January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

That's a little more like it...

 

Larch down to 23 with winds gusting to 48.

[Gradient Keeper]

That's a little more like it...

 

Larch down to 23 with winds gusting to 48.

Not even near the peak yet either. Fun stuff overnight

[Dave]

I was just looking at Snotels in Oregon. A lot of 2k' to 3k' ones have 8-15" of Snow water equivalent which is about 2x-10x normal and also enough to ski in spots with favorable vegetation & rock placement. Could be really fun to ski very unusual slopes atm.

I'm snowmobiling on Friday at a very low elevation snow park for Oregon standards.  It is only a bit above 2000 feet.  Pretty rare to have terrific snow conditions and plenty of snow there.  I know they have a couple of feet, so should be good times.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I almost never get offshore winds here. But the wind picked up about 6pm and is raging now. A mini blizzard of snow off the house and trees. Current temp is 21. Pulled off a 25/19 day today!

[Timmy Supercell]

I almost never get offshore winds here. But the wind picked up about 6pm and is raging now. A mini blizzard of snow off the house and trees. Current temp is 21. Pulled off a 25/19 day today!

 

23/15 here. 22 degrees during most of the duration of snowfall. Typically I get 30-32 degree snows so this was different here.

 

Regarding wind, I haven't had more than 5mph. No blizzard that you thought I would have!

 

I actually would have loved one. My last one was 01/07/2004 (I think the 7th?) in an area far less prone for snow. Go figure.

[Laura]

It is 26 and still falling in Oregon City.. can't wait to hear the wind tonight! 

[Dave]

I almost never get offshore winds here. But the wind picked up about 6pm and is raging now. A mini blizzard of snow off the house and trees. Current temp is 21. Pulled off a 25/19 day today!

That sounds like true modified arctic air!  Enjoy it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Weather Advisory for south valley, NWS basing this off the wishcast model?

[FroYoBro]

PDX should actually stay at or below freezing tomorrow. 

[North_County]

Just got back to the northwest after two weeks in Houston (80 degree Christmases just aren't right). Was greeted by a fresh layer of powder.

 

That's my son checking the mail, by the way, not some random winter shadow monster stalking the house.

 

Fraser Outflow wind is gusting pretty good north of Mt. Baker highway, and in particular from Nooksack north through Sumas.

[Dave]

I-5 south closed in the Siskiyous due to blizzard conditions.

[Dave]

Winter Weather Advisory for south valley, NWS basing this off the wishcast model?

You can't bust if you don't try.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That sounds like true modified arctic air!  Enjoy it.

what kind of snowmibile you ride?

[Deweydog]

PDX should actually stay at or below freezing tomorrow.

Tomorrow is definitely their shot, at least without a freezing rain saturated air mass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Winter Weather Advisory for south valley, NWS basing this off the wishcast model?

They are using the Rod hill model.

[Timmy Supercell]

Tomorrow is definitely their shot, at least without a freezing rain saturated air mass.

 

Warning shot.

[Perturbed Member]

They are using the Rod hill model.

Admiral NAVGEM!!

[HighlandExperience]

They are using the Rod hill model.

RHM model

[umadbro]

Accumulating snow as far North as Vancouver WA tomorrow.you heard it here first.

[FroYoBro]

Accumulating snow as far North as Vancouver WA tomorrow.you heard it here first.

 

This will also be the last time I hear this. 

[Kayla]

Accumulating snow as far North as Vancouver WA tomorrow.you heard it here first.

 

Bold... I like it!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Umadbro!!

[Goducks09]

Accumulating snow as far North as Vancouver WA tomorrow.you heard it here first.

 

Is that what the NAVGEM says?

[Dave]

what kind of snowmibile you ride?

A relatively shitty one that I try not to get stuck too often.  99 Polaris RMK 700.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, I see a possible trend emerging of stronger energy moving off Siberia/Asia pushing into the Aleutians and holding the block closer to 160 W. Maybe, maybe not, but I've noticed when we see stronger energy off Asia it almost always trends stronger/further east with time. It did all of December. Watch for this in future runs.

[dairyd]

Still gusty NE winds here in Bellingham. Took a drive around Lake Whatcom and headed east on Y road towards Mt Baker Highway. That place is a gold mine for snow/cold. Somehow I'd never made the drive out there during any snow event. Always wondered how they faired based on the proximity to the hills on both sides, being open to the North, but also partially sheltered...

