January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

What is a WHEM wavetrain? I Googled "WHEM wavetrain" and the only result was one post you made on this forum.

WHEM = Western Hemisphere. In reference to the wave train across the WHEM subtropical domain.

[Tenochtitlan]

WHEM = Western Hemisphere. In reference to the wave train across the WHEM subtropical domain.

Does it have to do Rossby waves? (I'm new to all this stuff)

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF is looking very good out to hour 96.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Overall it's shaping up similar to the 0z GFS but quite a bit colder over the first 120 hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017013100/gfs_T850_nwus_21.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017013100/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

[Phil]

Does it have to do Rossby waves? (I'm new to all this stuff)

Yes, both the rossby and gravity wave components make up the progression of the wave train.

[TT-SEA]

The 0z ECMWF is looking very good out to hour 96.

 

 

Wow... this is really coming together.    00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow... this is really coming together.    00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

Yeah looks AWESOME!!!!!! FUKEN AMAZING trace to an inch in the SWAMP>..... I can hardly wait for the same this has turned into all winter. A pure epic winter ***

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow... this is really coming together.    00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

 

Must be some cold onshore flow because that is a lot of snow at "my location."

[luvssnow_spokane]

Must be some cold onshore flow because that is a lot of snow at "my location."

I find that very odd you would even get snow, specially considering how hard it is for you to get snow there. Must be a miracle!

[Brennan]

Lower BC the winners on the 0z euro. It all comes down to low placement with that setup. Still surprised there isn't more traffic on here from North Sounders.

[bainbridgekid]

Vancouver would be absolutely buried in either the GEM or EURO scenarios.

[Heavy Snow]

The 00z EURO is showing a monster snowstorm for Eugene next Monday. Around 4 inches for PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

Wow... this is really coming together.    00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

 

 

When does most of this fall?

[Brennan]

Vancouver would be absolutely buried in either the GEM or EURO scenarios.

Whoever stays just on the north side of that low is going to get it good... i hope it presses on south a bit for the sake of everyone.

[HighlandExperience]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z EURO is showing a monster snowstorm for Eugene next Monday. Around 4 inches for PDX.

 

Maps?

[TT-SEA]

When does most of this fall?

 

Really spread out from Friday through Sunday... and then a big snow event for Portland next week.

 

This the next 72 hours after the map above.   No double counting.    Monday - Thursday of next week.

 

[Jesse]

Starting to look like the first 1/3 of February could end up solidly cold, if model trends are to be believed. That escalated quickly.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow... this is really coming together. 00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

That should be a solid 2-3 inches for east king county. Even Covington where snowwizard resides.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Good lord...

[Perturbed Member]

Really spread out from Friday through Sunday... and then a big snow event for Portland next week.

 

This the next 72 hours after the map above.   No double counting.    Monday - Thursday of next week.

 

 

Wow. Things sure did change fast on all the models. 

[snow_wizard]

Totally insane to see all three models change so dramatically on just one run.  You can easily the detail that makes the progression so much better also.  MJO may save our butts!

[HighlandExperience]

Totally insane to see all three models change so dramatically on just one run. You can easily the detail that makes the progression so much better also. MJO may save our butts!

Winter hasn't given up on us yet. Let's hope

[stuffradio]

Starting to look like the first 1/3 of February could end up solidly cold, if model trends are to be believed. That escalated quickly.

I think you mean, that collapsed quickly.

[Perturbed Member]

The euro means business. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017013100/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

The GFS  and GEM for comparison

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017013100/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017013100/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

The GEM is a bit slower with the cold air, but all the major models show a pretty attractive 500mb pattern. 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow... this is really coming together.    00Z ECMWF through Monday morning.

 

 

Amazing, that's just the overrun, doesn't even include the cold low the ECMWF has slipping down from the north on Sunday.

 

​​Nevermind, didn't notice that's not up to hour 120, it's the past 120 hours. Still a very impressive turn around.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah looks AWESOME!!!!!! FUKEN AMAZING trace to an inch in the SWAMP>..... I can hardly wait for the same s**t this has turned into all winter. A pure epic winter ***

 

In all seriousness if this verifies it looks to be a much better scenario for us to get snow.  The ECMWF in particular looks good.  Another thing to keep in mind is the change is so dramatic in such a short time further improvements are highly possible.

[HighlandExperience]

In all seriousness if this verifies it looks to be a much better scenario for us to get snow. The ECMWF in particular looks good. Another thing to keep in mind is the change is so dramatic in such a short time further improvements are highly possible.

We better not get screwed again.

[snow_wizard]

GFS ensembles much improved also.  Amazing we could easily have yet another significant cold snap this winter.

[snow_wizard]

We better not get screwed again.

 

The progression being shown is much more favorable.  Let's hope it works out.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah looks AWESOME!!!!!! FUKEN AMAZING trace to an inch in the SWAMP>..... I can hardly wait for the same s**t this has turned into all winter. A pure epic winter ***

 

Take a break.

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. That was a good evening.  I need a cigarette and a nap.   

[BLI snowman]

Cold winter!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The progression being shown is much more favorable.  Let's hope it works out.

 

It's nice to see the improvement within 96 hours in all models. That is about the timeframe where our last few busts really started to become clear.

[umadbro]

Wow. That was a good evening. I need a cigarette and a nap.

Don't forget the 3 fingers of scotch!

[ShawniganLake]

Don't forget the 3 fingers of scotch!

**** it. I'm goin for 4.

[Jesse]

Cold winter!

Dec-Feb average could be looking pretty impressive when it's all said and done. Would really only take a moderately cold February for that at this point.

[BLI snowman]

Dec-Feb average could be looking pretty impressive when it's all said and done. Would really only take a moderately cold February for that at this point.

 

I'm sure it will be. For our area, coldest DJF since 1992-93 is probably a lock. Coldest since 1978-79 is going to be quite doable. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah looks AWESOME!!!!!! FUKEN AMAZING trace to an inch in the SWAMP>..... I can hardly wait for the same s**t this has turned into all winter. A pure epic winter ***

Dude you need help. Ever one of your posts are negative bullshit. You dont contribute anything to the forum other then crybaby garbage.

[umadbro]

Dude you need help. Ever one of your posts are negative bullshit. You dont contribute anything to the forum other then crybaby garbage.

Umadbro?