Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Still seeing that Kona Low. No idea what the NWS/NCEP forecaster is seeing to forecast it dissipates. I wish he were correct. Need that upper level trough off Siberia to back off too. Not going to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 What are your thoughts as far as snowfall in PDX on Monday?Below 500', mix/wet snow slushy accumulations possible. Too much southerly flow aloft on soundings. The only way we could overpower the southerlies I guess is if we had good precip rates and strong CAAdvection 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Here is a significant change from previous runs. In fact, no other runs have showed this yet. Day 6 very deep 975mb low offshore. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png HR 150 970mb northern Vancouver Island http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS is flat out clueless after day 4 Most consistent model the past 3 days has actually been the GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 At 6z NWS initialized the Kona Low at 1014mb. I can see the circulation on IR Loop also. Let's hope it develops very slowly. You can also see the building Aleutian ridge which becomes the GOA/Alaskan block, and as well the flat offshore ridge. However, as of 1 AM still do not see any pressure falls north of Hawaii. http://i.imgur.com/D8Nc95u.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 At 6z NWS initialized the Kona Low at 1014mb. I can see the circulation on IR Loop also. Let's hope it develops very slowly. You can also see the building Aleutian ridge which becomes the GOA/Alaskan block, and as well the flat offshore ridge. However, as of 1 AM still do not see any pressure falls north of Hawaii. http://i.imgur.com/D8Nc95u.gifSo, I have a dumb question. Why is a Kona Low a bad thing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 So, I have a dumb question. Why is a Kona Low a bad thing?Not a dumb question at all. It's fine if it remains well south near Hawaii, but models show it eventually develops moving northeastward. In this case it's bad because it shoves the ridge east(along with a trough departing off Siberia) and worst of all the flat ridge off the OR/CA coast does not suppress as much as it could which also doesn't allow the arctic trough to continue to dig south-southwest offshore down the coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Hmmm, Interesting tidbit from the Anchorage NWS "The air mass is colderand denser in reality than the models have represented." I wonder if there might be a bit more punch to the arctic trough than models are showing and thus it might dig more southward than we are currently seeing. Also, several 00z EPS members deliver arctic air over us after day 9. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 This is interesting. The Canadian Ensemble 6-10 day Composite Analog is much improved. Look even 2008 popped up. The positive anomaly/block position is pretty good and cross polar flow too. Granted the correlation score skill level is low, but this sort of seems to follow the colder/snowier operational run we've seen the past few days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hght_comp_can610.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 6z after day 7 continues to show an incredibly deep and arctic cold pool persisting over the Columbia Basin. Excellent to tap into if the pattern upstream becomes favorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*12z GFS in 4 hours12z GEM in 5 hours12z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutesI think I'll be here for 12z runs.... root for COLD!!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 [ Model Countdown ] Next up.... *12z GFS in 4 hours 12z GEM in 5 hours 12z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutes I think I'll be here for 12z runs.... root for COLD!!!!Get some rest and thanks for all your awesome info and model reading!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Get some rest and thanks for all your awesome info and model reading!!You're welcome. I can't rest.... Doing analysis or things to keep my mind preoccupied is the only thing helping. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS, ECMWF, GDPS all speaking different languages. Definitely a complicated pattern this month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Interesting to note, the hires wrf (1 1/3km) still shows snow accumulation over pdx. And about 2" at the airport. Gives me 4-5" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 On another note, the 00z GEM sure is nice. 6-10 inches for most of Western WA by Friday afternoon. Lock it in. It's happening. Done deal. In the believable range, it shows 2-3 inches by Tuesday morning for most places away from the water.That shows like 9-10 inches for my part of the island. I don't even know if we have snow plows on Bainbridge very often. I haven't lived here since before the snow stopped falling in Western Washington. I don't mind being stuck at home! I would love for this to prove out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 12z brings a swath of moisture through Nw oregon Tuesday morning and gives me a 36 hour total of 8"+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 And gives pdx over 6" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Deformation band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 And give pdx over 6"Weird. That has been my exact forecast for Portland. Definitely looking at a 6 inch snowstorm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Weird that has been my exact forecast for Portland. Definitely looking at a 6 inch snowstorm.Haha, right... