February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

So what he meant to say was: "He's a really nice tool with a necktie."

 

Regardless, only Jesse compared him LOOSELY to a psychopath.

Nice guys can be tools. He's just come off in the past as someone who has a little bit of a coattail fetish.

[Perturbed Member]

12z NAVGEM looking pretty much the same as 06z. Pretty good agreement for now on this track across quite a few models except the GFS. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020312/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_11.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017020312/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_12.png

[Timmy Supercell]

43 degrees now in Klamath Falls. Occasional showers. Spring is here early.

 

(momentarily...)

[Jesse]

So what he meant to say was: "He's a really nice tool with a necktie."

 

Regardless, only Jesse compared him LOOSELY to a psychopath.

What is your aim here exactly?

 

The comparison was mostly based on the fact that he is a local weenie who releases his own public forecasts. This was true even before he worked for KOIN. You are kind of making something out of nothing.

[Jesse]

Nice guys can be tools. He's just come off in the past as someone who has a little bit of a coattail fetish.

Well put. I never meant anything more dastardly than this about him.

[bainbridgekid]

What is your aim here exactly?

 

The comparison was mostly based on the fact that he is a local weenie who releases his own public forecasts. This was true even before he worked for KOIN. You are kind of making something out of nothing.

Even then, he was the president of the Oregon chapter of the American Meteoroglogical Society.

 

I'm with Jared on this one. Comparing him to Kevin Martin really doesn't seem fair.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I give Steve P a lot of credit he is a weenie like us who parlayed his enthusiasm and journalism degree into a dream job, let's not be jealous.

[Jesse]

Even then, he was the president of the Oregon chapter of the American Meteoroglogical Society.

 

I'm with Jared on this one. Comparing him to Kevin Martin really doesn't seem fair.

It was only really based on the releasing public forecasts aspect. I can't really think of anyone else up here who does that, something Martin is famous for.

 

Y'all are reading too much in to everything else.

[Brennan]

Heavier precip almost to Whatcom County. No idea what precip type will be. If it's snow it will dump.

[Front Ranger]

What is your aim here exactly?

 

The comparison was mostly based on the fact that he is a local weenie who releases his own public forecasts. This was true even before he worked for KOIN. You are kind of making something out of nothing.

 

Like you said, Kevin Martin is in a league of his own. Wasn't trying to make a big deal of anything, but felt that was worth pointing out for anyone who had no idea who Steve Pierce was.

[Perturbed Member]

FYI 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is about 5-7 inches for both PDX and SEA metros. 

[Prairiedog]

I've been around Steve a number of times.  He MC's the OMSI meteorological society fall meetings and does a great job.  I've been up at Crown Point for the obscene wind events up there when he and many of us other weather junkies hang out and is very gregarious and respectful to all.  Whether he is a formally trained met or not, he's pretty thorough and comprehensive in his analysis and is pretty good (meaning accurate) as accurate as anyone else.  He certainly has done as well as most of the local mets.  To even put him in the same sentence as Martin is pretty insulting.  If you want to take aim at him, maybe the respectuful thing to do is message him on his FB page and get the facts before you put a target on his back. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been around Steve a number of times. He MC's the OMSI meteorological society fall meetings and does a great job. I've been up at Crown Point for the obscene wind events up there when he and many of us other weather junkies hang out and is very gregarious and respectful to all. Whether he is a formally trained met or not, he's pretty thorough and comprehensive in his analysis and is pretty good (meaning accurate) as accurate as anyone else. He certainly has done as well as most of the local mets. To even put him in the same sentence as Martin is pretty insulting. If you want to take aim at him, maybe the respectuful thing to do is message him on his FB page and get the facts before you put a target on his back.

Good post, he also has a good sense of humor. They tease him pretty hard on some of the Facebook groups and he puts up with it like a grown up.

[Prairiedog]

He's very good natured. Good friends with Mark Nelsen.  They banter about their forecasts which is great as they don't take it as a life and death thing.  Mark obviously is in a league of his own.  Steve holds his own in his forecasts whether he has a degree in atmospheric science or not. 

[Timmy]

FYI 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is about 5-7 inches for both PDX and SEA metros.

Any for SLE?