 

It was 23*F on Northshore near lake level with a dusting of snow at best.  I got 1/2 mile east on Y road which also increases elevation about 100 feet and there was solid snow cover and temp had dropped to 21. Another half mile and it was 19*F with 2-3" and dead calm, trees flocked.  Halfway between Northshore and Mt Baker Highway there was a slight NE breeze and you could see the snow covered fields had been a little wind blown and hardly anything on the trees. Fascinating microclimate. The road itself goes from 315 feet and peaks at almost 700 feet, and back down to 450 feet at Mt Baker Highway. For anyone who knows much about Whatcom County, this might be the slightest bit interesting, especially in comparison to all this FLURRY TALK for tomorrow. 

 

I think I know where you were at.  We sometimes hay the fields just past the glenn-echo gardens.  It is quite high and steep terrain up there!  Probably good for a quad/snowmobile for times like these.  I doubt much NE wind makes it around the glen but maybe some up squalicum lake rd?

 

The wind is NOT winding down as forecast, it seems to be spooling up a bit this afternoon, particularly the gusts.  Already down to 23 tonight.  I see Abbotsford DP is 1*  No wonder all the snow sublimed!  I'm wondering if with the stalled front the high pressure movement is slower out than advertised as well.  Everything seems to be off on the models with this front.

[Deweydog]

Is that what the NAVGEM says?

Umadbra strikes me as a gut forecaster. A maverick. A cowboy, with a loaded six string at his side.

[TT-SEA]

They really do a good job on the roads up here.   They plowed a couple times during the snow and then one last time before the freeze up... with the sun and dry air the roads are perfectly bare and dry for this cold period.   

 

[BLI snowman]

Dry day Saturday?

[Deweydog]

They really do good jobs on the roads up here. They plowed a couple times during the snow and then one last time before the freeze up... with the sun and dry now air the roads are perfectly bare and dry for this cold period. There are some really steep parts of the road and its nice to not have to drive on ice and compact snow all week.

 

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deweydog]

Dry day Saturday?

Dry and CHILLY!

[TT-SEA]

Jim!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

He is not even paying attention and probably has me on ignore.  

[DareDuck]

I almost never get offshore winds here. But the wind picked up about 6pm and is raging now. A mini blizzard of snow off the house and trees. Current temp is 21. Pulled off a 25/19 day today!

14/9 in Bend today. Light blower snow all day, snow rate has picked up a bit the last hour or so.

[TT-SEA]

Dry day Saturday?

 

 

For most of the day... precip appears to start in the evening.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A relatively shitty one that I try not to get stuck too often.  99 Polaris RMK 700.

i had one. Good machine. 136 2 inch track. I have a 2009 cat m1000 turbocharged. 375 hp lol.

[Goducks09]

Hmmm, I see a possible trend emerging of stronger energy moving off Siberia/Asia pushing into the Aleutians and holding the block closer to 160 W. Maybe, maybe not, but I've noticed when we see stronger energy off Asia it almost always trends stronger/further east with time. It did all of December. Watch for this in future runs.

 

You do see it nudging east a bit over the last three runs...  Need it a few hundred more miles east though!

[DareDuck]

They really do a good job on the roads up here. They plowed a couple times during the snow and then one last time before the freeze up... with the sun and dry air the roads are perfectly bare and dry for this cold period.

 

Wow that's remarkable. Looks like you have a little less snow than Bend, but that road is in great shape. Wish our city crews could do that.

[Dave]

14/9 in Bend today. Light blower snow all day, snow rate has picked up a bit the last hour or so.

What's your snow depth at approximately?  Seems like you'll probably have snowcover until March.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS - I see more east wind(becoming strong to very strong Saturday morning) on this run ahead of the moisture Saturday. Gives more time to pull in colder air and possibly thicken the cold layer over PDX. Snow/Ice storm likely. Moisture arrives just after dark. Nice timing.

[TT-SEA]

Wow that's remarkable. Looks like you have a little less snow than Bend, but that road is in great shape. Wish our city crews could do that.

 

 

Way less.

 

Only about 6 inches on the ground here.