December 2022 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

We did it, a white Christmas here in KC. (Had around 2 inches of snow from last week's system) Bottomed out at -10 last Thursday. Was hoping for a band of snow last night, but, it was weak and mostly sleet and a bit of freezing rain. Had a nice snow band come through this morning, had a little dusting.

 

Looks like more storms are possible as we head towards the NEW YEAR and into the first 10 days of Jan., however, looks like rain here in KC as we are going to lose the cold. Might have a shot at that system around Jan. 2-4th, we'll see where that one tracks.

[Andie]

25* on the Red River near I 35.  
Wind at 9NNW.  
Feels a lot colder

Temps will warm up tomorrow through the week reaching 70 by Thurs/Fri.  
 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 23/16 there was a reported 0.3” of snow fall that bring the seasonal total so far at Grand Rapids at 67.6” There was 13% of possible sunshine and there was 15” of snow on the ground as there has been some melting from the ground up as the ground is not frozen here. The overnight low for today so far has been 17 and at the current time there is light snow falling and 21. For today the average H/L is 33/22 the record high of 60 was in 2008 and the record low of -12 was in 2017. The record snow fall of 9.6” was in 2001.

After today we enter a extended period of mild and wet almost March like weather with highs and lows mostly above 32. The snow pack will be going down a lot over the next several days to say the least.  That brings me to 2008 the year with todays record high of 60 that year Grand Rapids had 17” of snow on the ground on December 24^th but by the 28^th it was all gone.

 

[Tom]

Nice storm continues to show up for @CentralNebWeather @gabel23and MSP up into Northwoods of Wisco/U.P. as we open 2023...Is a change brewing for our friends out west??  A New Year, New Opportunity???

 

0z Euro...it's EPS has been steadily honing in on this storm...might need to start a thread in the next day or so...confidence is high that there will be a W GL's cutter...

 

0z EPS showing a small "appetizer" before the potential bigger CO Low early next year...I see the CAM's are picking up on this small system but the finer details need to fine tuned.

 

 

 

06z RGEM...

 

0z EPS for the early system subtract about 1" from the previous wave... @hawkstwelvemay be the biggest storm for you...but NE peeps riding the line...

[Tom]

Looking into the LR pattern, post JAN 5th/6th is when I see a shift towards a colder, but not overwhelming cold pattern, just enough arctic air in the pattern to allow for some "coast-to-coast" action.  There are a couple systems that I am seeing that should produce a potential to lay down some snowfall from the the S Plains into Lower Lakes during the 1/6-1/8 period, then again, another system should target the TX PanHandle region around the 1/10-1/13 period.  The SSW event showing up over Siberia around the 6th is blossoming which will perturb the PV or disrupt the PV causing a Cross Polar Flow pattern.  I think the models are way to warm later in Week 2 and we should start seeing the cold pressing into the lower 48 post 5th/6th of JAN.

0z EPS 500mb animation below is NOT a warm pattern...IMO, I think we will see more of a west/east storm track as the blocking over Canada should prevent storm systems to cut NW.  The overall JAN pattern is going to be ripe for storms to deliver a lot of moisture for our SUB.

 

[chescowxman]

Some spots in Chester County will have a chance to get above freezing for the 1st time since 11:40 am on the 23rd. I saw some local neighbors out on their pond playing a little ice hockey yesterday. However, ice hockey may become more difficult as we move toward the final few days of 2021. We look to see temps warming to above normal starting tomorrow and look to stay that way for likely the next 13 or so days. The models are starting to hint at another return to colder somewhere around the 10th of the New Year. It does look like some rain is likely on NY Eve into NY Day.

The record high for today is 62 degrees from 1949. The record low is 3 degrees below zero today in 1914. The daily rain record is the 1.50" from 1930. Daily snow record is the 4.7" that fell on this date in 1935.

[gabel23]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Nice storm continues to show up for @CentralNebWeather @gabel23and MSP up into Northwoods of Wisco/U.P. as we open 2023...Is a change brewing for our friends out west??  A New Year, New Opportunity???

 

0z Euro...it's EPS has been steadily honing in on this storm...might need to start a thread in the next day or so...confidence is high that there will be a W GL's cutter...

@hawkstwelvemay be the biggest storm for you...but NE peeps riding the line...

This matches up perfectly to the storm back on November 10 on Veterans Day! That one buried the Bismarck area, clearly this time around its further south east. Hoping for that trend to continue. If the Chadron area gets hit by another major storm that area will be in some serious trouble. they just dug out from the last storm system.

 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Anyone have any insight/graphics on what the EPO is expected to do over the next couple of weeks?

Here you go...

[bud2380]

Looks like another nice storm for Minnesota.  It's been a good year for them.  Sioux Falls could get hit hard here as well.  I've seen this storm track a million times, no reason for those of us in Iowa to get excited about a south shift.  But still a nice storm for some to track.  I'll be heading to northern Minnesota at the end of January, my mother in law said they have at least a foot of snow on the ground already, looks like they'll be adding to that.  

