December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luminen]

32F heavy snow falling

 

Really? It's moderate rain here... 

[snow_wizard]

The NWS forecast from Tuesday through Friday of next week is actually a touch colder than what we had this week. Not bad.

[westcoastexpat]

32F heavy snow falling

 

Same here! Lots of snow

[Randyc321]

Hood Canal is about to get buried.

[HighlandExperience]

The NWS forecast from Tuesday through Friday of next week is actually a touch colder than what we had this week. Not bad.

 

Lets just hope we can score some solid snow cover. Seriously frustrating sitting at 33 degrees with a DP of 32 with heavy rain.

[MossMan]

Lets just hope we can score some solid snow cover.

This!! Even if it's just what we have now, I would be ok with that!

[westcoastexpat]

Hood Canal is about to get buried.

 

With rain?

[Parksvillewx]

Snowing again here. Quite heavy. Temp holding @ 34F

[snow_wizard]

Ferndale getting some decent snow currently. Moved from there a few months ago and of course they have done much better than my current location. I can't win

That does suck.

[snow_wizard]

Lets just hope we can score some solid snow cover. Seriously frustrating sitting at 33 degrees with a DP of 32 with heavy rain.

I'm not counting on it.

[Heavy Snow]

If you watch the last few frames the low is pulling cold air south, the rain/snow line is moving south...

00z NAM Tuesday

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121000/084/refcmp_ptype.conus.png

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121000/084/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

 

 

 

PDX is 30F with east winds as the precip approaches

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016121000/084/sfct_b.us_nw.png

 

Trended towards the EURO. That's a great sign. 

[Front Ranger]

Bellingham area radar filling in as well.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Trended towards the EURO. That's a great sign.

Yah.. just fricken fantastic to see all the moisture 200 miles away from the Puget Sound. I can barely contain my excitement...

[MossMan]

Yah.. just fricken fantastic to see all the moisture 200 miles away from the Puget Sound. I can barely contain my excitement...

It will trend north and bury all of us.

[Weather101]

Wow that is a heavy line moving inland off the coast.

 

Anywhere that's cold enough for snow could get a quick inch or two with that.

Yup getting nailed here

[luvssnow_spokane]

It will trend north and bury all of us.

I hope! -- I am actually just sitting here starring out the window and watching the rain drops fall in the street light and hoping... Yes, I am beyond desperate for something good

[Heavy Snow]

Yah.. just fricken fantastic to see all the moisture 200 miles away from the Puget Sound. I can barely contain my excitement...

It will trend north and bury all of us.

 

Like what MossMan said. Also this set-up looks like lots of wrap-around snow as it tracks inland 

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/440/wraparound.jpg

[Randyc321]

With rain?

 

Areas around Seabeck should be snow.  That place holds onto cold like my ex wife.

[BLI snowman]

Any snow falling in Bellingham yet?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Like what MossMan said. Also this set-up looks like lots of wrap-around snow as it tracks inland

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/440/wraparound.jpg

The low is to far south on the run. So trending a little further north will increase our odds. I highly doubt much accumulation at that distance if any...

[luvssnow_spokane]

In other news... 34 here with a 31dp

[Heavy Snow]

The 12z EURO and the 00z NAM at the same time-frame for Tuesday at 4am. Not a perfect match but close.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016120912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_5.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121000/namconus_z500_mslp_wus_53.png

[Tyler Mode]

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

 

Indeed very rare to see Mark put that on the 7 day this far out. He almost always ignores long range cold on the models. Either he's been drinking or we're in for some fun. 

 

This was the 7 Day two days ago, but he did admit on air that models showed much colder temps than his forecast.

[Bham_Guy]

Any snow falling in Bellingham yet?

 

Mixed where I'm at. Looks like it's about 3 miles north of Bakerview.

[Tyler Mode]

What a pleasant day.  High of 35 and rain all day. 

[Deweydog]

GFS still says we dodge the Tuesday bullet.

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty good size batch of moderate to heavy 33 degree rain moving in here now.

[Jesse]

PDX back down to 32. 

[Phil]

My lips are already chapped to hell. Winter sucks.

[Heavy Snow]

The 00z GFS sends the Tuesday system into Northern California. It keeps trending North though from it's 12z, 18z and now 00z run. Different from EURO, NAM and NAVGEM. GFS on its own. Let's see what the GEM does.

[Phil]

00z GooFuS is already more progressive looking through 60hrs.

[luminen]

My lips are already chapped to hell. Winter sucks.

 

Don't move to Colorado or the Midwest then...

 

Still a rain/snow mix here. I went up to 245' and it's the same as well. N. Van is weird. Same thing happened on Monday while Vancouver was getting pounded in the *** but eventually it turned to snow here. My wife said I'm like a five year old with the snow.   

[Heavy Snow]

00z GooFuS is already more progressive looking through 60hrs.

 

GooFuS sounds about right. 

[Front Ranger]

Blocking ridge more amplified and negatively tilted on 0z GFS at day 4. Looks good.

[Deweydog]

Stronger block talk is back!

[Timmy]

I'm in scapooose now, I was just told by my brother in law that lives with us that there is a power line down on a car with someone in it and that on skyline blvd there are many trees down in the road. I would bet we have had near 1" qpf up there today. All ZR. Probably staying in town tonight

[Phil]

Don't move to Colorado or the Midwest then...

 

Still a rain/snow mix here. I went up to 245' and it's the same as well. N. Van is weird. Same thing happened on Monday while Vancouver was getting pounded in the *** but eventually it turned to snow here. My wife said I'm like a five year old with the snow.

Lol, hard to adjust after 5+ months of swamp weather.

 

Oh, and I'd like some snow too if you don't mind sharing.

[luvssnow_spokane]

GooFuS sounds about right.

King GooFuS?

[Jesse]

Don't move to Colorado or the Midwest then...

 

Still a rain/snow mix here. I went up to 245' and it's the same as well. N. Van is weird. Same thing happened on Monday while Vancouver was getting pounded in the *** but eventually it turned to snow here. My wife said I'm like a five year old with the snow.   

 

That's gotta be frustrating.

 

Meanwhile our old place in Stevenson must have over a foot of snow now.

[Phil]

Blocking ridge more amplified and negatively tilted on 0z GFS at day 4. Looks good.

Yeah, wave synchronization did improve markedly. Might be enough to counter the longer waveguide.