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Yep, most will wake up to 6 inches at their backdoor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 The 12z definitely looks good for snow Tuesday morning as the low dies southward right near the Portland area. It actually looks to show fairly heavy rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 You're welcome. I can't rest.... Doing analysis or things to keep my mind preoccupied is the only thing helping.Sleep deprivation can be taxing on the brain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Hmmm, Interesting tidbit from the Anchorage NWS "The air mass is colderand denser in reality than the models have represented." I wonder if there might be a bit more punch to the arctic trough than models are showing and thus it might dig more southward than we are currently seeing. Also, several 00z EPS members deliver arctic air over us after day 9.Well, The Weather Channel isn't completely sold on that idea, they've actually raised their forecast high for wednesday for areas in western Washington and raised tuesday night's lows.... What a bunch of backwards-thinking buffoons. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Well, The Weather Channel isn't completely sold on that idea, they've actually raised their forecast high for wednesday for areas in western Washington and raised tuesday night's lows.... What a bunch of backwards-thinking buffoons.What's the weather channel? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Well, The Weather Channel isn't completely sold on that idea, they've actually raised their forecast high for wednesday for areas in western Washington and raised tuesday night's lows.... What a bunch of backwards-thinking buffoons.Those forecasts are probably computer generated. Nobody is thinking and making a forecast for 100's of thousands of cities around the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 I'm liking what the 12z GFS is trying to do midrange. Building heights over the Pacific again and a low coming straight at us... Looks progressive though. As soon as heights build they get smashed east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 WU keeps increasing the snowfall amounts for me next Thursday. Was 3-5", now 5-8"....maybe it'll be a foot by the time it arrives. http://i.imgur.com/y4qBDCV.png Looks like I'll definitely be using the ATV snow plow. I'll be sure to post pics and maybe a short video. Its the most wonderful time of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 I could live with the GFS toying with this scenario... drop that low a tad south. we have plenty of cold air to draw from NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016120312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_19.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS is dangling some red meat in the clown range. Much less amplified EAMT/Branstrator Wave. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 If anybody wants to experience a Blizzard head to the Gorge next week. The updated run of the 00z KING EURO OP shows Cascade Locks getting 38 inches of snow over the next 10 days. The ensemble mean was even higher at 56"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 GFS is dangling some red meat in the clown range. Much less amplified EAMT/Branstrator Wave.Also has the tropical forcing/poleward WAFs further east, closer to 140E/150E instead of 120E. If this comes to fruition, it bodes much better for you guys. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Hmmm, Interesting tidbit from the Anchorage NWS "The air mass is colderand denser in reality than the models have represented." I wonder if there might be a bit more punch to the arctic trough than models are showing and thus it might dig more southward than we are currently seeing. Also, several 00z EPS members deliver arctic air over us after day 9. Juneau NWS:"Low level warm air advection associated with yesterday's storm hasfinally run out. High temperatures today will occur early in theday and then begin a steady fall through the afternoon and overnight." About 37 degrees this morning. Will be the last high above 30 I feel for a while. With events like this, it's cool knowing that I'm upstream of you guys. Gonna feel some arctic air tomorrow! For now I'm just hoping this heavy rain turns to snow before things clear out. The NWS here mentioned a convergence zone somewhere near Juneau a couple discussions ago. Would be awesome if that happened. 1 Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpgMark Nelsen uses and trusts his RPM model very highly, so maybe we will see a little something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 UW WRF is very generous for my location... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 Mark Nelsen uses and trusts his RPM model very highly, so maybe we will see a little somethingThe last couple winters the wrf has been king at least in lower elevations near me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 3, 2016 Report Share Posted December 3, 2016 12z GFS definitely shows a nice little snowstorm for PDX on Tuesday now. 6" of snowfall being shown to fall on Tuesday now after 1-2" falls on Monday. 925s are -3c on Tuesday so plenty cold enough to support sticking snow. Trend has definitely been on Portlands side these last 48 hours! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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