2/28-3/2 Potential Storm

[DominicR]

Not bad. 3-6 inches plus any bonus from Lake.

[Madtown]

So Madison looking at 4-6?

[Money]

I think all of S. WI/N. IL and IA could be looking at a general 4-6 from the 2 waves combined. 3rd wave looks like a miss south, but still time for things to change.

 

GFS showing several clippers next week that could bring an additional 4-5 for S. WI. 

[Trinomial]

Not to ask again, but any idea on timing of the first 2 waves. Wondering if traveling Saturday morning will be impacted. Thanks so much for any info.

[Tom]

The ULL will be approaching S Cali later tonight so I expect 00z runs to have better sampling...Saturday 12z runs may even have some surprises as well.  Models tend to have a bias on holding energy back in the SW longer than expected which can have an impact in the overall track.  Interested to see 12z Euro run today if it jogs north or south.  BTW, this is almost a carbon copy of the Jan 4-5th storm.

[Tom]

12z 4KM NAM...

[Tony]

It still is amazing to me that a 980mb low weakens so much as it heads east. If this baby can come out stronger then we have a better chance of the main wave to come north no matter how strong the PV but if it the modeling is currently correct then we need that PV to be farther north like the 6z GFS was showing. I believe the northern stream has everything to do with why the models are wobbling all over the place.

 

As Tom alluded to we will have partial sampling on the 0z runs and should have full sampling tomorrow 12z. A fun 24hrs ahead and I still believe the models will trend farther north but not sure how far north it can go.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

#2 on the all time snowcover consecutive days list, here we come (granted they've only been keeping track of data for 65 years).

[Tony]

Another thing I cannot understand is where is the dynamics for our area especially since we are located at the right entrance region of a 160 knot jet. There are so many things that do not make any sense with this storm.

[Tom]

Trinomial, snow should start falling around 6-7:00pm tomorrow...the Hawks game will probably be seeing snow falling.

[DominicR]

Skilling going with 3-6 inches. Maybe lake enhancement.

[Jaycee]

SE Nebraska goes from 10-12 on 6z GFS to 1-2 on the 12z.

 

Ouch.

Every Nebraskan including myself

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/mad-at-theinternet.gif

[Sciascia]

GEFS south. All of them, apparently.

[DominicR]

Every Nebraskan including myself

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/mad-at-theinternet.gif

:lol:

[Niko]

GGEM and UKMET latest runs actually went north versus earlier runs. An improvement.

[james1976]

nam and gfs are consistently showing 6+ for me for the weekend. i would take that

[Sciascia]

Just judging by the low placement, Euro looks south.

[Tom]

Wow, 12z Euro went way south...weak with Sat night wave as well....

 

[DominicR]

Give up on that 3rd wave man. 2nd wave will be N IA/N IL/S WI/MI. A good 3-6 inches. Maybe even more near lake.

[DominicR]

Wow, 12z Euro went way south...weak with Sat night wave as well....

 

Wow. All in own world.

[Tom]

Skilling said 4-8" may be in the cards with LehS...I find it hard to believe the Euro is right on the 2nd wave.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is radically drier along the I-80 corridor than any other model.  The Saturday wave is very solid on the nam/gfs/gem/uk, but just abysmal on the Euro.

[clintbeed1993]

 

Our constant message from Mother Nature in Nebraska.

[6789]

Not going to lie I laughed hysterically at the man smashing the computer hahaha, as well as the YOU GET NOTHING! I still dislike the way models are handling this system, but I have a feeling the Southern trend is the way to go. We have had our fair share of storms this winter, but to be honest if this isn't going to be 12" event I don't want it! Bold statement I know but that's the way I feel at this time of the year.

[Tom]

I'll start paying attention to high rez models for 00z runs tonight and see if there are any shifts.  Current thinking is if the ULL can eject out faster out of the SW it can jog north, if it holds back, then the heavier snowfall will be suppressed.  If forecasts hold the way there are right now, I would say 3-6" with locally more lakeside for N IL.

[Tony]

Here is JB's take on the modeling:

 

February 28 01:50 PM

 

There is a two fold problem with the storm that renders the model snow amounts questionable at best. That does not mean they cant be right. But what we are seeing here is the model jumping on a front impulse and pushing more cold air, and by doing so pushing the snow south.

This could be the start of a trend, or perhaps not, a glich so to speak. I really cant tell at this time, and have to watch it. The feedback of the front running system could be an error. For one, the GFS loves to do that. For 2 the ECWMF is weak on systems moving out of the southwest. What may be happening is both errors are at play here. The modeling 2-3 days away tends to have problems. What is interesting is the 2 models most far south yesterday, the Canadian and WRF have shifted north. So the reduction of liquid is problem one ( actually the push south)

[Sciascia]

Overnight look off the coast:
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-266-0-88659600-1393614995.jpg

 

Another satellite image:
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southwest/current/southwest.ir.gif

 

 

Doesn't this thing just look powerful?

[midwest buildit]

2nd wave is our best chance here. Looking at upper temps,jet stream and wind profiles. I dont see how that third wave can come north at all. And from what i can tell that low pressure off the coast of cali never really makes it to far inland before it gets shattered, all i see that low doing for us is feeding moister into the trough that is forming these disturbances. That low and high pressure in canada is like a giant block and it slides south/east over the next 3-4 days. Pushing everything south with it.

 

how does that sound? cause i know nothing really.lol , only what i have observed from several models.

[Tom]

The ridge in the west does shear apart the storm hitting Cali and that is why the storm looses so much juice.  Once this energy comes onshore, it will translate into the models.

[Sciascia]

This baby, btw, has a name. According to TWC, we are tracking...Titan.

[gabel23]

Overnight look off the coast:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-266-0-88659600-1393614995.jpg

 

Another satellite image:

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/southwest/current/southwest.ir.gif

 

 

 

 

Doesn't this thing just look powerful?

 

 

 

This thing looks like a beast! I'm still not jumping on any model until this thing comes to shore tonight. Just can't leave model to model, on another note I wouldn't be surprised if this thing stays south as that has been the case all winter long with these types of systems. 

[gabel23]

This baby, btw, has a name. According to TWC, we are tracking...Titan.

 

 

I love the fact that Henry Marguisity of Accu makes fun of the weather channel for naming storms on his blog all the time! 

[Sciascia]

SREF's holding a mean at just over 6" for ORD.

[Money]

18z NAM coming in a tad farther north with Wave 2. Looks just as strong though

[Trinomial]

Do we think it will be snowing for the hawks game? That will be fun to watch!

[Tom]

18z NAM looking good for NE/IA through 6:00pm Saturday.

[Money]

18z NAM looking good for NE/IA through 6:00pm Saturday.

 

Yup. Looks like the precip is hanging out longer and overall it's less suppressed through hr 33.

[Tom]

According to the 18z NAM, it may start snowing during the 2nd or 3rd period for the Hawks game...

[james1976]

bullseye!

[Money]

Chicago gonna get nailed this run. Quite a big jump from 12z so far.