Requiem Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 New thread!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Come on winter!!! Ugh, why does my epileptic episodes happen right noww?! Dammitt. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Having our hot water heater removed and replaced, so haven't been available. I just got a look at 12z runs. Not bad. Good improvements. I was perhaps most surprised how much colder the GFS Ensembles are. Excellent potential ahead for true arctic air, snow storms, ice, and big league east winds maybe even downslope storms. Do I pull the trigger on Colder Runs Ahead? or even MBG? I'm tempted. A long ways to go, but the pattern develops at just Day 3.5 and the block is in optimal position at Day 5. That's not too far down the road. Let's keep this going and move timing ahead. 18z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cascadia_Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. 12 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 I hate how much we have to hedge our excitement around here. There are so many great weather minds in the PNW but everyone is understandably scared to go all in. I suppose that’s part of what makes it so special when it happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 12z EPS spaghetti for the next 7 days.. you can count the -5 to 0C members with one hand! Very cold signal. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. It is getting old, I also enjoy it when you people down there get in on the fun. Makes the entire event much more enjoyable imo. A big part of the event is this forum and when the entire area is in on the fun it's just a good time and a bunch of fun. 7 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. 4 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: It is getting old, I also enjoy it when you people down there get in on the fun. Makes the entire event much more enjoyable imo. A big part of the event is this forum and when the entire area is in on the fun it's just a good time and a bunch of fun. Yup. It’s funny that you responded since this post was originally supposed to be a response to yours about an airmass making it down to the Willamette valley on the last thread. 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. What happened in November 2010 down there? We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. Exactly. For us, we have to assume that any arctic air will stall out north of us regardless of what is modeled based on recent experience. Fake cold through the gorge would likely be colder and more difficult to scour out before at least an overrunning event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Finally really looking at 12z GFS lol not even possible in these parts. multiple days with -30+ lows? lol even if its 50% correct this is probably going to be the coldest weather in a decade+ on the east side. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What happened in November 2010 down there? It got impressively cold for a few days but not much in the way of snow. That was the last time one of the more northern centric blasts actually made a dent in temps down here rather than just limping in though. We had a few highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens with no gorge influence. 5 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 deep freeze > torch-y is pretty on brand for Clown GFS as well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What happened in November 2010 down there? 30/18 day at the coldest with a marginal amount of wet snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Working again? Gotta imagine the site is seeing some trfffic 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, administrator said: Kicking off a new thread. Will merge into the older one if we need a Part III or if we hit January. lol if we hit January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Better ensemble improvement. Still have a bit of work to do 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 A few things. In the past when arctic air is in place it takes a few systems to scour out especially in PDX metro typically unless a system dives east through BC killing off the Columbia Basin high. Another thing, many times in the past once we're into the teeth of an arctic blast( assuming we have one ) the cold air is often more prolonged than modeled. If we can keep those east winds going PDX will not scour out as modeled due to a continued low level blast. I get a sense that there is an above average chance of arctic air. ~75% of 850s -10c or colder PDX. ~25% -15c or colder. That's my thinking right now. 00z ECMWF in 8 hours 55 minutes 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, Cloud said: 12z EPS spaghetti for the next 7 days.. you can count the -5 to 0C members with one hand! Very cold signal. You don't see something like that too often. A thing of beauty and very encouraging for cold and snow fans. Gonna be an interesting ride up to Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: A few things. In the past when arctic air is in place it takes a few systems to scour out especially in PDX metro typically unless a system dives east through BC killing off the Columbia Basin high. Another thing, many times in the past once we're into the teeth of an arctic blast( assuming we have one ) the cold air is often more prolonged than modeled. If we can keep those east winds going PDX will not scour out as modeled due to a continued low level blast. I get a sense that there is an above average chance of arctic air. ~75% of 850s -10c or colder PDX. ~25% -15c or colder. That's my thinking right now. 00z ECMWF in 8 hours 55 minutes I could see a January 2004 type thing if that cold air becomes entrenched enough. That one just went on and on-- I can't imagine it lasting as long as that event. 3 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: What happened in November 2010 down there? My location not much just incredibly cold. A few snow showers, but nothing accumulated. I believe there was thundersnow around Troutdale. The highlight was back to back mornings of 12 degrees and high temps around 30 with clear skies and no east wind. No backdoor cold air support. Such an unusual true northerly blast that one was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Scaled some things up then forgot to start nginx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Jim m ight need oxygen tonight. 2 1 5 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 So did anyone see that 12z CFS?! 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: So did anyone see that 12z CFS?! No. Was it good? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Requiem said: I could see a January 2004 type thing if that cold air becomes entrenched enough. That one just went on and on-- I can't imagine it lasting as long as that event. January 2004 was exceptional, and a day before that event it also wasn't looking to persist as long. They rarely if ever do until we're into the infancy stages of it, and then the models play catch up with the low level cold/CAA it seems. If we can somehow manage a snow covered Columbia Basin, Gorge that would pay off tremendously. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 November 2010 was decent. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, Requiem said: I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. It’s still very early in the game. Most of my posts this morning are reacting to the shift between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro, just based on how a lot of our brushes with prominent, large scale cold airmasses have gone lately. 5 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: It got impressively cold for a few days but not much in the way of snow. That was the last time one of the more northern centric blasts actually made a dent in temps down here rather than just limping in though. We had a few highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens with no gorge influence. I would say February 2011 as well, which didn't have a huge gorge component but still delivered impressive CAA here. But yeah, been over 11 years either way. The December 2021 /January 2020/ early February 2019 triumvirate obviously favored Fraser River advection and all were pretty underwhelming in delivering impressive temps down here, to varying extents. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: It’s still very early in the game. Most of my posts this morning are reacting to the shift between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro, just based on how a lot of our brushes with prominent, large scale cold airmasses have gone lately. I feel you Jesse. Counting on cold air masses to advect in from the north or northwest hasn’t worked well for surface based cold south of Olympia. 4 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 On the other hand this trajectory is generally really good for snow here… I would rather have cold. 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end. I'd be okay with 3-4" up here with cold temperatures for an extended period while the Portland area and places further south score 10"+ considering how lopsided it's been recently. However, I wasn't thrilled with the models showing bone-dry cold and no snow on the ground for a week or more. Of course, personally I would be thrilled with a Dec '21 repeat, but I wouldn't mind spreading the wealth as well. 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 The cold makes all the difference. 2-3 inches regional snowfall with bitter temps would be amazing. 6 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Gfs should have Astoria around 30 below by Monday. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JW8 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Famous last words... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Weeklies just came in and looks like it wants to warm us up around new years before dunking us in the freezer once more second half of january 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 12, 2022 Report Share Posted December 12, 2022 Joe almost seems annoyed every time there's an Arctic airmass. 5 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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