PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet the 2006-16 period had more actual Arctic air masses. Which would people prefer?

Either works for me. Of course that 10 year stretch had some awful winters like 2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Ended up with just a bit of slush on the grass that was gone by the morning. Hopefully you did better over there. This has easily been the most frustrating stretch of the past decade years here, lots of snow to the north and south but virtually nothing here. The GFS shows this pattern continuing.

 

ECMWF will make you feel better... its insisting on a pattern reset coming later next week.   Still time for it to change but it probably makes sense at this point.   

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Either works for me. Of course that 10 year stretch had some awful winters like 2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016. 

Yeah, I'd say the lack of duds since 2016 kinda makes up for the lack of really cold air masses.

But of course, we can't say PNW winters have truly been redeemed until a region-wide Arctic air mass and accompanying snowstorms occurs in January. No matter how much February and December outperform.

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have little doubt that system will make its way north enough to give light snow to Puget sound.  I really would like Portland to score .

I definitely think we atleast see some flakes fly on Sunday…but I’m not sure about accumulation yet. Looks like it’s not as favorable timing for snow as the events so far this week…and it’s still uncertain just how much precipitation works north. If the models are just slightly off and it ends up just a bit farther north with heavier precip sunday could be pretty interesting. Looks chilly with a high of 35 right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

I definitely think we atleast see some flakes fly on Sunday…but I’m not sure about accumulation yet. Looks like it’s not as favorable timing for snow as the events so far this week…and it’s still uncertain just how much precipitation works north. If the models are just slightly off and it ends up just a bit farther north with heavier precip sunday could be pretty interesting. Looks chilly with a high of 35 right now. 

I think most everywhere from Seattle south and east will have snow falling tomorrow afternoon. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I'd say the lack of duds since 2016 kinda makes up for the lack of really cold air masses.

But of course, we can't say PNW winters have truly been redeemed until a region-wide Arctic air mass and accompanying snowstorms occurs in January. No matter how much February and December outperform.

Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we get nailed before the end of the month…then January ends up pretty boring and we score a modest event in mid February somehow. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF will make you feel better... its insisting on a pattern reset coming later next week.   Still time for it to change but it probably makes sense at this point.   

A pattern reset would be fun. I wouldn't mind a stretch of our typical rainy/stormy fall weather then maybe a chance at a real Arctic blast afterward.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I'd say the lack of duds since 2016 kinda makes up for the lack of really cold air masses.

But of course, we can't say PNW winters have truly been redeemed until a region-wide Arctic air mass and accompanying snowstorms occurs in January. No matter how much February and December outperform.

Eh, the coldest temp in 19-20 was 23F on Oct 26. A dud for here so it wasn't a great PNW winter regionally.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think most everywhere from Seattle south and east will have snow falling tomorrow afternoon. 

Hoping for a 6th straight over performing event tomorrow! 

[Terreboner]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That setup was pretty drastically different. Very complicated but also very explosive from a meteorological perspective. 

Yep, very different but I do believe the day of, the 5 O'clock news was still sticking to 1/2-3" totals widespread.  Pretty crazy how variable things can get as they occur.  I think that is what made that night so magical.  I started to see flurries around 5-5:30 and figured a couple hours of this and done.  Boy was I wrong.

[Terreboner]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The 384 hour Kuchera always reminds me of discovering PornHub when I was a young lad.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Yep, very different but I do believe the day of, the 5 O'clock news was still sticking to 1/2-3" totals widespread.  Pretty crazy how variable things can get as they occur.  I think that is what made that night so magical.  I started to see flurries around 5-5:30 and figured a couple hours of this and done.  Boy was I wrong.

That was all the model noise, though. 1/10/17 featured a fairly strong open wave and pretty stout amount of CAA feeding it, coming together simultaneously. Very dynamic. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, the coldest temp in 19-20 was 23F on Oct 26. A dud for here so it wasn't a great PNW winter regionally.

2019-20 was solidly chilly in February and March. 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF will make you feel better... its insisting on a pattern reset coming later next week.   Still time for it to change but it probably makes sense at this point.   

And then there's the Canadian.

[Skier B]

Always a great feeling walking through the snow to get firewood.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eh, the coldest temp in 19-20 was 23F on Oct 26. A dud for here so it wasn't a great PNW winter regionally.

Sure. But even the biggest "dud" since 2016 still had some decent lowland action, which just shows what kind of stretch it's been.

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Ended up with just a bit of slush on the grass that was gone by the morning. Hopefully you did better over there. This has easily been the most frustrating stretch of the past decade years here, lots of snow to the north and south but virtually nothing here. The GFS shows this pattern continuing.

