November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

D**n that Bering Sea/Aleutian block is huge, massive compared to previous runs....

 

Also, Looks cold Gorge east into Columbia Basin. MIGHT be trending towards the GFS/WRF

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016113012/ecmwf_T850_nwus_8.png

[Deweydog]

Likely.

WRF has a strong PDX-DLS gradient funneling arctic air into PDX keeping the cold layer thick.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016113012/images_d2/slp.180.0000.gif

Looks more like a cold air damming setup.

[Gradient Keeper]

That's a sexy map. Too bad it's 7 days out.

Yup

[Gradient Keeper]

Block was a touch stronger on this run... and GFS has had that trend the past 6 runs. I like the trend guys not gonna lie.

[Deweydog]

Block was a touch stronger on this run... and GFS has had that trend the past 6 runs. I like the trend guys not gonna lie.

Thank you for not lying.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks more like a cold air damming setup.

Was about to say the same thing.

 

925's are colder along the East side of the Coast Range and Olympics than in the Gorge.

 

Either way, Wednesday definitely has quite a bit more potential for widespread snow than Sunday night/Monday.

[Heavy Snow]

Wow, the updated run of the 12z GEM is also showing an overrunning event around the same time frame. Looks like a massive sleet/ice storm for the Gorge once they transition over.

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/192/prateptype.us_nw.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/198/prateptype.us_nw.pnghttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016113012/204/prateptype.us_nw.png

[Timmy]

First confirmed slushy splat test on the windshield! It has begun!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 8-14 day Composite Analog was decent, some improvement. Certainly not arctic YET, but the Positive anomaly edging bit closer to 160 W. Potential the pattern improves. 1964, 1968 popped up twice

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs814.gif

[Kayla]

One thing is for certain, an incredible blocking period is coming up. Been a long time since I have seen such a cold Euro run end to end. Sunday night looks like a 34º slop event below 1,000' but there will be plenty of people that score eventually out of this pattern.

 

This run even shows a chance that our "transitionary" event Wed night into Thursday is not in fact a transition event but just a snow event.

[Heavy Snow]

One thing is for certain, an incredible blocking period is coming up. Been a long time since I have seen such a cold Euro run end to end. Sunday night looks like a 34º slop event below 1,000' but there will be plenty of people that score eventually out of this pattern.

 

This run even shows a chance that our "transitionary" event Wed night into Thursday is not in fact a transition event but just a snow event.

 

Cool, I'll take all snow. I don't like to deal with freezing rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z in 2 hours 26 minutes!!!!

 

(Sorry I wasn't here for 12z GFS. I actually slept for once.)

[BLI snowman]

18z in 2 hours 26 minutes!!!!

 

(Sorry I wasn't here for 12z GFS. I actually slept for once.)

 

And we actually had a good run for once 

[Weather101]

[stuffradio]

Here's a blog post about our coming pattern from a met at The Weather Network. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2016/11/30/cold-arctic-blast-potential

[Gradient Keeper]

And we actually had a good run for once 

That's true! I'm going to bed early and will set alarm for 9:20 PM. That way the operational, GEFS, and 6-10/8-14 day Composite Analogs all will have completed without any chance of me jinxing things.

[HighlandExperience]

Here's a blog post about our coming pattern from a met at The Weather Network. http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2016/11/30/cold-arctic-blast-potential

Wow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations.

[luminen]

Here's a webcam page from Alaska. Anchorage is sitting at 2F but there isn't much snow.

 

http://www.borealisbroadband.net/Vid-DTN2.htm

[stuffradio]

Wow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations.

We're just paying for the fleet of snow removal equipment after 2008 before the 2010 olympics.

[FroYoBro]

Wow 1000 days since Airport in Vancouver BC has recorded significant snow. Really goes to show how pathetic the past few seasons have been for northern locations.

 

That is pretty insane for a city that is so far north. 

[stuffradio]

The CPC released an updated one month outlook for next month. Below normal temps for the west coast and above normal precip.

[Deweydog]

The CPC released an updated one month outlook for next month. Below normal temps for the west coast and above normal precip.

They must have access to the CFS.

[Jbolin]

EURO says nope.

[Timmy]

EURO says nope.

Nope to what?

[Jbolin]

Nope to what?

The "event" for mid next week time frame (Wed/Thur)

[Timmy]

12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016113012/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_34.png

Link isn't working for me

[HighlandExperience]

12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2016113012/nw/ecmwf_tsnow_nw_34.png

Please repost

[Bryant]

Re-attached. Let me know if it still doesn't work.

Works on my end, thanks

[chopper 918]

12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.

Low res.

[Timmy]

Re-attached. Let me know if it still doesn't work.

Works now

[Timmy]

12z Euro snowfall map through Thursday afternoon. Most of this falls Thursday morning, with about an inch falling on Monday.

6-9" for me over the next week, I am interested to see the wrf hi res durning at time in coming days

[Jesse]

How were the Euro ensembles?

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS wasn't bad. Quite chilly over us days 5-7. I notice promising trends beyond day 8. 500mb anomaly shows the positive anomaly/ridge much closer to the "sweet spot" than previous runs. Not ideal yet, but it's an improvement.

 

Comparison to 12z yesterday the block was much further west

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016112912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

and now today. Yep. Closer to 160 W.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016113012/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those.

 

For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches.

 

Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.

Thanks for the info

[Brennan]

Remember the big EAST WIND SNOW EVENT on December 22nd 2008? Day 7  looks similar to that, does it not? Only that low kind of hung off the coast and further south a bit... .

[MossMan]

Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those.

 

For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches.

 

Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.

I'm trying hard not to get excited...but I'm caving.

[Gradient Keeper]

Remember the big EAST WIND SNOW EVENT on December 22nd 2008? Day 7  looks similar to that, does it not? Only that low kind of hung off the coast and further south a bit... .

Heck ya. I had back to back blizzards where I live during 2008. Yeah slide that low further south!

[bainbridgekid]

Looking at the Euro ensembles for Everett, WA out of the 51 members, about 22 show 6+ inches at some point next week. Might be hints of a PSCZ in those.

 

For Portland (metro) folks about 5 members show 6+ inches, and about 26 shows 2+ inches.

 

Of course, all subject to change this far out but a good rough idea of where they sit right now.

I'm looking forward to hopefully finally taking advantage of the CZ here this Winter.

 

Last Winter was my first in Mountlake Terrace but was far too craptastic to ever benefit from it.

 

I know the Euro Ensemble is run at a higher resolution than the GFS ensembles, but I'd still be a bit surprised if it could pick up on small scale features like CZ's accurately.

[Brennan]

Heck ya. I had back to back blizzards where I live during 2008. Yeah slide that low further south!

If I remember right it kind of just ended up being stationary out there for a bit. Didn't come inland. SOMEONE HELP ME OUT? POST A  GRAPHIC?

[Bham_Guy]

This is the best one I have: