April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've really been wanting to get up there. I know there are still a lot of snowdrifts up the valley, just judging by people I've talked to who have gone or pictures I've seen.

 

And yeah, the damage to the trees, especially alders, from the ice storms is unbelievable. I was quite surprised to see many of them still leafing out. They are pretty resilient.

I would really love to do the Eagle Creek trail sometime. It is one of the classic PNW hikes. From what I hear it gets so crowded during the summer, but maybe during the week early and late in the season it's not so bad?

[Jesse]

I would really love to do the Eagle Creek trail sometime. It is one of the classic PNW hikes. From what I hear it gets so crowded during the summer, but maybe during the week early and late in the season it's not so bad?

It's really one of a kind. Spring is actually my favorite season to do it in. Everything is greening up and there is falling water everywhere. Pick a showers and sun breaks type of day during the week like last Monday or Friday, and you should have a good time without the crowds being too bad.

 

But yeah, hiking has gotten incredibly popular the last decade or so. It's a good thing in a way since it means more people are getting exposed to nature (as long as they are respectful out there), but overcrowding has become an issue on sunny weekends, even on trails that used to see very little traffic period.

[GobBluth]

Wow it sure looks like the hyped ridge next week will be at best very dirty.

[Jesse]

Wow it sure looks like the hyped ridge next week will be at best very dirty.

Many runs show it getting knocked down after just a day or two.

 

I still think many places see their warmest day of the year so far on Friday or Saturday, though.

[Jesse]

It's one of my favorite spots to spend a rainy day working on code.

 

How is it possible to find any enjoyment in a rainy day? There must be something wrong with you. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's really one of a kind. Spring is actually my favorite season to do it in. Everything is greening up and there is falling water everywhere. Pick a showers and sun breaks type of day during the week like last Monday or Friday, and you should have a good time without the crowds being too bad.

 

But yeah, hiking has gotten incredibly popular the last decade or so. It's a good thing in a way since it means more people are getting exposed to nature (as long as they are respectful out there), but overcrowding has become an issue on sunny weekends, even on trails that used to see very little traffic period.

 

I went to Opal Creek last April. I've done that hike a million times and it is always fairly busy on weekends, especially when the weather is nice, but I couldn't believe how absolutely packed it was. We got there pretty early in the morning and still had to park about a mile from the trailhead. I guess there are new rules going into place this year surrounding all that. 

 

Silver Falls has always been packed so seeing a lot of people on that hike is nothing new. If you go before noon though its usually surprisingly peaceful. Shellburg Falls is still peaceful if you go during the week. I haven't don Jefferson Park in a few years, but I have always waited until September to do that hike.

 

Did Green Lakes a lot when I was a kid, that trail was always packed even back then in the 90s. 

[DareDuck]

I'm not sure what my work schedule will be this summer as I'm looking for a new job, but for the past year and a half I've had Tuesdays and Wednesdays off which has been really nice for hiking. I worked while everyone was on the trails and got the trails to myself during the middle of the week.

[TT-SEA]

How is it possible to find any enjoyment in a rainy day? There must be something wrong with you. 

 

Yeah... isolate one day and imply everyone is crazy without making reference to the fact that its rained almost every day since the end of January.   

[Jesse]

Yeah... isolate one day and imply everyone is crazy without making reference to the fact that its rained almost every day since the end of January.   

 

Hook, line and sinker!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be a wet afternoon down here.

[TT-SEA]

Hook, line and sinker!

 

If you want to troll then I am looking forward to payback.   

[Jesse]

If you want to troll then I am looking forward to payback.

As long as you don't get carried away like usual and make 80 posts to the one I just did, that is just fine.

[Phil]

If you want to troll then I am looking forward to payback.

In about 5-6 weeks, we'll have a much better idea whether the second half of summer will transition into a warm west/+PNA pattern, or continue with the GOA/west coast trough and extended upper level jet. Dynamical modeling points to the warmer/niño solution, while analogs point to the cool/+neutral solution.

 

If the upcoming MJO/WWB doesn't pack a punch by mid-May, then it will be tougher to reverse the submissive dateline/IO regimes, and the move towards a Niño will be slow and pathetic.

[TT-SEA]

As long as you don't get carried away like usual and make 80 posts to the one I just did, that is just fine.

 

I was not trolling you when its warm.   

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be a wet afternoon down here.

 

Rain will hold off until late this afternoon here... feels warmer than yesterday with more humidity and no wind at all.

 

[Front Ranger]

Spending a chunk of my day at the Columbia Center at the 40th floor Starbucks. Lovely view of the city. The clouds are starting to break over the Olympics, making for a stunning view.

 

Ever go up to the 70th (I think?) floor? Highest public viewing area west of the Mississippi. Amazing views, pretty cool to actually look down on the Space Needle.

[Phil]

The early 1990s and early 1980s continue to dominate the analog pool. Also interesting to note that 1993 has made up 17% of all analogs listed since 2/1, and close to 63% of all analog listings have fallen within the periods of 1980-1983 and 1990-1997, which is pretty insane.

 

So, it's no surprise that the latest run based on the GEFS and Canadian ensembles continues this theme:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hght_comp_can610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

[TT-SEA]

The early 1990s and early 1980s continue to dominate the analog pool. Also interesting to note that 1993 has made up 17% of all analogs listed since 2/1, and close to 63% of all analog listings have fallen within the periods of 1980-1983 and 1990-1997, which is pretty insane.

 

So, it's no surprise that the latest run based on the GEFS and Canadian ensembles continues this theme:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hght_comp_can610.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

I hope we stick with 1993 for May. Lots of 70s and 80s here and dry days after the first week of the month. Then we can dump 1993.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In September I should have a good handle on how summer 2017 will play out.

[TT-SEA]

Also Phil... you mentioned the 1993 analog since 2/1.

 

But in 1993 we had the driest February in history and in 2017 we had the wettest February in history.   

[Front Ranger]

Dry/warm May, wet/cool June, then normal-ish July-September.

 

Book it.

[TT-SEA]

Dry/warm May, wet/cool June, then normal-ish July-September.

 

Book it.

 

I will believe dry/warm May when I see it.   

 

Not feeling it right now... this pattern shows no sign of changing.  And any small ridge shown in the models later in the run... completely collapses as the time approaches.

[Phil]

Also Phil... you mentioned the 1993 analog since 2/1.

 

But in 1993 we had the driest February in history and in 2017 we had the wettest February in history.

No, I said "since 2/1", meaning when when I started keeping track of the analog listings.

 

Back in 1993, the EPAC standing wave didn't mature into a low frequency feature until March, while this year the coupling began in mid/late January.

 

Also, you need to broaden your reference period to better capture the lower frequency, seasonal-scale pattern tendencies, as opposed to the subseasonal variability that will occur in every year. You'll never find an analog that matches your observed weather on a multi-week basis. That's not the purpose of analog forecasting.

[seattleweatherguy]

I will believe dry/warm May when I see it.

 

Not feeling it right now... this pattern shows no sign of changing. And any small ridge shown in the models later in the run... completely collapses as the time approaches.

I will take this over a hot summer

[TT-SEA]

I will take this over a hot summer

 

Yes... daily rain with highs in the 50s would be awesome all summer.   Seasons suck.  

[Jesse]

Yes... daily rain with highs in the 50s would be awesome all summer. Seasons suck.

Personally I think differing opinions suck even more than seasons.

[crf450ish]

What happened to everyone that used to post on here? I don't post much either. Forum dead during spring summer and fall?

[ShawniganLake]

What happened to everyone that used to post on here? I don't post much either. Forum dead during spring summer and fall?

Pretty much. Just the usual warm vs. Cold rain preference battles.

 

I personally haven't met a single person who thinks this spring has been even a little bit enjoyable.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much. Just the usual warm vs. Cold rain preference battles.

 

I personally haven't met a single person who thinks this spring has been even a little bit enjoyable.

 

 

Me either.    Not one.   

[WeatherArchive]

I do!  This spring is a lot better then last year's nightmare.   I'll take this any day.  This is more Ireland-esque with mild/chilly nights and okay days.   If you like Ireland you'll enjoy this Spring though even they get a bit more sun then this.

 

Unlike here they do record sunshine hours and have records back to the 1800s.

[TT-SEA]

I do!  This spring is a lot better then last year's nightmare.   I'll take this any day.  This is more Ireland-esque with mild/chilly nights and okay days.   If you like Ireland you'll enjoy this Spring though even they get a bit more sun then this.

 

Unlike here they do record sunshine hours and have records back to the 1800s.

 

Where do you live?

 

The second half of May and good part of June last year were quite cloudy and damp and chilly.   The first week of June was hot in between two extended stretched of gloomy weather.

[Trainwreck]

I personally am ready for some warmer (70ish) weather and partly cloudy days. It's been bad over here in Redmond too despite the fact we typically get 275 days of sun a year. It's been gloomy, twice the norm here which is probably about twice as nice on that "side". I want nice weather, not hot weather which is around the corner over here.

[IbrChris]

Good lord.

Generally snark elicits a response in-kind. I can do snark as easy as anyone else on here.

[Guest happ]

Next 46-days from ECMWF weekly ensembles suggest a warm May in the Southwest and coastal PacificNW

 

[Jesse]

Been a pretty nice spring so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a pretty nice spring so far.

Honestly it's been pretty boring. Wet but neither warm nor cool. Just haven't hit 65 or 70 because it's been cloudy not because we ve had cold air masses.

[TT-SEA]

Been a pretty nice spring so far.

Likely the wettest Feb-Apr ever up here and has never been this persistently wet in that period. Odd opinion for someone who likes clear and cool weather. I think you are trolling.

 

We also had the wettest winter ever in 2015-16.

[Front Ranger]

Yes... daily rain with highs in the 50s would be awesome all summer. Seasons suck.

Back to back 60+ at SEA!

[IbrChris]

Next 46-days from ECMWF weekly ensembles suggest a warm May in the Southwest and coastal PacificNW

That's not gonna help the fires in the SE...unless it's warm and wet.

 

I'm fine if 80+ waits until June but let's at least have a smattering of 70s between now and June. I'm not sure if I recall how to use my barbeque.

[James Jones]

What happened to everyone that used to post on here? I don't post much either. Forum dead during spring summer and fall?

 

Spring is always the quietest time of year on this forum.

 

And count me among those who think this spring has been boring as hell, aside from the windstorm a couple Fridays ago. At the risk of sounding like Tim, it's been basically nothing but constant gloomy SW flow with little to no temperature variation. 2008 was an enjoyable and interesting spring, this one is not.