 

[Grizzcoat]

DSM year wide aVG  temps-- ( 30 yrs avgs) still 4 days to go. But well below historic (DEC)  and right on

30yr norms (YEARLY) . Agm is not happening (at least at DSM)- Do a detailed look at last 30 years. Top 10 coldest is not so cold anymore, the trend after 2012 seems to have a "pause"? 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Mommy- what’s a “snowstorm”?

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco about the potential storm January 2/3. So you’re saying there’s a chance?  
 

Models bring the next storm system into the Plains around Jan 2-3. Most guidance is in pretty good agreement of a deepening low pressure over E CO Sun night into Mon AM and WAA strong enough to keep low level thermal profile too warm for straight snow. Guidance quickly diverges with the track of the sfc low during the day Mon, which casts considerable uncertainty on precip type and amounts. GFS/Canadian are generally weaker, more progressive and track the sfc low right through Neb, which keeps the local forecast area either in WAA rain or dry slot Mon into Mon night. Deterministic EC takes the system on much more of a traditional "Colorado Low" route thru KS then up I-35 corridor. EC is also stronger and slightly slower, which would favor more snow (potentially significant accum snow for at least parts of the CWA) and wind. Not surprisingly, greater percentage of ensemble members favor accum snow on the EPS compared to GEFS, but even the EPS shows a wide range in outcomes with fairly even distribution. This demonstrates considerable uncertainty in track, which is common for a day 6-7 forecast. Take away point for now is that there looks to be a potentially strong system somewhere in the central and/or northern Plains, just after the new year. Will be closely monitoring model trends over the coming days.

[Madtown]

This looks like a not good start to 23

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lolz.

[Beltrami Island]

Yesterday

Last March same spot with 24+". Didn't think I'd ever see a comparable picture to last march, let alone before new years.

[Clinton]

I made it above freezing as today was the start of a warm up that really cranks up tomorrow and last through the weekend.  I don't mind it to much as long as it doesn't last to long.

[Tom]

Storm Thread hoisted for the New Year's CO Low...

[Tom]

0z EPS suggesting a couple inches over NE before the main event early next week...

[westMJim]

Good Morning! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 26/16. It looks like yesterday will be the last day with highs below 32 for some time. There was just a trace of snow fall yesterday and for season GR has 67.6” and for December 39.6” these totals should stay the same for some time with the warm temperatures. There was 26% of possible sunshine yesterday. The current temperature in MBY is 24. I have 13” of snow still on the ground but that will be going down the rest of this week and into next week. For today the average H/L is 33/22 The record high of 65 was set in 1984 and the record low of -10 was set in 2017 the record snow fall of 5.4” was set in 1999.

 As I stated, the record high for today of 65 was set in 1984. I remember that day. I was transferred to GR in April of 1984 the winter of 1984/85 was the first winter for me in west Michigan. And I remember the night of December 28 and the overnight as well. Late in the day of the 28th a warm front came thru and the temperatures shot up to that 65 after sunset. And it was a warm windy night and there were thunderstorms as well. There may have been a storm warning that night.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[chescowxman]

Today will see our first above freezing reading since last Friday morning. The next 3 days look great with plenty of sun and temps warming into the low 50's by Friday. Shower chances increase by later Friday night into Saturday. The upcoming warming trend appears to be a fairly brief break before more typical seasonably cold January returns by as early as next Friday.

The record high for today is 66 degrees set way back in 1907. The record low is 0 set in 1933. Record rainfall is the 1.76" from 1967. Daily snow record was the 2.6" set in 1990.

[CentralNebWeather]

Already Winter Weather Advisories issued just to my west for the quick moving Thursday storm. I’ll wait to see if they expand eastwards. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I’ve just been added to the Winter Weather Advisory. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, westMJim said:

Good Morning! The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 26/16. It looks like yesterday will be the last day with highs below 32 for some time. There was just a trace of snow fall yesterday and for season GR has 67.6” and for December 39.6” these totals should stay the same for some time with the warm temperatures. There was 26% of possible sunshine yesterday. The current temperature in MBY is 24. I have 13” of snow still on the ground but that will be going down the rest of this week and into next week. For today the average H/L is 33/22 The record high of 65 was set in 1984 and the record low of -10 was set in 2017 the record snow fall of 5.4” was set in 1999.

 As I stated, the record high for today of 65 was set in 1984. I remember that day. I was transferred to GR in April of 1984 the winter of 1984/85 was the first winter for me in west Michigan. And I remember the night of December 28 and the overnight as well. Late in the day of the 28th a warm front came thru and the temperatures shot up to that 65 after sunset. And it was a warm windy night and there were thunderstorms as well. There may have been a storm warning that night.

Me too. That evening after dark some time, I remember my gf jogging in shorts! Wasn't too many days later we were riding snowmobiles. This was in Genesee Cnty. Dec 84 into January 85 was some big-time flip wx. 

[jaster220]

Ofc, over-shadowed by Buffalo's historic bliz but The Soo quietly scored about 4 feet of snow during the Christmas storm and reported a depth of 39" OTG as of yesterday morning. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Going to try and beat the mini snowstorm tomorrow morning. Our varsity girls and boys basketball teams (including my son) play a tournament at Lincoln Lutheran tomorrow at 1 pm and 2:30 pm and consolation or championship games Friday. Looks like if we leave by 8 am we’ll be in good shape.  Not supposed to get a flake just 30 miles east of me, and Lincoln not going to get any snow from what forecasts say. May get a little dicey here in the morning with a potential heavy snow band. 

