 2008 has been the top analog for multiple runs now. :o :o ------- ------- ------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This kind of sarcasm to me is hilarious... always has been. My wife catches me cracking up and asks what i'm laughing at and she doesn't get it..I was hoping someone would catch that. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 All the composite analogs are, are the analogs for the modeled pattern, so if it doesn't verify than no goods. I think some people think it is some kind of forecast.You can use them to find more persistent analog years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 4:01 PM [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*00z GFS in 3 hours 27 minutes00z GEM in 4 hours 27 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 44 minutesColder runs ahead - MBG. Will that be tonight's 00s runs, or tomorrow. I have no idea. I literally don't have a clue what I'm doing or talking about. You keep your expectations of yourself super low and you'll surprise yourself sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 MJVentrice British Columbia and Alberta should prepare for arctic blast as high pressure spills down the Rockies in med-range. https://t.co/4kYpctTVP326/11/16 4:10 pm https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/802665950671699968 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 A part of me is excited for the PacNW and in turn for the forum. Another part of me wants Lucy to pull the football and for me to get dumped on with snow.:'-( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 A part of me is excited for the PacNW and in turn for the forum. Another part of me wants Lucy to pull the football and for me to get dumped on with snow. We love you. But not Philadelphia. You're just in the wrong place at the wrong time. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Snow has started here. It'll be a bit before it sticks on roads though. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 24 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Thanks all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 A part of me is excited for the PacNW and in turn for the forum. Another part of me wants Lucy to pull the football and for me to get dumped on with snow.Time to move back!! You have 10 days! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Thanks allDon't mention it. We saw it in the store and it just SCREAMED you. We included a gift receipt in case it doesn't fit and you need to exchange it, although it was the only XXXL we could find. You should probably lose a little weight. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Rain finally starting to fall. Temp down to 44 after a high of 51. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 If the analogs at day 8 are good and many of those years had major cold waves/snow a few days later then it kind of does mean something. The progression at day 8 is likely to lead to something similar to those years... so if we can just get to day 8... Correct. Discounting the analogs as meaningless is essentially the same as completely discounting the models. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 He's right though. Those analogs are a snapshot of a specific pattern which may have progressed entirely different leading up to and following that narrow cross section. They really don't mean anything from a forecast perspective. Then why does the CPC use them? I think they are helpful in that you can see the different outcomes from similar patterns. If a large percentage of patterns led to similar progressions from that point, that's a meaningful forecast tool. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 A part of me is excited for the PacNW and in turn for the forum. Another part of me wants Lucy to pull the football and for me to get dumped on with snow.You have your own forum, leave us be with your selfishness 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 He is right in that they aren't a forecasting tool, but you can get an idea of what is likely by using them if 8 out of 10 analogs are arctic blasts.That's more about pattern recognition. Regardless of what analogs are shown, people know what an Arctic outbreak pattern signature is from a 500mb pattern standpoint. In other words, we know if the ensembles depict a meridional +PNA pattern, analogs aren't going to be Arctic. With a meridional -PNA pattern? Arctic analogs. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That's more about pattern recognition. Regardless of what analogs are shown, people know what an Arctic outbreak pattern signature is from a 500mb pattern standpoint. In other words, we know if the ensembles depict a meridional +PNA pattern, analogs aren't going to be Arctic. With a meridional -PNA pattern? Arctic analogs.I find comfort in that the anolog years being shown don't show years that shove a huge chunk of arctic air to our east and leave us under a death ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Then why does the CPC use them? I think they are helpful in that you can see the different outcomes from similar patterns. If a large percentage of patterns led to similar progressions from that point, that's a meaningful forecast tool.I dunno. Probably to give those who don't know much of anything about pattern recognition something to chew on. Otherwise it's just telling you that a cold pattern has verified with cold weather in the past. Models after all are entirely about analogs. The only reason they have any chance in hell of predicting the future is because it's happened before. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 PDX down four degrees in the last hour. Arctic air moving in earlier than expected??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 I find comfort in that the anolog years being shown don't show years that shove a huge chunk of arctic air to our east and leave us under a death ridge. Then you don't really understand them. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 PDX down four degrees in the last hour. Arctic air moving in earlier than expected??? PDX down four degrees in the last hour. Arctic air moving in earlier than expected??? I have dropped 8 degrees in the past hour! Only 9 degrees away from my first freeze! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 44 and still raining! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Then you don't really understand them.What is there not to understand? They depict similar years to the pattern being shown. Some people like using that as a tool. You've been an a** for a few days now, it's getting old 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Clearing skies on a light north wind here. Today feels a lot different than most of this fall has. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Clearing skies on a light north wind here. Today feels a lot different than most of this fall has.Still pouring here but the north facing house windows are now wet so I must now have a north wind. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Temp has dropped from 55 to 44 at SLE in the past 2 hours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Still raining here. 45/39 today with 1.2" of rain so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 18z Composite AnalogsThis is by far the best we've seen yet. Also, for the first time the 6-10 Day improved dramatically. Yes, the correlation score needs work. However, the 8-14 Day is incredibly incredible. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif It's always great to see the analog of the 1968-69 Winter and Dec 2008 show up as the top correlations! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 The updated run of the GFS is the best model run to date. It goes full blown Arctic mode. The trend is our friend and their all going in the right direction. The updated runs of the last GEM, EURO and GFS are now all the best runs to date in terms of how close the Arctic air is to us. Let's continue this trend for all the 00z runs tonight! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/240/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/288/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/384/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Temp down to 39 now with heavy rain. To bad the airmass isn't just a touch cooler. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 Sexton Summit was 45 with rain earlier, 33 and snow now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 You have your own forum, leave us be with your selfishness We'll kick your a**es in the end, so it's all good. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 That's one monster anticyclonic breaker on the 12z EPS mean. Will be hard to fail if that comes to fruition. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 27, 2016 Report Share Posted November 27, 2016 We'll kick your a**es in the end, so it's all good. That goes without saying so be nice to us! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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