PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Phishy Wx]

ain't skeered (yet)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So it's the 2nd best run of the last 6 and probably even the last 10 or more, and it's devastating?

Need to see the spaghetti charts too that’s probably what Andrews referring to. From that map though doesn’t look like too much of a step back. 

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Need to see the spaghetti charts too that’s probably what Andrews referring to. From that map though doesn’t look like too much of a step back. 

I don't even think it matters. GFS and GEFS were only onboard for one run  (12Z IIRC) while we're on day 3 for EPS showing high probability of a cold front from the north for a timeframe that isn't very far out. 

[TT-SEA]

18Z EPS (which goes through 144 hours) should be done running by around 5:15 or 5:30.    And the 18Z GFS will be forgotten.  

[Nov1985]

GEFS Tue 10 pm past 6 runs 850T

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re losing the Andrew.

Not yet 

[Dave]

For the love of God, can we get TWL a subfreezing high? That isn't asking too much.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS (which goes through 144 hours) should be done running by around 5:15 or 5:30.    And the 18Z GFS will be forgotten.  

Chances are it’ll go back to good all day tomorrow…then Wednesday there’s a big pullback and then back to Arctic blast by Thursday morning. The typical rollercoaster. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

For the love of God, can we get TWL a subfreezing high? That isn't asking too much.

Well at least there's been some snow. But this is a historically futile stretch for Arctic airmasses into the Willamette Valley.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Chances are it’ll go back to good all day tomorrow…then Wednesday there’s a big pullback and then back to Arctic blast by Thursday morning. The typical rollercoaster. 

Sad but true.  The GFS has been so inconsistent, I'll put more faith in Judahs hamster powered machine than this yo-yo

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

For the love of God, can we get TWL a subfreezing high? That isn't asking too much.

*god proceeds to give TWL 7 33 degree highs in a row next week while EUG is in the upper 20s*

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Chances are it’ll go back to good all day tomorrow…then Wednesday there’s a big pullback and then back to Arctic blast by Thursday morning. The typical rollercoaster. 

This all would be boring with an empty forum if we didn't get the roller coaster ride with each of these. I however refuse to get my thrills from GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

Based on the ECMWF... its really too bad the Seahawks game is on Thursday night in boring dry weather and not on Sunday in a snowstorm.   That would be so fun to watch.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Based on the ECMWF... its really too bad the Seahawks game is on Thursday night in boring dry weather and not on Sunday in a snowstorm.   That would be so fun to watch.

Unless you’re a 49ers fan it might be the only fun thing about the game. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

WUnless you’re a 49ers fan it might be the only fun thing about the game. 

Seahawks would have a better chance in a snowstorm!

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the ECMWF... its really too bad the Seahawks game is on Thursday night in boring dry weather and not on Sunday in a snowstorm.   That would be so fun to watch.

I'm pretty sure NOTHING can make that game fun to watch. Yesterday was pain.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the ECMWF... its really too bad the Seahawks game is on Thursday night in boring dry weather and not on Sunday in a snowstorm.   That would be so fun to watch.

Too quick for a turnaround.  At least the Hawks don't have to travel.  I'm uh scared.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Seahawks would have a better chance in a snowstorm!

They lost to the bears in the last snow game

[TacomaWx]

Nws throwing out a couple hints…

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am still not onboard 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seahawks would have a better chance in a snowstorm!

I've only watched one football game in my entire life lol. But my wife was a huge fan and knew more about The game than most men. It was funny watching her debate and be right lol.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am still not onboard 

If all the models are onboard by Wednesday night-Thursday night time frame it’ll probably be time to get on the bandwagon.

[Winterdog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I am still not onboard 

check your inbox pls

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

If all the models are onboard by Wednesday night-Thursday night time frame it’ll probably be time to get on the bandwagon.

Yea I agree. I’ll wait until Thursday to get more salt or more rugs 

[Cold Snap]

Don’t know what happened with the forum but couldn’t get it to load for like 2 hours. Probably overload from too much excitement from the models!

[Dave]

Someone is gonna get the goods. How sweet would it be if everyone got at least a couple of inches and subfreezing temps? We are way overdue for that to happen. With all the extreme anomalies that occurred recently in the PNW, it might as well be now.

[fubario]

8 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I'm pretty sure NOTHING can make that game fun to watch. Yesterday was pain.

yes, ..yes there is....it's called "gambling".

[Jbolin]

When does the HYPE train go off the rails? 

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

When does the HYPE train go off the rails? 

Pretty sure December is still a ratings month for old school radio and TV media formats. So I'm sure they are drawing up the graphics today!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

41 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

it's the 18z.

Not only that, the 18Z Goofus.

[MWG]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, Dave said:

For the love of God, can we get TWL a subfreezing high? That isn't asking too much.

It will happen during a foggy inversion on a day when SEA and YVR both easily crack the 40°F mark, so TWL will say it’s fake cold and does not count.

[Nov1985]

This season I have enjoyed watching Russel Wilson suffer more than watching the Seahawks succeed. I may need to seek counseling. 

[Deweydog]

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, MWG said:

A.k.a (Inside Slider) 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It will happen during a foggy inversion on a day when SEA and YVR both easily crack the 40°F mark, so TWL will say it’s fake cold and does not count.

I was just thinking about that. In the past, we'd get a freezing fog day with something like a 32/30 spread every once in a while. We can't even seem to pull that off these days, not that those were enjoyable anyway. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

This season I have enjoyed watching Russel Wilson suffer more than watching the Seahawks succeed. I may need to seek counseling. 

Is a group session possible?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

CFS indicates a serious flirtation with arctic air next week, but full consummation waits until about January 11th. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

I was just thinking about that. In the past, we'd get a freezing fog day with something like a 32/30 spread every once in a while. We can't even seem to pull that off these days, not that those were enjoyable anyway. 

Eugene had 4 sub-freezing highs in January 2013. 

[Cloud]

As it currently stands, it does seem like this is a quick hit and go.. lasting 3-4 days. Full 12z EPS and 18z GEFS showing moderation around Christmas time. Regardless, treat this timeframe as a grain of salt... too far out.