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January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Goducks09

By Goducks09
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The state of the snow now 4 days after it fell.    I've never seen such staying power in our snow with sunny days as well!  2008 it stuck around a long time but it was pretty much socked in the entire

Jesse
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Some pictures from the Fort Vancouver Historic Site today.  

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Bryant

Went ice skating on Cain Lake and Lake Whatcom today with Brennan and Mattias (Bainbridgekid). Cain lake was a good 5-6" thick and we skated from one end to the other with no worries. The lake is a re

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

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Mark has a new post:

 

He isn't terribly worried about getting cold enough:

 

"One of my thoughts this morning has been “where is all the cold air going to come from to freeze us up tonight?”  Then I checked the WRF-GFS temp maps for 2,000′ and 3,000′ elevations.  The storm moving by to the south and low pressure to the southwest DO pull cold air right into the east end of the Gorge.  27 degrees at 3,000′ over Hood River/The Dalles right now drops to 12-14 degrees at that elevation by 4am!  Then that air is sucked through the Gorge, so I’m pretty confident the entire metro area will be 32 degrees or lower by sunrise Wednesday. But no, not a hard freeze tonight.

"
 
He is sticking to his 1-4 inches, seems largely because of how dry the WRF looks. WRF gives 1 inch to the western metro and pretty much nothing to the rest. He does acknowledge it is possible to score a real widespread 2-5 inch snowstorm as well.
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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

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Mark has a new post:

 

He isn't terribly worried about getting cold enough:

 

"One of my thoughts this morning has been “where is all the cold air going to come from to freeze us up tonight?”  Then I checked the WRF-GFS temp maps for 2,000′ and 3,000′ elevations.  The storm moving by to the south and low pressure to the southwest DO pull cold air right into the east end of the Gorge.  27 degrees at 3,000′ over Hood River/The Dalles right now drops to 12-14 degrees at that elevation by 4am!  Then that air is sucked through the Gorge, so I’m pretty confident the entire metro area will be 32 degrees or lower by sunrise Wednesday. But no, not a hard freeze tonight.

"
 
He is sticking to his 1-4 inches, seems largely because of how dry the WRF looks. WRF gives 1 inch to the western metro and pretty much nothing to the rest. He does acknowledge it is possible to score a real widespread 2-5 inch snowstorm as well. 

And that is if the low tracks right.  Still some if's but it appears most models are coming together.  Nothing more fun than watching rain turn to snow and knowing cold air is coming in with the precip and then turning off cold enough to not change back to rain.  It to me is the best possible scenario for me, the most fun to watch. 

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Prairiedog Community Regular

Prairiedog

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Here is Steve Pierce's analysis for tonight and tomorrow (Koin 6).  He posted this on FB on Portland Weather Uncensored.  Will be interesting to compare with Marks.  Not too much different. 

** SNOW TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY **

Updated: 12:00PM Tuesday

The latest models are all in. The coffee has been consumed. My eyes are swimming from all the new information. So, here we go...

WHAT IS CLEAR?

Models are now in agreement that rain should change over to snow between 8-11pm tonight in the metro area. The east wind will also increase just after sunset. Models show temperatures will quickly fall through the evening and be at or below 32 across the metro area by 8-11pm.

WHAT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR?

Models now agree that total precipitation amounts will likely end up between 0.30" to 0.60" depending on what model you look at. The Euro is the wettest with 0.60" and GFS is the driest with 0.30". The NAM along with the NCEP HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) and Canadian (GEM) are also on board with the same general totals. Using a 10:1 ratio (generic snow ratio) that is good for 3-6" of total snow across the Portland metro area beginning tonight about 10pm. Models are also in agreement in more enhancement of the precipitation between 4am and 10am tomorrow morning. This may also be the time of heaviest precip across the metro area. The Wednesday morning commute could be a real mess so be prepared! Get up early tomorrow to check on road conditions. Models are also wanting to keep the snow falling for an impressive 12 hours or perhaps even a little longer, albeit mostly light.

Models are now lifting the precipitation well into SW Washington, at least through Longview, possibly farther north. Model trends are clearly wetter and with more snow accumulation in the metro area. What is also becoming more clear is the area from Salem to Eugene may take a while longer to cool tonight vs. that of the immediate Portland area.

Models are clear that temperatures WILL NOT moderate much tomorrow. Any snow that falls will remain in place for the next few days as more modified arctic air will follow the snow. Expect a high of about 32 in Portland tomorrow after a low of about 28-30 tonight. Overnight lows will likely fall into the teens tomorrow night and again Thursday night in from Longview to Eugene under clearing skies, provided there is snow cover.