[BLI snowman]

I've been around Steve a number of times.  He MC's the OMSI meteorological society fall meetings and does a great job.  I've been up at Crown Point for the obscene wind events up there when he and many of us other weather junkies hang out and is very gregarious and respectful to all.  Whether he is a formally trained met or not, he's pretty thorough and comprehensive in his analysis and is pretty good (meaning accurate) as accurate as anyone else.  He certainly has done as well as most of the local mets.  To even put him in the same sentence as Martin is pretty insulting.  If you want to take aim at him, maybe the respectuful thing to do is message him on his FB page and get the facts before you put a target on his back. 

 

Yeah, not really appropriate to be trashing the guy on here when he's not here to defend himself and seems like a nice fellow. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z NAM shows a possible deformation zone miracle for PDX on Sunday evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020318/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

[Timmy]

Snow mixing in under a heavy shower in scappoose

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any for SLE?

4"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM buries the central and south valley with 1-2 feet of snow. 9" at PDX

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah the NAM is even further south with the precip, drier north when compared to 12z. Worrisome. Hopefully the 18z GFS snaps back to the Euro solution.

Doubtful...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would be a perfect time for the old axe-to-the-head emoji.

16.2" of snow at SLE through hour 72

[BLI snowman]

Seattle people should do fine regardless of where the main action ends up with the Sunday storm.

 

As I pointed out yesterday, all models have been showing plenty of precip opportunities for Monday/Tuesday even well to the north of the storm. This isn't going to be like the 12/14 or 1/10 systems that had sharp northern cutoffs.

[Jesse]

Still some light ZR on the trees here.

 

Timmy, there is snow mixing down near Scappoose? Upper levels don't seem cold enough yet.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle people should do fine regardless of where the main action ends up with the Sunday storm.

 

As I pointed out yesterday, all models have been showing plenty of precip opportunities for Monday/Tuesday even well to the north of the storm. This isn't going to be like the 12/14 or 1/10 systems that had sharp northern cutoffs.

 

Might need strong precip rates to make a difference for the lowlands though.

[Heavy Snow]

18Z NAM shows a possible deformation zone miracle for PDX on Sunday evening...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2017020318/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

I'm speechless right now.

[Jesse]

I will never talk about my opinion of Steve Pierce here again, for the record. That got ridiculously blown out of proportion.

 

It's funny that we can directly accuse pro mets of being alcoholics and such here, but then I point out a few accurate criticisms of Steve Pierce and it becomes the crime of the century.

[ryanc]

10PM Friday-10PM Monday. Don't be too nervous - the Euro is a good model to have in the northern(ish) camp. Like others have said, a common theme this season is to trend south 2-3 days out and then have a quick jog north at the last minute.

Can you post this map for the entire state of WA?

[BLI snowman]

Might need strong precip rates to make a difference for the lowlands though.

 

You guys could get some decent low level Fraser outflow though, at least by Monday evening. Precip type shouldn't be a big issue for you at that point.

[Perturbed Member]

D**n you NAM! Move that precip further north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM give PDX 10" SLE 18" EUG 6"

[MossMan]

Wow the forum is a special kind of something today...who can be the most negative...hurry and go!!

[Timmy]

Still some light ZR on the trees here.

 

Timmy, there is snow mixing down near Scappoose? Upper levels don't seem cold enough yet.

Pretty heavy precip, could have been sleet maybe? Very wet whatever it is.

[Deweydog]

Steve Pierce's tears cure cancer, so there IS that...

 

Too bad he never cries.

[Brennan]

Just a tad too warm once again. North county getting slammed.

[MossMan]

12z EPS for Seattle metro. At some point Sunday-Tuesday, 46/51 (90%) show 2+ inches. 20 of those 46 (43%) show 6+ inches. Not too shabby.

Nice! Looking forward to a snowy couple of days!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wow the forum is a special kind of something today...who can be the most negative...hurry and go!!

Screw you!!!!! I hate people, I hate snow and everyone here is a pedophile, except snowwiz

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_18z.jpg

[seattleweatherguy]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_18z.jpg

Excellent for you guys, us not so much

[MossMan]

Excellent for you guys, us not so much

I don't think that cheesy model or whatever it is has ever been even close to accurate.