PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Winterdog]

I feel like I live in a different country than most of you.  I had .25" of precip last night and all of it was rain.  There were a few blobs mixed in for a while but not a flake.  My low was 34 and it's now 37.  

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Much more to the south, though. Let's not forget that SEA saw 5 sub-freezing highs last December, including 3 in a row in the 20s. That is not common historically.

Most people around here remember Decembers to remember.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with 1.4" of actual accumulation last night, but could have easily had an extra inch if the snow hadn't gotten so wet.

I would of loved to see this storm come into a arctic airmass. My favorite thing around here is watch it snow in the low 20's. Would of been a massive dump of dry snow. 

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still doesn't really get there for Portland... but should be some snow tomorrow and tomorrow night.  

 

Not bad for east king. I’ll take it

[TacomaWx]

We’re up to 69.4” of snow since December 2016 as of this morning. We had 61.5” here from February 2006-December 2016...a lot more snow in a shorter timeframe the last 6 years. 
2016-2017-8.0”

2017-2018-5.5”

2018-2019-23.0”

2019-2020-2.0”

2020-2021-15.5”

2021-2022-11.3”

2022-2023-4.1”

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

I feel like I live in a different country than most of you.  I had .25" of precip last night and all of it was rain.  There were a few blobs mixed in for a while but not a flake.  My low was 34 and it's now 37.  

Totally weird how much trouble you are having so far this season.  I'm sure it will happen soon enough.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I would of loved to see this storm come into a arctic airmass. My favorite thing around here is watch it snow in the low 20's. Would of been a massive dump of dry snow. 

That could have easily happened if things had gone just a tiny bit differently leading up to last night.  This past several days has fallen just a notch short of what could have been an amazing run.  Still pretty solid for many of us though.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with 1.4" of actual accumulation last night, but could have easily had an extra inch if the snow hadn't gotten so wet.

My expectations were so low it was fun. Plus last nights snow was fairly heavy. Any thoughts on tomorrow?

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS was below normal every single day for SEA.  Makes you wonder if a big cold wave might emerge on the models in the coming days.  Quite frankly a reset seems due though which might give us a milder period before some bigger goodies come later on.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That could have easily happened if things had gone just a tiny bit differently leading up to last night.  This past several days has fallen just a notch short of what could have been an amazing run.  Still pretty solid for many of us though.

It’s still been a really impressive stretch but just 1-2 degrees colder we could’ve had 8-10 inches of snow this week. Still we pretty much snatched victory from the jaws of defeat this week. Things looked bleak on Sunday. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

My expectations were so low it was fun. Plus last nights snow was fairly heavy. Any thoughts on tomorrow?

I think the low level air that will be in place for tomorrow will support snow if the moisture makes it this far north.  East winds will flood us with chilly dry air over the next 18 hours or so and then it will go almost calm.  Some similarity to Jan 1, 2004 which was  a nice surprise snow for us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That could have easily happened if things had gone just a tiny bit differently leading up to last night.  This past several days has fallen just a notch short of what could have been an amazing run.  Still pretty solid for many of us though.

It was my birthday so I looked at the extended model runs. We have plenty more chances coming the next 2 weeks. The way things look I could see snow staying on the ground here until Christmas. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s still been a really impressive stretch but just 1-2 degrees colder we could’ve had 8-10 inches of snow this week. Still we pretty much snatched victory from the jaws of defeat this week. Things looked bleak on Sunday. 

I'm really happy.  The pattern was pretty messy, but we got some good wins.  My personal favorite was the clear, cold, moonlit night with snow on the ground Thursday night.  Can't beat that!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It was my birthday so I looked at the extended model runs. We have plenty more chances coming the next 2 weeks. The way things look I could see snow staying on the ground here until Christmas. 

All you need is for us to not go into a "normal" pattern.  Even cool and mostly dry would keep snow on the ground for you.  Once dense snow freezes up it's hard to melt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just realized my 3 year average snowfall is 35 inches per year so far.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the low level air that will be in place for tomorrow will support snow if the moisture makes it this far north.  East winds will flood us with chilly dry air over the next 18 hours or so and then it will go almost calm.  Some similarity to Jan 1, 2004 which was  a nice surprise snow for us.

I have little doubt that system will make its way north enough to give light snow to Puget sound.  I really would like Portland to score .

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s still been a really impressive stretch but just 1-2 degrees colder we could’ve had 8-10 inches of snow this week. Still we pretty much snatched victory from the jaws of defeat this week. Things looked bleak on Sunday. 

And turned out even worse than I expected . Models were showing anywhere from 6-15" of snow for the coming week here last Sunday and I ended up with nothing. Never seen so much phantom snow in my life. But it does look like most other places Everett south met or exceeded expectations which is nice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All you need is for us to not go into a "normal" pattern.  Even cool and mostly dry would keep snow on the ground for you.  Once dense snow freezes up it's hard to melt.

