PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like a great event in the works for western Washington.

[Gradient Keeper]

Does this mean a Night Shift 6z GFS model ride is in order? I would be shocked if I'm awake.

[snow_wizard]

Highs mid to upper 20s next Monday on the mean.  Wowzers!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like a great event in the works for western Washington.

And very possibly you.

[Doinko]

What does the Euro meteogram look like for PDX?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What does the Euro meteogram look like for PDX?

 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Possibly a stupid question, but I don't know so I'm asking. There's a definite westward trend with the cold air. Is it possible that there's too much of a westward trend with future outputs so that we miss out?

Pretty unlikely.

This is a retrograding strong ridge. An eastward shift would be far more likely than too much energy diving offshore.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z UKMET going with a December 2008 pattern. Day 4-6

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Wow, that's impressively cold

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Possibly a stupid question, but I don't know so I'm asking. There's a definite westward trend with the cold air. Is it possible that there's too much of a westward trend with future outputs so that we miss out?

There is always a possibility and when that happens we usually see cyclogenesis off the coast and things moderate pretty quickly.   This doesn’t really have that feel to it yet, I don’t think.  If this fails I think it’s more likely that the cold will probably not dig far enough to the SW and then slide off to the east. 

[RCola]

The ensembles look good for a few days of fun, but personally, I see this as another transitory, though intense warning shot with some snow potential if a low is in the right place. Without a proper SE ridge, the cold will slide to the East Coast for Xmas and New Years. I don't feel bad giving it to them, however. The Mid-Atlantic is especially way overdue for holiday snow, more so than even some parts of the PNW.

 

I think the real fun waits until January. We'll see how it goes though!

[Hawksfan2008]

 

[Nov1985]

Me likes the trend.

 

[Skagit Weather]

52 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Swinomish market. Cheapest out here is still like 4.20

You found it! Not too far from where I am!

In weather news, looks like I hit 50F yesterday so I won't quite score a sub-50 month, but I wouldn't complain if we stay significantly below it for the rest of the month. 44/41 day up here and 0.63" of rain on the month so still quite dry.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

46 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not complaining, but let's get that ridge to trend a bit "meatier" for more support Day 8+ ....

I'll try my best

[SnowPlz]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

[Nov1985]

Ensembles, mean, control seem to paint deep upper level cold from Saturday night through Tuesday. If the modified arctic front hits right, we could see a quick and windy inch of snow Sunday morning. Dew points are absurdly low after the front. Hoping we get an upper level low stalling around the Olympic peninsula. 

 

[Nov1985]

Interesting, ensembles actually warmer with this run for around xmas. 

[Cloud]

And down we go! Pretty darn good signal for being a week out. Almost no warm members. 

[Nov1985]

There's a chance.

[Cold Snap]

Still a decent amount of cold members out in the long range. Mid range looks improved 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This might be getting close to the category of insulting to some.

Lots of overcompensation in here tonight.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve never been much for getting drunk/high during major weather events. Am I weird?

Blizzards/major wx episodes are one of the few times I’m actually sober. No high can match that.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

 

that's some D**n serious cold... lead the way o mighty lord and savior king EURO.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

00Z

 

12Z

 

Could shift west again.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z ICON seems to be making a move towards the ECMWF/EPS.

[Gradient Keeper]

I worked out, then took a shower, so I am awake!

Night Shift 6z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

00z ECMWF comparison

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I worked out, then took a shower, so I am awake!

Night Shift 6z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend)

00z ECMWF comparison

went for a nice run around the neighborhood?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

went for a nice run around the neighborhood?

Not where I live. Not safe. We just had some crazy incident around 6:45 PM last evening multiple people shot, at least 32 police cars on the scene, swat, fire engines, multiple ambulances, and we were in a lock down. The police are still on the scene right now I can see the lights flashing looking out my back window. Not real clear on the details, but it had to be something major high priority for that kind of response.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pivotal is either having server problems again updating, or it is stuck at HR 42.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Pivotal is either having server problems again updating, or it is stuck at HR 42.

Tidbits as well.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not where I live. Not safe. We just had some crazy incident around 6:45 PM last evening multiple people shot, at least 32 police cars on the scene, swat, fire engines, multiple ambulances, and we were in a lock down. The police are still on the scene right now I can see the lights flashing looking out my back window. Not real clear on the details, but it had to be something major high priority for that kind of response.

yeah sounds like sh*t got real. sorry to hear that

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WB stuck at hr 27 so something is weird with the GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

It is very unusually rare to see ~2-5% Tornado Probabilities in December for western Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle, and yet we do have that for today. Crazy.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

WB stuck at hr 27 so something is weird with the GFS.

Maybe they are installing the REAL upgrade update.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Maybe they are installing the REAL upgrade update.

The ultra secret upgrade.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think if I'm reading this correctly the 6z GFS Data Dump/Prep and other events are on-time and running. I dunno.

https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm..... Now we have a delay or problem.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Hmmm..... Now we have a delay or problem.

Yup still stuck at hr 27 oh boy...