WHAT IS STILL UP-IN-THE-AIR? (No pun intended)

Models are having a hard time with who sees the most snow over the metro area. The GFS and Euro want to put the most snow on the west side of the metro area, while the NAM and Canadian insist on more ubiquitous snow across the metro area. Euro and NAM showing 5-6" at PDX while the GFS is trending towards 1-3" at PDX. Pick your model. Given the overall pattern and past storms of similar nature I would bet the west side sees the greatest snow totals given the cold air damming against the coast range as the east winds pick up. They will also likely be the first areas in the metro to see snow this evening.

WHAT IS THE WILD CARD?

I am watching an area of enhancement associated with a mesoscale low that is forecast to be just off the coast (near Newport) or even over the valley near Salem late tonight that could increase the snow rates higher than presently modeled. This is the wild card. If this does come to fruition, there is plenty of cold air available and substantial lift in the atmosphere after 2-3am tonight to increase sow totals to the higher end of the current 1-6" model spread.

MY BOTTOM LINE FORECAST ---

* Temps fall quickly this evening.
* Rain changes to snow in Portland metro area sometime between 8-11pm.
* Snowfall rates increase slowly overnight.
* Snow continues through the morning Wednesday across the metro area.
* Temperatures stay below freezing through the night tonight and most if not all of the day tomorrow for Portland metro.
* General accumulations of 2-3" across the entire metro (on the valley floor) are are looking more likely.
* Areas of 3-5" are possible on the west side of the metro area and near the base of the coast range in Washington County.
* Heaviest snowfall likely between 4AM and 10AM tomorrow morning.
* Snow should taper off Wednesday afternoon.
* School delays and closures are likely across the metro area Wednesday.
* Wednesday morning commute likely to be very messy. Plan ahead.

Enjoy all the maps!

The KOIN 6 weather team is tracking the storm and will have the latest updates on air and online 24/7.

Steve Pierce
KOIN 6 Meteorologist

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

 

Here is Steve Pierce's analysis for tonight and tomorrow (Koin 6). He posted this on FB on Portland Weather Uncensored. Will be interesting to compare with Marks. Not too much different.

** SNOW TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY **

Updated: 12:00PM Tuesday

The latest models are all in. The coffee has been consumed. My eyes are swimming from all the new information. So, here we go...

WHAT IS CLEAR?

Models are now in agreement that rain should change over to snow between 8-11pm tonight in the metro area. The east wind will also increase just after sunset. Models show temperatures will quickly fall through the evening and be at or below 32 across the metro area by 8-11pm.

WHAT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR?

Models now agree that total precipitation amounts will likely end up between 0.30" to 0.60" depending on what model you look at. The Euro is the wettest with 0.60" and GFS is the driest with 0.30". The NAM along with the NCEP HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) and Canadian (GEM) are also on board with the same general totals. Using a 10:1 ratio (generic snow ratio) that is good for 3-6" of total snow across the Portland metro area beginning tonight about 10pm. Models are also in agreement in more enhancement of the precipitation between 4am and 10am tomorrow morning. This may also be the time of heaviest precip across the metro area. The Wednesday morning commute could be a real mess so be prepared! Get up early tomorrow to check on road conditions. Models are also wanting to keep the snow falling for an impressive 12 hours or perhaps even a little longer, albeit mostly light.

Models are now lifting the precipitation well into SW Washington, at least through Longview, possibly farther north. Model trends are clearly wetter and with more snow accumulation in the metro area. What is also becoming more clear is the area from Salem to Eugene may take a while longer to cool tonight vs. that of the immediate Portland area.

Models are clear that temperatures WILL NOT moderate much tomorrow. Any snow that falls will remain in place for the next few days as more modified arctic air will follow the snow. Expect a high of about 32 in Portland tomorrow after a low of about 28-30 tonight. Overnight lows will likely fall into the teens tomorrow night and again Thursday night in from Longview to Eugene under clearing skies, provided there is snow cover.

WHAT IS STILL UP-IN-THE-AIR? (No pun intended)

Models are having a hard time with who sees the most snow over the metro area. The GFS and Euro want to put the most snow on the west side of the metro area, while the NAM and Canadian insist on more ubiquitous snow across the metro area. Euro and NAM showing 5-6" at PDX while the GFS is trending towards 1-3" at PDX. Pick your model. Given the overall pattern and past storms of similar nature I would bet the west side sees the greatest snow totals given the cold air damming against the coast range as the east winds pick up. They will also likely be the first areas in the metro to see snow this evening.

WHAT IS THE WILD CARD?

I am watching an area of enhancement associated with a mesoscale low that is forecast to be just off the coast (near Newport) or even over the valley near Salem late tonight that could increase the snow rates higher than presently modeled. This is the wild card. If this does come to fruition, there is plenty of cold air available and substantial lift in the atmosphere after 2-3am tonight to increase sow totals to the higher end of the current 1-6" model spread.

