Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It'd be nice. The current trends are certainly encouraging. Dry or white, por favor. Exactly. At this point, the way the trends are going is best case scenario. It's not wiping out the system, just slowing it down and weakening it enough have trouble clearing out the low level cold. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 PDX down to 35. Overachieving!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 PDX down to 35. Overachieving!!Might see flakes before even going to sleep! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Indeed. Any updated thoughts on tomorrow morning? I'm glad to be at 300'.Nah. If precip is heavy and organized, I can see the "plains" getting a quick inch but I still think the mesoscale stuff is overdoing it. I'd love to be wrong... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Thursday trending nicely. Could be a lot of frozen precip that day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 PDX down to 35. Overachieving!! Clearing! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Clearing! Enough about us though. How are your snow prospects looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It's 35F currently. The precip might not arrive here until around 4 or 5 am tomorrow. On Tuesday the mets are saying I should have a low of 15 or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Excited for the first low land snow event here. Down to 33 in Kirkland right now where I am at. Went up to Skykomish today which had about 2" of snow. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nah. If precip is heavy and organized, I can see the "plains" getting a quick inch but I still think the mesoscale stuff is overdoing it. I'd love to be wrong... Are you foreseeing southerly flow or precip organization/intensity to be the biggest issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It looks like the models are starting to get the timing of the over-running event down. The updated run of the 00z GFS shows moisture starting in the Southern Willamette Valley around Wednesday 10pm, a few hours later than the NAM. By Thursday 4am, most if not all of PDX Metro should be seeing all snow. Then by 10am, the GFS has PDX Metro under freezing rain. It's definitely being too fast in rushing out the cold air. Should be all snow for most of PDX Metro on Thursday due to the strong cold Gorge East winds. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/078/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/084/prateptype_cat.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/090/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 I'm rooting for a weaker low also. Less down sloping with a weaker low. As long as we still get enough moisture I will be happy. Had enough of the dry shafting of the past two seasons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 When does WRF initialize? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Are you foreseeing southerly flow or precip organization/intensity to be the biggest issue?The air mass itself is pretty borderline (at best) and there isn't any low level or wet bulb help to really speak of. So if we want to see any prolonged accumulations, more than an inch or so, it needs dynamic help dragging down mid level cold air (11-19-03). I really doubt we see that kind of intensity. But, the models still see something so who knows... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Weather.Com app says light snow shower I see nothing outside Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It's 35F currently. The precip might not arrive here until around 4 or 5 am tomorrow. On Tuesday the mets are saying I should have a low of 15 or soDown to 29F here now. "If we get any precip it will be snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It already appears the GFS is on a good track for the second possible event. it appears the cold in BC stays put all week. Even a less than impressive offshore ridge could easily drive it in. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Got to love the 00z. Might not get as big of snow thursday but might not warm up either.like the trend. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 It already appears the GFS is on a good track for the second possible event. it appears the cold in BC stays put all week. Even a less than impressive offshore ridge could easily drive it in. This could be a December to remember. Just like the old days we dream about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 For PDX, looks like around 4" of snow in addition to any ice from Wednesday 10pm to Thursday 10pm depending on which snow model you look at, the 10:1 ratio or Kuchera ratio. Even higher amounts up North. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/102/sn10_024h.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/102/snku_024h.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Enough about us though. How are your snow prospects looking? Given I already have snow on the ground...Better than yours. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Whens DJ gonna drop in and give an analysis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Wow!!! The blocking being shown by around day 6 is beyond ridiculous. Never seen the likes of it. Could be an epic run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 30F here. Cooled off quick with the clear skies. Hoping to wake up to at least some snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 0z looking much improved at day 7. Big -EPO ridge in Alaska is favorably tilted further east, setting up to deliver very cold air further west below it. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS ALERT!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 34 here with a rain/snow mix falling. Some wet flakes mixed in. I imagine that couldn't be a bad sign at this stage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 0z looking much improved at day 7. Big -EPO ridge in Alaska is favorably tilted further east, setting up to deliver very cold air further west below it. I'm starting to get really excited about this. We are talking about some big players here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Whens DJ gonna drop in and give an analysis? Live blogging frame by frame on facebook. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 get_orig_img.gif Arctic Blast on its way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 get_orig_img.gif Weather pornography! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Wow!!! The blocking being shown by around day 6 is beyond ridiculous. Never seen the likes of it. Could be an epic run.Post the map!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just hope this doesn't ruin January... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Live blogging frame by frame on facebook.Oh.....well I dont have Fakebook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_T850_nwus_33.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 HOLY FUCKKKKK 6 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 34 here with a rain/snow mix falling. Some wet flakes mixed in. I imagine that couldn't be a bad sign at this stage. I sure wouldn't think so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 5, 2016 Report Share Posted December 5, 2016 HOLY FUCKKKKK OMFG!!! Wow!! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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