Tom Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Midwest, Springfield is under a WSW and their Grid forecast is for 6-14" of snow! What the theck??? Snowman, you can easily fluff that up to 15:1 snow ratios so very high end advisory snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 i dont think any of the models show the same thing happening, thats why im holding onto my 1% chance of 18".. The southern part of the snow area is what really gets me. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The southern part of the snow area is what really gets me. yea and throw in the ggem and the euro and it gets even uglier....lol Midwest, Springfield is under a WSW and their Grid forecast is for 6-14" of snow! What the theck??? Snowman, you can easily fluff that up to 15:1 snow ratios so very high end advisory snowfall.where are the getting that from.???? thats a crazy amount with only what?, one model showing 9". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 wow, what a mess with models for the 2nd and 3rd wave. tomorrow will be interesting how this plays out.this evening has been great over here. still snowing lightly, just measured 1.6" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 is that the next wave in nebraska already? not much of a break! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 even the sref's mean is all over the place. lol currently at 5.23 ord Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hey Tom, how the EURO look for the wave tomorrow? Still dry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z Euro...come on now...what the hell are the models smoking???? So much inconsistency and we are less than 24 hours away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Is most of the QPF in S. WI still from this wave going on right now, or is it with the wave tomorrow night? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 ARW/NMM 48 HR Precip http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4CENT_0z/ptot48.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 so nashville gets destroyed? doubt it. what a disaster with these model runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Money, deduct about .10 from tonight's precip... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Trash the models, if there was a general agreement, then we would be fine. We won't know until the actual event begins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z Euro...come on now...what the hell are the models smoking???? So much inconsistency and we are less than 24 hours away.dude, you drew that yourself in paint. no way thats real. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 ^ LOL, if Nashville gets more snow than us here...this would be the biggest bust in history. On Wx Bell maps, it doesn't do a good job indicating where freezing rain/sleet falls so that is probably what it would be instead of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 No predictions here. It's impossible to do, simply impossible. Whether it's 1", 2", or 6", I'm just going to enjoy whatever falls. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 yea more than likely ice.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_72hr/prb_72hicez_ge.25_2014030100f072.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 we have a better chance of 12" according to this than springfield does. But our forecasts are complete oposites. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_72hr/prb_72hsnow_ge12_2014030100f072.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 25-30 dbz already showing up in N. NE or so. RAP shows that it should be about 15-20 dbz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nashville is projected to get a little bit of rain and freezing rain, according to their grid from this aft. Here is the 0z euro for them: MON 00Z 03-MAR 3.6 8.1 1017 97 100 0.21 569 555 MON 06Z 03-MAR -0.2 5.3 1016 97 94 0.70 564 551 MON 12Z 03-MAR -6.1 -2.8 1021 84 100 0.74 557 541 MON 18Z 03-MAR -2.7 -6.0 1025 61 57 0.06 558 538 TUE 00Z 04-MAR -7.5 -3.8 1028 77 12 0.00 561 539 TUE 06Z 04-MAR -11.9 0.8 1027 87 14 0.00 562 541 0.7 FZR 0.80 SN lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 NAM a bit south and more narrow with band of snow tonight..Good hit N IL with a solid 8-9hr of mod snow. Puts Chicago right in the 6-8 band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The difference between NAM and HRRR/RAP through HR 15-18 is stunning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The difference between NAM and HRRR/RAP through HR 18 is stunning. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 we could be looking a northward shift by saturday night with greater than 8' snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meichel Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Bit of a surprise, woke up to 1.25" on the ground. Maybe tonight can over perform as well. Point forecast calling for less than 1" today, 3-7" tonight. 18º currently. Quote On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z NAM is a lot quicker with the band. Only shows 2-3 inches area wide compared to the 6-8 that the 06Z showed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 already moderate snow here and only 2 degrees. was gonna clean the driveway this morning before the next round but the snow beat me to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I only got a trace or maybe 0.1" from the first system late Friday, so it's all down to system #2 today. I'm not optimistic. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah NAM keeps going furthur south with that band each run. Will see what happens with GFS. Not feeling to good about this right now t.\o. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Storm cancel in my mind. went from 12" to maybe 6-8" to 4-6" now down to 1-3" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 current radar seems north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 1.3" here this morning. Slightly more than expected. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Gfs is pretty weak has 1.5-3" areawide. Looking like moreso of a 2-4" event hrrr/rap not to impressive either having this thing moving out quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Haha (and I say that exhaustedly) I feel like I've wasted too much energy on what is slowly showing to be a minor event. The LRC didn't really pan out this time around. Model chaos was supreme too. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Report of 1" to my west and east, and that seems like a pretty realistic amount for here as well, although I don't know if I can find an official measurement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 thought this was a late afternoon evening event looks to be moving in already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Only 12:1 ratio from the snow this morning. Flake size must have not been that decent. Sun is actually out now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 So we are thinking 1-3" now possibly 5", I think that's a stretch, especially if this is moving faster. It seems like a lot of the systems have been under estimated in speed. Is the jet stream stronger around here now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 If you look at the water vapor imagery you can see all that pacific moisture being thrown up our way. Hard to believe by looking at this that the moisture being shown on the models is pretty much nothing. Will be curious to see how the radar progresses throughout the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 LOT upped P&C to 5-9" to some places others 4-7" so it seems like their sticking with their gun. WGN/CLTV met posted on twitter hes sticking with the 3-6" range even with the 12z trending down. LOT upped timing thats all otherwise they maintained totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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