We have a frozen 5 inch base from Tuesday and now this last 8 inches, 11 very dense inches isn't going anywhere soon.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re up to 69.4” of snow since December 2016 as of this morning. We had 61.5” here from February 2006-December 2016...a lot more snow in a shorter timeframe the last 6 years. 
2016-2017-8.0”

2017-2018-5.5”

2018-2019-23.0”

2019-2020-2.0”

2020-2021-15.5”

2021-2022-11.3”

2022-2023-4.1”

And yet the 2006-16 period had more actual Arctic air masses. Which would people prefer?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says next Saturday will be pretty depressing compared to the beauty of today.    A screaming south wind and temps into the low 50s and pouring rain.    

[Doinko]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

And yet the 2006-16 period had more actual Arctic air masses. Which would people prefer?

I would easily prefer the 2006-2016 period in Portland. Though I would include January 2017, I had 14" of snow that month.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet the 2006-16 period had more actual Arctic air masses. Which would people prefer?

I prefer the past few years. We’ve had a good run recently. 

[Deweydog]

Olsen Twins trying to make it to grandmother’s house on AMC. It’s truly awful… until I saw the release date!

[Cold Snap]

8 hours ago, Perturbed Member said:

That's fair, I did notice the 3km was better.

The GFS is pretty much calling for 1/10/17 version 2. This is the new upgraded GFS I believe. It will either look like a genius or a total joke after this. 

If the GFS does manage to verify that would be insane for you guys. Kinda hoping it does! I remember hearing that the 1/10/17 snowfall was a once in every 25 year event for the Portland area. So to get one that big again just under 6 years later would be pretty crazy!

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF says next Saturday will be pretty depressing compared to the beauty of today.    A screaming south wind and temps into the low 50s and pouring rain.    

Leave it to you to find the one mild day on the run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF says next Saturday will be pretty depressing compared to the beauty of today.    A screaming south wind and temps into the low 50s and pouring rain.    

I can't believe how bad the euro did with this snow storm here. Even the nam did better. I made a comment last weekend that by today me and you might have over a foot on the ground today. We both have a foot lol.

[Snownerd3000]

Ready for more! Only Dec 3rd. Lots of winter left to go. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

If the GFS does manage to verify that would be insane for you guys. Kinda hoping it does! I remember hearing that the 1/10/17 snowfall was a once in every 25 year event for the Portland area. So to get one that big again just under 6 years later would be pretty crazy!

That setup was pretty drastically different. Very complicated but also very explosive from a meteorological perspective. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Leave it to you to find the one mild day on the run.

I am just hoping to avoid a snow destroying pattern for my backyard.    Total weenie when I have December snow to protect.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

[seattleweatherguy]

Got about 2 to 3 inches last night

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I can't believe how bad the euro did with this snow storm here. Even the nam did better. I made a comment last weekend that by today me and you might have over a foot on the ground today. We both have a foot lol.

ECMWF did great with precip placement and timing... like almost perfect.   And it showed my area would basically miss out on the snow in contrast to the GFS which is also what happened.    It might have underestimated your snow but it did way better overall than the other models.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My favorite pic from lastnight. 

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

And turned out even worse than I expected . Models were showing anywhere from 6-15" of snow for the coming week here last Sunday and I ended up with nothing. Never seen so much phantom snow in my life. But it does look like most other places Everett south met or exceeded expectations which is nice.

You and @Winterdog got completely hosed. On Sunday it looked like this was going to be an exclusively kitsap peninsula/Everett north event. I’m sure in a few weeks time though…this will be forgotten and a lot of people will score. 

[bainbridgekid]

23 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re up to 69.4” of snow since December 2016 as of this morning. We had 61.5” here from February 2006-December 2016...a lot more snow in a shorter timeframe the last 6 years. 
2016-2017-8.0”

2017-2018-5.5”

2018-2019-23.0”

2019-2020-2.0”

2020-2021-15.5”

2021-2022-11.3”

2022-2023-4.1”

That’s an AWESOME stretch for Tacoma. Guessing your long term average is only about 5-6” per year there.

I’ve had 78 inches since February 2019 here in Everett. Seriously impressed by that too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Weak.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My favorite pic from lastnight. 

Great pic... it feels like I am there.     You have great yard lights to see the snow falling at night!  

[Seattle]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really happy.  The pattern was pretty messy, but we got some good wins.  My personal favorite was the clear, cold, moonlit night with snow on the ground Thursday night.  Can't beat that!

Was there!? It was cold Thursday night but sadly nothing to support it over here. I would hope the population centers, north (Bellingham), central (Seattle), and south (Portland and valley) can get something more.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

9 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

I've been stuck around 35F now for about an hour, but it's almost all snow and the radar is looking a little better. Probably still need it to drop another degree or two to really see any accumulation.

Ended up with just a bit of slush on the grass that was gone by the morning. Hopefully you did better over there. This has easily been the most frustrating stretch of the past decade years here, lots of snow to the north and south but virtually nothing here. The GFS shows this pattern continuing.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Great pic... it feels like I am there.     You have great yard lights to see the snow falling at night!  

Thanks man, I just use a giant led light pointed up. I have it for that reason only .