PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Hawksfan2008]

Control pretty close to the operational 

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 of the control 

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 10 of the control 

Better base of the block on the control

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at records back to 1889 it looks like November 2000, 1985, and 1955 were colder. 

4th coldest, 6th snowiest. Since 1889. 

 

Top ten!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That's a staggering amount of cold air shown on the euro at the end of the run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know I don't think we see a mammoth arctic blast before Christmas, but we certainly could see a modified airmass. Given our track record since December 1998, it's probably best to keep expectations within reason. I think it is reasonable to believe we see monthly means near or even colder than December 2017. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's got so bad for me worrying about summer heat waves. I don't mind a nice sunny warm day but this 90 plus suff is terrible for our forests around here. There is a reason you don't see hemlock,  cedar, and Douglas fire grow very well in hot climates. 

It’s downright sickening. Not to mention all the wildfires.

[Brennan]

2 hours ago, mtep said:

Acme is a great area as well, same with the properties off of Mosquito Lake Rd, I seem to find myself out there at least a couple times a month for a nice drive/shoot/snow sesh in the winter. The Van Zandt Dike seems to do really well with snow for barely hitting 2k' at the top. Just a little too far outside of town for my beggar/chooser self. I could talk about cool spots in Whatcom all day lol.  

Also never fails to blow my mind that I've never met another Mattias (spelled that way) in my life except for here on a regional weather forum lol. I was about 3-4 years too late to have known you guys at WWU, but it sounds like you had a good time from the stories. 

Oh man! Yeah it was pretty wild when we first met. i think we met up at Blodelle park with baseball gloves and played catch for a couple of hours. Had to have been around 2010 maybe? He then came to a lot of my parents Seahawks parties, and we've went to Mariners games together. Lotttta stories! We ice skated on north lake whatcom in January 2017!!!! Also across the entirety of Cain Lake in South Whatcom County that same month. 

The areas you mention are all great. I love Mosquito lake road for how quiet it is... there are several locations out there without cell reception, and nights are dark as can be. Love all those aspects. Just wish it wasn't 45-60 minute drive to town. I'd put up with it, but my other half would rather not. We're also likely on our way out of here for good so it's all dreams at this point. I'd live in Leavenworth or Wauconda or somewhere east of the cascades if I had the choice and money/jobs weren't an issue. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Close, but nope. Nice improvement Day 6-9, but of course block support didn't hold just like the Op, then everything slides east quickly. Maybe it will trend more favorable tonight 00z, or tomorrow. Cautiously pessimistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sitting at 43 now, and the rain has rolled back in. This is the warmest we have been this month and may be our best shot to hit 45. 50-55 for most of the WV today, but PDX may escape with a sub-50 high due to offshore flow. Either way a few days of positive anomalies for SLE and EUG are going to be more than offset by chilly nights later this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Close, but nope. Block support didn't hold just like the Op, then everything slides east quickly. Maybe it will trend more favorable tonight 00z, or tomorrow. Cautiously pessimistic.

We need to build your confidence!

[SouthHillFrosty]

One day, this will happen 

Edited December 10, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Then why have all four seasons warmed more or less uniformly for the region in recent decades?

The northwestward shifted 4CH is an artifact of expanding Hadley cells, which for obvious reasons also affects our climate in the other seasons.

Jim reading this post:

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s downright sickening. Not to mention all the wildfires.

This will be a nice wet spring for the Okanagan highlands.  The problem that area has had with low water value snowfall has caused a bunch of problems for wildlife, the forest and farmers. Luckily we avoided wildfires for the most part last summer but the year before as you know was scary. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Oh man! Yeah it was pretty wild when we first met. i think we met up at Blodelle park with baseball gloves and played catch for a couple of hours. Had to have been around 2010 maybe? He then came to a lot of my parents Seahawks parties, and we've went to Mariners games together. Lotttta stories! We ice skated on north lake whatcom in January 2017!!!! Also across the entirety of Cain Lake in South Whatcom County that same month. 

The areas you mention are all great. I love Mosquito lake road for how quiet it is... there are several locations out there without cell reception, and nights are dark as can be. Love all those aspects. Just wish it wasn't 45-60 minute drive to town. I'd put up with it, but my other half would rather not. We're also likely on our way out of here for good so it's all dreams at this point. I'd live in Leavenworth or Wauconda or somewhere east of the cascades if I had the choice and money/jobs weren't an issue. 

One day me and you will meet over there and I will show you around and show you my property.  

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Much better Euro run

 

 

Cross gradient polar flow!!

