PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z EPS looks remarkably similar with colder air in BC. Not really sweating anything yet; let alone confiding hope in any cold snap.

If there were one to occur, I'd really hate for it to have a N/S gradient, but that looks much more likely than not.

The real question is how strong of a N/S gradient, really 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Requiem said:

The real question is how strong of a N/S gradient, really 

I think we know. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t trust her. Her “observations” involve a quick glance. No effort to stare at a street light from multiple angles for minutes at a time.

So you never tought her to block the light with your hand just right to see the flake?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

The real question is how strong of a N/S gradient, really 

I hope it comes as southward and as hard as Tiger.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

The real question is how strong of a N/S gradient, really 

As someone who has moved around a fair bit, I can confirm that N/S gradients tend to suck a whole lot less if you live on the N end of them.

The one exception is if they come with too strong a push of cold air. Then it is cold and dry and the winter fun happens to the south.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hope it comes as southward and as hard as Tiger.

I think the undercutting and overrunning potential with this one is real though (not sure it benefits anyone south of Salem, though). It's way too early to really make any solid predictions but what are your thoughts as far as the progression of this thing?

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Requiem said:

I think the undercutting and overrunning potential with this one is real though (not sure it benefits anyone south of Salem, though). It's way too early to really make any solid predictions but what are your thoughts as far as the progression of this thing?

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

[Meatyorologist]

It was fun being a moderator for you all, but my one god will be with me very shortly.

[Terreboner]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So you never tought her to block the light with your hand just right to see the flake?

Even though I'm all for improvements of weather modeling and forecasting in general, they have taken some of this mystery fun out of our lives.  I remember when I was 5 years old and our house had an almost perfect view of the horizon to the SW.  The only way we could tell if anything was going to happen is by the analog thermometer on the barn and clouds encroaching on that horizon.

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

You'll likely end up being right, but it's worth noting that January 2020 had shaky model support from the get-go as far as any model but the GFS was concerned. It's nice having a consistent EURO ensemble not that far out. I *could* see a diet February 2021, but we'll see. 

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So you never tought her to block the light with your hand just right to see the flake?

If the streetlight fails I will resort to a powerful flashlight with narrow beam and point it straight up!  The only problem here is I get distracted seeing my breath in the light as it makes that eerie alien effect. I’m usually stuck in a trance at that point as that’s pretty cool in itself ‍

Truth…lol! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, MWG said:

You need to tell us what office this is from.  

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I hope it comes as southward and as hard as Tiger.

I really want him to score.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

I'm hoping the runs in the next few days push that arctic air farther south. I'm not liking the N/S gradient runs are showing

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

Why?  This looks highly likely to go further south than that.  The EPS is rock solid on that, and it's not that far out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I really want him to score.

I miss Arctic events. It's hard for me to believe that I still am yet to experience one since finding this forum in Oct 2017.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I'm hoping the runs in the next few days push that arctic air farther south. I'm not liking the N/S gradient runs are showing

Little doubt the N/S gradient will be there.  I think it will make it to NW OR though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I miss Arctic events. It's hard for me to believe that I still am yet to experience one since finding this forum in Oct 2017.

No doubt there is nothing like it.  The sting of that cold continental air.

[Gummy]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

Did N. Seattle even get snow in Jan 2020? I don't recall anything.

[Blizzard777]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I really want him to score.

Would be nice for a true arctic front to nail us all so those who haven’t experienced this joy get a chance.  Such a cool fun phenomenon!!! 

[Cold Snap]

Hopefully people down in Oregon can score as well. Especially since some models are showing a region wide event. Hopefully we can get one out of this and no one will be left out of sending snow pics!

[RentonHill]

We were so close to greatness

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Did N. Seattle even get snow in Jan 2020? I don't recall anything.

We did, with a high a hair above freezing. We were right on the border of the Arctic air... Even Everett just to the north at sea level had a couple highs in the upper 20s with a few inches of snow.

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

We were so close to greatness

Nice! Score on my Bday!  C’MON JANUARY !!! 

[SnowPlz]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We were so close to greatness

“How much you wanna bet I could have built a ten foot snowman?” 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We were so close to greatness

A few runs before that too

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Little doubt the N/S gradient will be there.  I think it will make it to NW OR though.

I'd much rather something like the 00z Euro happen. Cold east wind and a 23/17 day.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

A few runs before that too

Eh the EURO was on board for January 2020 only very briefly before dropping it. GFS surface temps have always been outlandish-- I'm not really sure we were ever that close to greatness without the EPS on board.

[Doinko]

Just now, Requiem said:

Eh the EURO was on board for January 2020 only very briefly before dropping it. GFS surface temps have always been outlandish-- I'm not really sure we were ever that close to greatness without the EPS on board.

Yeah, it's fun to look at these past runs though.

Maybe we can get really lucky and have some systems landfall around Cape Blanco for some snow for the entire Willamette Valley

[Guest administrator]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

Get in the fucking trebuchet. 

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We did, with a high a hair above freezing. We were right on the border of the Arctic air... Even Everett just to the north at sea level had a couple highs in the upper 20s with a few inches of snow.

Jan 2020 wasn’t so kind to us. We had 1.5” total during 2 snow events that week and it had some fun moments…but our coldest day was 36/28 and it was overall a bummer compared to just 50 miles north. 

[Guest administrator]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We were so close to greatness

For a moment I thought you were referencing the current forecast.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

A few runs before that too

7-8 days out on the GFS might as well be the CFS two months from now.

[Kolk1604]

19 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We were so close to greatness

Aren't we always this close to greatness with the GFS?

Anyway if I remember right that was a GFS only event. The Euro was never on board. It's not like now when the Euro/EPS have been consistent run to run 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Honest feeling is a Jan 2020 redux

Haha so I am not alone. I see that as a distinct possibility. I think a best case scenario is something like last December that is slightly colder down here, but shorter in duration. 

[MWG]

35 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

You need to tell us what office this is from.  

It's from the Medford NWS

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Haha so I am not alone. I see that as a distinct possibility. I think a best case scenario is something like last December that is slightly colder down here, but shorter in duration. 

Best case scenario is probably way better than that given how volatile the whole thing is. Remember that a realistic pattern progression could be a weak ridge advancing overhead our sfc Arctic high and keeping us cold for several more days on end.

[MossMan]

Someone say January 2020? Works for me! 

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Best case scenario is probably way better than that given how volatile the whole thing is. Remember that a realistic pattern progression could be a weak ridge advancing overhead our sfc Arctic high and keeping us cold for several more days on end.

I want that random EPS member from yesterday's 00z run with -25C 850mb temps to verify instead.

[Dave]

Looks like some freezing fog could be on the table tonight.