January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

WHERE THE FRIG IS ALL THE EXCITEMENT OVER THIS!?!?!?!?! EVEN THE SWAMP GETS IN ON IT!!!!

It is an eternity away... *Yawn* Not buying this BS... in three to four days this will moderate or be completely gone. Period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Weird setup. Arctic outbreak for the coastal waters!

can't remember the year, 95 i think. Anyways similar pattern and there was about 3 days of very cold onshore flow from a low spinning of Vancouver island pumping arctic air out into the ocean.

[Deweydog]

It is an eternity away... *Yawn* Not buying this BS

You're shitting your pants.

[Phil]

FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies are adamant that we flip into a +PNA regime for February. Whether or not that actually occurs, the block will get undercut and replaced with a +EPO for at least a few weeks before the next round of anticyclonic breaking.

[Kayla]

Wow, GEM says "what warm up?!"

 

Some snow, 30 hours of ZR followed by more snow. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

You're shitting your pants.

 

 

shhhh.. don't tell anyone   

[liquidsnow]

It is an eternity away... *Yawn* Not buying this BS

 

BS? You bet that's BS. This will be dubbed "bullish snowstorm" because the models have picked up on this today and it will darn well verify. You sir...will need a freaking snowblower. We can bet on this if you want....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It is an eternity away... *Yawn* Not buying this BS... in three to four days this will moderate or be completely gone. Period.

Oh nancy..

[pscz1140]

So the GFS now shows snow off and on in the Seattle area from Tuesday morning until Friday afternoon.

 

I'd be willing to sacrifice an assortment of chickens, sticks of gum, and Hadley cells to see that verify.

[Phil]

After this week, South Carolina will have seen more snowfall than Portland and Seattle combined.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Oh nancy..

My name is Shirley Silly... Geesh.... 

[Jesse]

After this week, South Carolina will have seen more snowfall than Portland and Seattle combined.

 

:lol:

[FroYoBro]

After this week, South Carolina will have seen more snowfall than Portland and Seattle combined.

 

PDX is getting 3 inches more on Saturday. Then 4 next week. 

[Perturbed Member]

Wow...00z GEM keeps PDX frozen precip all the way through 10 AM  Monday. Almost entirely ZR.

 

GEM really overdoes ZR in my experience with it, but this would be a disaster. 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017010500/120/zr_acc.us_nw.png

[MossMan]

Best Block Ever!

[Kayla]

In case anyone was wondering...

 

[GHweatherChris]

After this week, South Carolina will have seen more snowfall than Portland and Seattle combined.

Noone cares about South Carolina.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow, GEM says "what warm up?!"

 

Some snow, 30 hours of ZR followed by more snow. 

Very messy. Also possible snow Tuesday and more ZR/Snow NEXT Thursday morning

[Perturbed Member]

It is an eternity away... *Yawn* Not buying this BS... in three to four days this will moderate or be completely gone. Period.

 

Have to agree with this. Models have hardly been reliable in the short term, no point in masturbating to that long range nonsense. The big blizzard is always 7-10 days out. Not saying  we shouldn't look at long range stuff on the models, but getting excited about any winter weather in the PNW lowlands that far out is pretty risky for your emotional well being.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In case anyone was wondering...

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washington_41.png

 

These models keep wanting to bury me...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowgasmic!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Winter is like, "Sup? Yeah.... I'm not going anywhere, well rather I don't want to leave so soon. Get used to it, Bu'holes."

 

Kind of a rude disposition, but if it means we get Cold/SNOW I'll deal with your shitty attitude, Winter.

[HighlandExperience]

In case anyone was wondering...

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washington_41.png

Swamp gets buried

[Goducks09]

Wow, GEM says "what warm up?!"

 

Some snow, 30 hours of ZR followed by more snow. 

 

30 hours of ZR?!  Lol, wtf.  NO THANK YOU.

[van city]

After this week, South Carolina will have seen more snowfall than Portland and Seattle combined.

This is from today. We have more than a foot of snow here for a month now and more to come this weekend.

[Deweydog]

Funny. Wind has gone calm in Troutdale but we can't shake this 10-15 mph breeze.

 

mother******!!!

[Kayla]

Have to agree with this. Models have hardly been reliable in the short term, no point in masturbating to that long range nonsense. The big blizzard is always 7-10 days out. Not saying  we shouldn't look at long range stuff on the models, but getting excited about any winter weather in the PNW lowlands that far out is pretty risky for your emotional well being.  

 

Until the euro jumps on board...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very messy. Also possible snow Tuesday and more ZR/Snow NEXT Thursday morning

 

I'm gonna have to copy a line from you DJ...This low level cold may be hard to scour out this weekend...

[Perturbed Member]

Until the euro jumps on board...

 

Generally I'd agree, but recently I've been pretty disappointed at how wildly the models and their ensembles have all been flip flopping even when there seemed to be some consistency and agreement. Nature still seems to have a few tricks up its sleeve.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

is about to get real next week for Western wa next week.

[BLI snowman]

Meh.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's interesting is that what the GFS is showing in the mid range is what it was showing in uber clown range about a week ago. Certainly possible, and if this run verifies Medford is going to challenge their snow record for January....

[MossMan]

s**t is about to get real next week for Western wa next week.

Yep!! Hopefully Jim comes back!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meh.

 

Kind of the same...Poor mans 92-93 continues...

[Kayla]

Generally I'd agree, but recently I've been pretty disappointed at how wildly the models and their ensembles have all been flip flopping even when there seemed to be some consistency and agreement. Nature still seems to have a few tricks up its sleeve.  

 

Well if it helps, I'm moving late next week so I'll be reverse wishcasting the heck out of it.

[Timmy Supercell]

These models keep wanting to bury me...

 

Do they show tons of snow for Klamath County still? 

[Gradient Keeper]

30 hours of ZR?!  Lol, wtf.  NO THANK YOU.

At this rate we better hope for some unforeseen changes with the cold air being thicker. That's the only way we're going to escape a significant to severe ice storm.

 

Funny. Wind has gone calm in Troutdale but we can't shake this 10-15 mph breeze.

 

mother******!!!

OTH-GEG back up over -11mb. Models trying to ease up on the east winds too soon, or too much again. I'm sure the widespread snow cover Gorge/east is playing a hand in things. I sure like seeing pressure rising sharply over the Columbia Basin/eastern Washington up 1031mb near Spokane. The winds Friday night/Saturday may be stronger than what we just had, more gap probably then though.

[Deweydog]

The models are clearly underentrenching the cold.

[Timmy Supercell]

What's interesting is that what the GFS is showing in the mid range is what it was showing in uber clown range about a week ago. Certainly possible, and if this run verifies Medford is going to challenge their snow record for January....

 

I may have a shot at record January snow even if the rest of the month continues at normal pace. 19.15" already and not even 5 days into the month.

[liquidsnow]

Until the euro jumps on board...

Then the GFS jumps off this weekend and flips to 50 degree rain. Other models painfully follow this trend...then the post mortum begins. Some here begin ranting about how much they hate it here while others post GIFS of angry outbursts. Phil then rears his head and posts something about the PV being in a coma.

 

Rinse & repeat.