[Clinton]

56 degrees at 5am this morning.  Last week at this time wind chills were almost 40 below, almost a 100 degree difference in the feels like category.

[westMJim]

The melt down has begun! Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 42/26, there was  no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 50% of the time. And the day started off with 11” on snow on the ground. It looks like the official overnight low at GRR will be 42 here in MBY I had a overnight low of 31 and while the latest reading at GRR is 44 with a DP of 36 here in MBY I have a current temperature of 36 with a DP of 33. For today the average H/L is 33/22 the record high of 65 was recorded in 1984 and the record low of -4 was in 1909. The record snow fall of 5.3” was in 1980. The high for today is forecasted to be near 50. It has only been above 49 on this date 5 times in Grand Rapids recorded history. The official reading of 44 at GRR is already the 11^th warmest for any December 29^th at Grand Rapids.

 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Going to try and beat the mini snowstorm tomorrow morning. Our varsity girls and boys basketball teams (including my son) play a tournament at Lincoln Lutheran tomorrow at 1 pm and 2:30 pm and consolation or championship games Friday. Looks like if we leave by 8 am we’ll be in good shape.  Not supposed to get a flake just 30 miles east of me, and Lincoln not going to get any snow from what forecasts say. May get a little dicey here in the morning with a potential heavy snow band. 

0z EPS increasing totals a bit in NE...

[Tom]

Park City, UT has been my pre-season target for bountiful Snow this ski season.  They picked up 2 feet in the last 24-48 hours and this brings the season total to 14 FEET so far when an avg season they get about 232" (19.3 Feet).  Pretty friggin' remarkable.  Given the pattern that has set up and will likely continue well into the Spring, I bet they surpass 20 Feet of Snow by end of JAN which is tremendous for the entire region.  I'm thrilled to see the S Rockies getting pounded by one storm after another.  It's really a blessing from mother nature and I remember when I visited the area back in early Aug that something was brewing for this area based on the Monsoon patterns and personal gut feeling.

Not to mention, but Snowbowl in Flagstaff got another Foot the other day and will get more through the New Year and beyond.  I love what I'm seeing!

[Ottawa CO, MI]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The melt down has begun! Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 42/26, there was  no rain or snow fall. The sun was out 50% of the time. And the day started off with 11” on snow on the ground. It looks like the official overnight low at GRR will be 42 here in MBY I had a overnight low of 31 and while the latest reading at GRR is 44 with a DP of 36 here in MBY I have a current temperature of 36 with a DP of 33. For today the average H/L is 33/22 the record high of 65 was recorded in 1984 and the record low of -4 was in 1909. The record snow fall of 5.3” was in 1980. The high for today is forecasted to be near 50. It has only been above 49 on this date 5 times in Grand Rapids recorded history. The official reading of 44 at GRR is already the 11^th warmest for any December 29^th at Grand Rapids.

 

I measured 19 inches on the ground Monday AM, 16 inches Tuesday, 12 inches yesterday and 6 inches this AM....for a snow lover, its really sad.....

[chescowxman]

A beautiful and mild next couple of days with temps over 10 degrees above normal in the low 50's. By the middle of next week we may see high temps in the lower 60's. There will be rain chances both Saturday and again in the Tuesday - Wednesday period. By the end of next week temps look to cool to closer to normal. There are even some models hinting at an east coast storm that depending on the track could give some snow here in the Northeast US.

The record high for today is 73 degrees from 1984. The record low is minus 2 degrees from 1917. Daily rain record is the 3.48" in 1901. The record daily snow was the 4.7" that fell today in 1935.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Is anyone actually getting any snow out of this system? All I’m seeing are rain reports and temps in the mid 30s.

I’ve already warmed to 42 degrees here.

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

I measured 19 inches on the ground Monday AM, 16 inches Tuesday, 12 inches yesterday and 6 inches this AM....for a snow lover, its really sad.....

Eviscerated.  The water running of my roof is sad.  At least side roads are getting clearer.  Though it’s a slop fest.  
 

I think winter returns in a week for a bit.  But won’t have staying power 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just got to Lincoln. Bright sunshine. Far cry from Central and Western Nebraska with the rain and then snow falling. 

[gabel23]

25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just got to Lincoln. Bright sunshine. Far cry from Central and Western Nebraska with the rain and then snow falling. 

I-80 might be a tough one on your way back! Drive safe and enjoy, looks like the snow stays off to my west, along and north of the river. 

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I-80 might be a tough one on your way back! Drive safe and enjoy, looks like the snow stays off to my west, along and north of the river. 

Staying overnight tonight. Tournament at Lincoln Lutheran. 

[westMJim]

The current temperature of 48 is a tie for the 6th warmest December of recorded history here in Grand Rapids. Here in MBY I now have a reading of 49. 

 

[Hawkeye]

It is almost 60º here, way higher than expected.