January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not talking about this weekend. I'm talking about this Wednesday. The models two days before showed a very similar setup in 2014 as we saw with the 12z models this morning. 00z models then began to shift things north and the trend continued the following day.

 

Yeah at this point there are really no similarities with this weekend, but who knows that could change. Wednesday...Lets hope it trends a little north.

[Brennan]

On Feb 6th??

Somehow I don't remember the date...

[The Swamp]

I just seen a pan handler on a corner saying they were broke and homeless yet she was talking on a smart phone and had nice clean clothing on. Something just looked fishy.

 

My wife asked me one day how much money she thought I could raise in one day on a good intersection dressed nicely with a cool sign.

 

It's something to think about.

[TT-SEA]

Didn't GFS MOS also show an afternoon high of 37 or 38 for yesterday? They only topped out at 35. Warm bias!

 

 

Persistent fog at SEA until mid afternoon.... its the greatest weakness of the GFS MOS.   I knew today would be more accurate.   Its a great guide except with inversions.  Its ALWAYS too high in that situation.    

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm not talking about this weekend. I'm talking about this Wednesday. The models two days before showed a very similar setup in 2014 as we saw with the 12z models this morning. 00z models then began to shift things north and the trend continued the following day.

Same here. Southern stream moisture interaction is far too intriguing. I could easily see this turning into a big snow event-storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow band setting up in S. Salem

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not really..

Maybe I am mistaken but I think that it has been a long time since that type of scenario has happened on a region wide scale for the puget sound. (?)

[luvssnow_spokane]

Heavy snow band setting up in S. Salem

 

Seems like southern Oregon done really well in the last 5 years. I would have never expected it but I must admit I am jealous as hell!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Somehow I don't remember the date...

 

4-8" Eugene to PDX. 12-15" amounts locally around Albany and Corvallis.....I got warm nosed the next day around noon, about 24 hours before most other people down here...Painful memory. 

[TT-SEA]

Seems like southern Oregon does really well in the last 5 years. I would have never expected it but I must admit I am jealous as hell!

 

 

I was just going to say that the Willamette Valley has just owned the Seattle area for years now in terms of snow.   

[Perturbed Member]

Somehow I don't remember the date...

 

It was PDX south. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Same here. Southern stream moisture interaction is far too intriguing. I could easily see this turning into a big snow event-storm.

I have to agree... Potential is there but the fact that it will warm up rapidly after (up here) is a bummer. If we could just get a huge arctic push after it, I would be quite content for the rest of winter. 

[Perturbed Member]

Seems like southern Oregon done really well in the last 5 years. I would have never expected it but I must admit I am jealous as hell!

 

For the most part PDX has been horrible for snow during this period too. Areas further south have kicked our butts. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was just going to say that the Willamette Valley has just owned the Seattle area for years now in terms of snow.   

Yeah... I wonder when Our turn will be. This snow drought is painful as hell specially when we such a great long lasting block. To see it all slip away again is exhausting!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! *end rant

[Front Ranger]

Heavy snow band setting up in S. Salem

 

 

Looks like someone could use some windshield fluid.

[luvssnow_spokane]

For the most part PDX has been horrible for snow during this period too. Areas further south have kicked our butts. 

True!  But even Portland has faired way better than most anyone up here ... Well accept Tim of course   

[Heavy Snow]

Somehow I don't remember the date...

[Kayla]

Heavy snow band setting up in S. Salem

 

 

Wow!

[HighlandExperience]

 

Somehow I don't remember the date...

That map is depressing for us northerners.

[Perturbed Member]

True!  But even Portland has faired way better than most anyone up here ... Well accept Tim of course   

 

You think? Feb 2014 was great for PDX but that and the 2 inches I got last month were the only real snow events I've had since Dec 2009. We did have snow in early 2016 but I didn't even get an inch. Pretty pathetic if you ask me. My condolence to you if you are doing even worse than that. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Model Countdown-
Next up....
*00z NAM in 39 minutes
00z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes
00z GEM in 3 hours 23 minutes
00z ECMWF in 4 hours 41 minutes

 

Big runs tonight!
Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

[Heavy Snow]

That map is depressing for us northerners.