 

I’m not home this weekend but reports from home said we had about 6.5” at Shawnigan Lake yesterday and last night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39/27 yesterday. Our inch of snow from Thursday mostly melted. Drove up on the ridge looking for my dogs this morning (they ended up being across the street helping the neighbor with yard work), and there were still a couple inches up there. Also in the low 40s up on the ridge, 37.6 here after a low of 28.

Feels like winter, can’t complain too much after how much we over achieved in April and early November. 

[Meatyorologist]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF says next Saturday will be pretty depressing compared to the beauty of today.    A screaming south wind and temps into the low 50s and pouring rain.    

Pattern wreset!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sure. But even the biggest "dud" since 2016 still had some decent lowland action, which just shows what kind of stretch it's been.

South of PDX I would posit 2020-21 was a much bigger “dud” than 2019-20. 
 

2019-20 had a pretty terrible December/January, but cold fall and cold late winter, and lowland snow many places in mid-March. 

[SnowySeeker50]

39 degrees and sunny so doesn't look like we will see much of anything left by the end of the day. Though, sun on snow always looks beautiful.

[Seattle]

43 at SeaTac haha wow

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Ended up with just a bit of slush on the grass that was gone by the morning. Hopefully you did better over there. This has easily been the most frustrating stretch of the past decade years here, lots of snow to the north and south but virtually nothing here. The GFS shows this pattern continuing.

 

Been frustrating for sure. I am currently a tick better than the frustration level of 07/08 and currently about the same as 2016/17. 

[snow_wizard]

This is interesting.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

South of PDX I would posit 2020-21 was a much bigger “dud” than 2019-20. 
 

2019-20 had a pretty terrible December/January, but cold fall and cold late winter, and lowland snow many places in mid-March. 

Yeah, I mean neither was a very good regional winter, but both had their moments for some locations.

Both were easily better than 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m not home this weekend but reports from home said we had about 6.5” at Shawnigan Lake yesterday and last night

Seems like inland places north of here generally ended up with 5~10" from yesterday's system. It was a bit more elevation-based than the last one though and some places near sea level probably only ended up with 2~3".

[SouthHillFrosty]

Out here is gods country (Puyallup). There is barely a trace. The swamp lived up to its name. 

[Meatyorologist]

G'morning!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I mean neither was a very good regional winter, but both had their moments for some locations.

Both were easily better than 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16.

I personally would take 2015-2016 over any of those except 2020-2021. Record wet December and some wind, then lowland snow and even a subfreezing high in early January. Feb was a torch but the first half was not bad at all. There was also a cold wave on November I think, PDX had a low of 24

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is interesting.

Wow. Even if it stopped snowing entirely until January, assuming no melting, we would still be on the low end of what you'd expect by then.

[TT-SEA]

Live view from North Bend... east wind is too warm today but still a gorgeous day.

[FroYoBro]

The 18z HRRRRRRRRRRRR has a good slug of moisture moving right through here tomorrow. It just has it as rain.

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pattern wreset!!

EPS disagrees with the operational as far as next Saturday is concerned 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I mean neither was a very good regional winter, but both had their moments for some locations.

Both were easily better than 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16.

Jan 2013 was quite chilly in some places though.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

The 18z HRRRRRRRRRRRR has a good slug of moisture moving right through here tomorrow. It just has it as rain.

 

 

Which I wouldn't doubt based on how warm it is here and to the east of us today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Once my sig is updated it will show that I have had more snow already this season than any of the 3 winters 2013-2016. 
 

2012-13 was actually halfway decent here. Not a lot of snow, but late December-January was pretty cold, and we had snow cover pretty much the entire time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 2013 was quite chilly in some places though.

Most sub freezing highs for January at SLE since 1979. 

[BLI snowman]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, I mean neither was a very good regional winter, but both had their moments for some locations.

Both were easily better than 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16.

The majority of the 20th century featured some periodic truly horrid winters regionally that we haven't really come close to matching in recent years. 1925-26, 1930-31, 1933-34, 1939-40, 1940-41, 1943-44, 1952-53, 1957-58, 1982-83, 1986-87, and 1991-92 (with 2002-03 and 2014-15 as the lemons of the new century thus far). Of course we haven't matched the 20th century's highs either. But we're definitely due for another regional dud on that level.

Edited December 3, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Cold Snap]

Currently 40. Got down to 31 this morning. Picked up 2” of new snow last night to bring my total for the season up to 9.5”. That’s a pretty good total for December 3rd and I can’t think of another year I had this much snowfall up to this point. Not even 2006-07. Here’s a sunny snow pic!

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

EPS disagrees with the operational as far as next Saturday is concerned 

Nice.   Control run is improved as well.