MY BOTTOM LINE FORECAST ---

* Temps fall quickly this evening.

* Rain changes to snow in Portland metro area sometime between 8-11pm.

* Snowfall rates increase slowly overnight.

* Snow continues through the morning Wednesday across the metro area.

* Temperatures stay below freezing through the night tonight and most if not all of the day tomorrow for Portland metro.

* General accumulations of 2-3" across the entire metro (on the valley floor) are are looking more likely.

* Areas of 3-5" are possible on the west side of the metro area and near the base of the coast range in Washington County.

* Heaviest snowfall likely between 4AM and 10AM tomorrow morning.

* Snow should taper off Wednesday afternoon.

* School delays and closures are likely across the metro area Wednesday.

* Wednesday morning commute likely to be very messy. Plan ahead.

Enjoy all the maps!

The KOIN 6 weather team is tracking the storm and will have the latest updates on air and online 24/7.

Steve Pierce

KOIN 6 Meteorologist

Thanks for sharing, very detailed. Hoping his "wild card" becomes reality.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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Looking like south puget sound may get nin on action. This one looks like the famous spread the moisture further north.

 

Looking at the models and other tools I am not seeing it. If we see any action I doubt it will be much if any this will mainly stay south of the area. Thats okay we will get our turn at some point. If not this year in future years. It is just a matter of time.  

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Precip is now knocking on the door, will be interesting to see how long it takes Troutdale to switch over with temps hovering around 35 and dewpoints below freezing.

Looks like most of if not all the column up to 925mb or so is still above freezing. Wet bulb should start to become a factor pretty soon though as offshore deepens.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

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Looking at the models and other tools I am not seeing it. If we see any action I doubt it will be much if any this will mainly stay south of the area. Thats okay we will get our turn at some point. If not this year in future years. It is just a matter of time.  

The precip shield is already moving north and when the low gets closer it will move even further north. It will be close and these in the past can have a trick or 2.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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The precip shield is already moving north and when the low gets closer it will move even further north. It will be close and these in the past can have a trick or 2.

I do not see it holding together... Plus it is so warm today it does not mean much. It would have to be pretty intense. At this point I think you are reaching a little. Models had it coming up this way but would never make it, I think that will still hold true.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

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how much snow does it take to rid your avatar?

 

More than we can conceive. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

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Precip is now knocking on the door, will be interesting to see how long it takes Troutdale to switch over with temps hovering around 35 and dewpoints below freezing.

 

HRRR seems to indicate that we're gonna get rain until 6-8PM when the metro gradually changes over to snow. The east winds only just started at HIO and the temp is far from cold enough (40/37). PDX looks promising though at 37/32. Sucks that some of this early precip has to go to waste.

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FroYoBro Grand Master

FroYoBro

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And that is if the low tracks right.  Still some if's but it appears most models are coming together.  Nothing more fun than watching rain turn to snow and knowing cold air is coming in with the precip and then turning off cold enough to not change back to rain.  It to me is the best possible scenario for me, the most fun to watch. 

 

I agree. Watching the progress of more and more flakes mixing in is really entertaining.  This evening is going to be fun. 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

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HRRR seems to indicate that we're gonna get rain until 6-8PM when the metro gradually changes over to snow. The east winds only just started at HIO and the temp is far from cold enough (40/37). PDX looks promising though at 37/32. Sucks that some of this early precip has to go to waste.

Unless PuyallupJohn has put his swamp curse on you then it stays 33/34 degree rain the entire time ;)  I heard it is spreading south... 

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My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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HRRR seems to indicate that we're gonna get rain until 6-8PM when the metro gradually changes over to snow. The east winds only just started at HIO and the temp is far from cold enough (40/37). PDX looks promising though at 37/32. Sucks that some of this early precip has to go to waste.

That's a big factor in this. Timing of the changeover and the precip itself will have a pretty big impact on accumulations.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

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HRRR seems to indicate that we're gonna get rain until 6-8PM when the metro gradually changes over to snow. The east winds only just started at HIO and the temp is far from cold enough (40/37). PDX looks promising though at 37/32. Sucks that some of this early precip has to go to waste.

 

I actually enjoy rain to snow events a lot more in some ways. Fun and rewarding to track and better than having to track fizzled rounds of virga. We haven't had a setup like this in awhile. 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Offshore flow is definitely starting to brim, my temp and dewpoint have gone down 1-2F in the last hour. Temp peaked here at 39.

Should be a fairly incremental process starting after 5pm or so. Just a matter of it actually happening.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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