Sorry.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You think? Feb 2014 was great for PDX but that and the 2 inches I got last month were the only real snow events I've had since Dec 2009. We did have snow in early 2016 but I didn't even get an inch. Pretty pathetic if you ask me. My condolence to you if you are doing even worse than that. 

Yeah, overall it is worse... Maybe an Inch and half since 2012 and that includes this year. But that being said, if what you say is true, that is still pretty pathetic.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Model Countdown-

Next up....

*00z NAM in 39 minutes

00z GFS in 2 hours 23 minutes

00z GEM in 3 hours 23 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 41 minutes

 

Big runs tonight!

Think Cold and SNOW!!!!

 

I am praying for a miracle that blows all of our minds!

[ShawniganLake]

Somehow I don't remember the date...

Would have been in the 22nd-24th window. We had 20" over 3 days here.

[TT-SEA]

I am praying for a miracle that blows all of our minds!

 

 

I want to see a miracle for the weekend.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Modified arctic air is definitely making its way into the PDX area. 29.8 here, dp 20, mostly cloudy with east wind 25-35mph near west Gresham. I am really banking on the snow covered Gorge/Columbia Basin making things colder than modeled. I think it's likely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That map is depressing for us northerners.

There were also widespread 2-4" amounts the next day.

[TT-SEA]

Modified arctic air is definitely making its way into the PDX area. 29.8 here, dp 20, mostly cloudy with east wind 25-35mph near west Gresham. I am really banking on the snow covered Gorge/Columbia Basin making things colder than modeled. I think it's likely.

 

 

A cold basin makes life so much better on this side of the mountains.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am Still clinging onto the 10day period of Euro that, the northern low slides down between Oregon and WA bringing cold a snow with it. You know I am bat s**t desperate when I am actually posting 240hr Euro models hoping they can deliver something. Forgive me!!

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Maybe someone already posted this, but SEA officially got 3" on New Year's morning. They've had snow on 9 different days this winter, for a total of 4" accumulation (bunch of days with just a trace).

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah, overall it is worse... Maybe an Inch and half since 2012 and that includes this year. But that being said, if what you say is true, that is still pretty pathetic.

 

Yeah I think as a region we have become garbage for snow. The fact that there is anyone anywhere who has envy for snow in the Willamette valley shows how truly pathetic our winter climate has become. It seems to take so much to even produce a widespread inch of snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I want to see a miracle for the weekend.    

As long as we have the cold north of the border anything can happen, I know you already know this but I can remember so many times over the years where the cold got drawn back down into the Puget sound area when it was not shown to do so even at 24hrs away from the event.

[BLI snowman]

It was a little colder going in, but there are other differences too. Mainly the fact the moisture appears to be primarily wrap around. The downslope will be a killer if anything makes it toward PDX.

Weren't the storms in February 2014 moving due west to east? Not taking an indecisive offshore trajectory like Wednesday's is. The tracks led to much better forcing and frontogenesis potential with that setup at northern latitudes.

[HighlandExperience]

[Kayla]

Modified arctic air is definitely making its way into the PDX area. 29.8 here, dp 20, mostly cloudy with east wind 25-35mph near west Gresham. I am really banking on the snow covered Gorge/Columbia Basin making things colder than modeled. I think it's likely.

 

26º dp 14º here after a high of 30º this morning.

 

Dry, cold air is definitely filtering down with 925mb temps approaching -6c now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I think as a region we have become garbage for snow. The fact that there is anyone anywhere who has envy for snow in the Willamette valley shows how truly pathetic our winter climate has become. It seems to take so much to even produce a widespread inch of snow.

Silverton has about 8" total so far this winter, not to bad. The Salem area did well in March 2012 too, not as great as Eugene but 4" with the big event and a couple other lesser events.

[TT-SEA]

That 3 inches fell on an area the size of Burien.

 

 

It was very localized up on the hill there.  

[TT-SEA]

Silverton has about 8" total so far this winter, not to bad. The Salem area did well in March 2012 too, not as great as Eugene but 4" with the big event and a couple other lesser events.

 

What are you up to on the year?   What is your annual average?

[Kayla]

Weren't the storms in February 2014 moving due west to east? Not taking an indecisive offshore trajectory like Wednesday's is. The tracks led to much better forcing and frontogenesis potential with that setup at northern latitudes.

 

Does anyone have a map from that event? I thought it also skirted the coast south to north.