[MWG]

Mt Ashland opening day is today but they are having crazy weather lol

[Doinko]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

One day, this will happen 

How much sleet/ice on this run?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see all the Ski Resorts open now, looks like Hoodoo opened last weekend and has a 50" base as of today. Looks like Willamette Pass has a 36" base and is partially open. Anthony Lakes in NE Oregon is operating, but closed today due to high winds. 

[Cold Snap]

Been down in the Bay Area visiting family so haven’t really been on here much since yesterday morning. Looks like there’s been some drama over them models but this is all just part of the process. I honestly feel like no one knows what is going to happen after day 5 with how inconsistent the models are especially with the handling of cutoff lows. I feel like some one is going to score between now and Christmas. Surprises happen in these scenarios. By the way I was reading everything if I didn’t go look at the models myself I would have thought winter was cancelled until February! Anyways currently 58 and dumping rain where I’m at. Some of the roads are starting to look like rivers here such as in the pic below.

[Gradient Keeper]

Significant improvements for sure, need that block to become real meaty like in previous runs a few days ago. This just feels like so many other times with the models looking really good, but then we face fleeting block support and it's only cold north of a line from Everett to Pullman.

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

Rob is securing this bag for all of us and none of you have any idea 

[Meatyorologist]

I could really use a windstorm right now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

We need a update from lake Tahoe guy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We need a update from lake Tahoe guy.

He's trying to dig his way out the front door. Gonna be awhile. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I could really use a windstorm right now.

We really do not get windstorms  like we used to get.  

[WildrootParable]

At the risk of sounding like a complete weenie, is there anything sadder than waking up to 45 degrees, pouring rain, and slowly but surely melting snow? 

Growing up here you'd think I would be used to it, but it gets me every time. 

[Nov1985]

38 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Incoming!! 

EPS seems to suggest a brief cold shot near Dec 20, then another rapid retreat of the cool air towards the east. Opening the door for warm mean 850T's before xmas. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We really do not get windstorms  like we used to get.  

It's really sad, man. But you've got lots of trees on your properties so I could understand why it's less disappointing for you 

[TT-SEA]

It was a bad night for snow cover in North Bend.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

EPS seems to suggest a brief cold shot near Dec 20, then another rapid retreat of the cool air towards the east. Opening the door for warm mean 850T's before xmas. 

I'd give that scenario a 75% chance of verifying resulting in a big let down.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was a bad night for snow cover in North Bend.

Still gorgeous country

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

At the risk of sounding like a complete weenie, is there anything sadder than waking up to 45 degrees, pouring rain, and slowly but surely melting snow? 

Growing up here you'd think I would be used to it, but it gets me every time. 

My fiancee says it best, we live in the wrong part of the world! We both can't wait to relocate east of the cascades and it can't come soon enough,  we're both tired of the 33 degree rain and having 4-8 days of true winter weather. I don't mind the rain but I need to be somewhere that actually gets winter weather and sticks around. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's really sad, man. But you've got lots of trees on your properties so I could understand why it's less disappointing for you 

I still like a good windstorm but they cause a bunch of work.  Tbh this last bout of snow caused more tree damage than any windstorm has out here ever. 

[mtep]

Pretty cool juxtaposition of sunlight with very dark clouds to the north going on right now. 

[rsktkr]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know I don't think we see a mammoth arctic blast before Christmas, but we certainly could see a modified airmass. Given our track record since December 1998, it's probably best to keep expectations within reason. I think it is reasonable to believe we see monthly means near or even colder than December 2017. 

Why can't all comments/replies be this logic based? It would eliminate the emotional rollercoaster and make for a more enjoyable experience for all. Thanks for leading the way!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'd give that scenario a 75% chance of verifying resulting in a big let down.

Something big is coming dude. I wouldn't be surprised to get a top 5 airmass in this area before about the 5th of January.  Everything is on the table just waiting to align. 

[rsktkr]

15 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

At the risk of sounding like a complete weenie, is there anything sadder than waking up to 45 degrees, pouring rain, and slowly but surely melting snow? 

Growing up here you'd think I would be used to it, but it gets me every time. 

I used to have that but someone taught me how to see the beauty in all of nature and now I enjoy it all. I still have my preferences of course but I appreciate so much more about the weather and all the changes that come with it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My fiancee says it best, we live in the wrong part of the world! We both can't wait to relocate east of the cascades and it can't come soon enough,  we're both tired of the 33 degree rain and having 4-8 days of true winter weather. I don't mind the rain but I need to be somewhere that actually gets winter weather and sticks around. 

Places like San Francisco and Eureka get crappy summer weather and crappy winter weather and sometimes it can actually feel warmer in San Francisco in February than July. Nevertheless some people consider it to be the ideal climate.