bishbish777 Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 36F and foggy. Hope everyone is having a nice winter so far. 2 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Yeah the short term went from potentially interesting to being a huge turd, very quickly. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah the short term went from potentially interesting to being a huge turd, very quickly. Overnight GFS = L 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 hours ago, bishbish777 said: Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while Shows rain for me. Throw it out! lol 35.2* this morning, which is the low for the day so far. Any snow that was left is now totally gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: There it is, Dewey! Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Would’ve been nice to go back into potential lowland snow quickly after last week…but im fine with waiting a little longer. We’re still going to have atleast one more event this winter maybe even 2 if we’re lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. Weird that our triple dip strong Nina has resulted in equivalent weather to a baby solo nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 hours ago, bishbish777 said: Chills at the mouth of the Columbia for a while Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 No ridge December? Maybe. We will know by the time the ball drops in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Would’ve been nice to go back into potential lowland snow quickly after last week…but im fine with waiting a little longer. We’re still going to have atleast one more event this winter maybe even 2 if we’re lucky. Back in the good old days we would revert to snow chances after the 20th, and it wouldn't necessarily ruin our chances at a decent January. In fact it would be a positive harbinger. 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Weird that our triple dip strong Nina has resulted in equivalent weather to a baby solo nina Unless we have an absolute RAGING torch for six weeks starting around the 20th the comparisons to 2005 will end pretty quickly. My bigger takeaway from that analog map is those are mostly pretty cold patterns that were a mixture of big low level cold, or back door dry arctic fronts. If we do end up seeing arctic air in the next 2-3 weeks my guess is it would be more of a dry arctic front like 2009. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up. I’m in the blue! It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Judah had to like the 00z CFS. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 11/28-40/35 11/29-40/31 0.7” 11/30-41/29 1.2” 12/1-34/25 0.8” 12/2-38/24 1.2” 12/3-44/33 0.2” 12/4-39/33 1.1” 12/5-39/34 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Back in the good old days we would revert to snow chances after the 20th, and it wouldn't necessarily ruin our chances at a decent January. In fact it would be a positive harbinger. Yeah I’m feeling pretty good about something happening from December 20th-January 20th. Something good is coming we’ve just got to wait 2-4 weeks. Next time it won’t be so marginal if I had to guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up. Yep probably about a foot. I bet it ends up even farther north at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Funny how people see what they want to see on these lists. Given pattern progression so far 1996 is pretty much irrelevant. Seeing 2009 twice is interesting, the 2005 analog keeps popping up and can’t be discounted. 1978 another year with a lot of real and fake cold. 2009 and 1978 works for down in this region. 2005-2006 the cold air never made it this far south until March 2006 so completely opposite of this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It was a pretty solid 8 day run…but hopefully during the next round of winter weather we can manage some sub freezing highs. This event wasn’t particularly cold or in the top tier especially considering some events we’ve had in recent years…but still pretty solid. 11/28-40/35 11/29-40/31 0.7” 11/30-41/29 1.2” 12/1-34/25 0.8” 12/2-38/24 1.2” 12/3-44/33 0.2” 12/4-39/33 1.1” 12/5-39/34 That's a good stretch, especially all the minor snow falls. The last five weeks have seen fairly sustained cold anomalies, and it looks like more or less at the surface that will continue for the foreseeable future. Which kind of brings us to an interesting place. If we are sitting around December 20th looking back on two pretty dry cold weeks, at that point what are we staring down at, I think, and in some ways I hate to say this our best bet is to follow the 1984-85 or 78-79 route and hope we stay in a generally blocky/less active regime. There is a path to a cool and active regime, but I think if we move into an active/wet pattern there are some risks there, of this thing not turning out very favorably. From our overall winter standpoint a ridge building over/near us with some nice low level cold is probably the best case scenario, then we hope for something riding over the top and that block migrating westward like we saw in late November. But overall, we've seen a very extended period of cool weather, but if we look at the historical record, it doesn't necessarily have to end. There is precedent for things getting even better/colder as we head into the heart of winter. But as always its a fine line. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like the light rain/drizzle has finally ended out here as the incoming system starts to lift everything northward. The fog and low clouds have also lifted. It should be a pretty nice day. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 It feels inevitable no matter what. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Due to clearing skies and being just above the low stratus deck we actually ended up hitting 26 this morning. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Big shift north on the 12Z NAM for Saturday... @ShawniganLake would be buried with this set up. We've lost the NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 23 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty clear snow line on the ridge... and down to about 6 inches on the ground. Current pic... snow level is a little higher this morning than yesterday. Just measured again and we have about 4.5 inches left on the ground. 5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I’m in the blue! This looks like day of wet slushy rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 37 now and the low for the day. I'm not onboard with anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Raining and 37. .10” so far on the day. 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Current pic... snow level is a little higher this morning than yesterday. Just measured again and we have about 4.5 inches left on the ground. Ah, you used a different measuring tool today! 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Ah, you used a different measuring tool today! No... same tape measure in the same spots. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Raining and 37. .10” so far on the day. You are getting the gunk we put up with all week 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It feels inevitable no matter what. It's coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Sounds like a 30 car pileup just east of Ellensburg. I drove that stretch every week for work year round for about 6 years…It got downright freaky at times with the thick ice fog that happens so often over there. 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winterdog said: It's coming. Conflicting reports! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Looks like we got down to 25F. Right now is 28 and freezing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet: A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around 1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to the border. 33 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing) but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less. As we move forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Conflicting reports! And you forgot to charge your phone last night. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 12Z GFS also buries @ShawniganLake on Saturday. The Hood Canal also does very well which is almost a given with this trajectory and cold air damming. Another northward shift and it is now much warmer at the 925mb temp level compared to the runs yesterday. Sunday is basically dry on this run. 2 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Conflicting reports! And you forgot to charge your phone last night. I usually just charge it when I’m driving. Apple CarPlay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 Even the warmer 12Z ICON shows snow in the Hood Canal area and on Vancouver Island... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 7, 2022 Report Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Winterdog said: The Seattle NWS hasn't given up on the possibility of snow yet: A cool upper trough will cross the area on Friday for additional showers across the region. Snow levels will be lower, around 1000-1500 ft, and areas near the mountains may see a rain/snow mix with heavier showers. Snow levels will remain low Friday night as the next Pacific frontal system arrives, setting up another threat for lowland snow. Coolest temps and lowest snow levels will be areas near the Olympics and Cascades, and also in the North Interior. Most areas will likely see a rain/snow mix but there is a 10-30 percent probability of seeing greater than 1 inch in the interior (Seattle south) with 40-50 percent north of Seattle to the border. 33 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The system on Friday night continues to impact the region on Saturday as a lows spins offshore. A warm front will be lifting north through western WA and we will see snow levels in the interior rising through the day (from south to north). The slowest areas to turn over (from snow or a rain/snow mix to rain) will be the strait, North Interior, and Hood Canal area. This system will remain offshore and start to shift south on Sunday, pulling moisture away from western WA. There is still a threat for additional lowland snow as snow levels lower once again (and temps drop to near freezing) but overall moisture and snow amounts will be less. As we move forward, into early next week, we`re looking dry but cool weather with offshore flow. Lows will drop into the 20s again with highs around 40 both Monday and Tuesday. 33 In light of the latest model trends this was a stupid post. You could have at least waited until the morning AFD takes all the mention of lowland snow out of the discussion 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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