PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Requiem]

[Cloud]

New thread!!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Come on winter!!!

Ugh, why does my epileptic episodes happen right noww?!

Dammitt.

[Gradient Keeper]

Having our hot water heater removed and replaced, so haven't been available. I just got a look at 12z runs. Not bad. Good improvements. I was perhaps most surprised how much colder the GFS Ensembles are. Excellent potential ahead for true arctic air, snow storms, ice, and big league east winds maybe even downslope storms. Do I pull the trigger on Colder Runs Ahead? or even MBG? I'm tempted. A long ways to go, but the pattern develops at just Day 3.5 and the block is in optimal position at Day 5. That's not too far down the road. Let's keep this going and move timing ahead.

18z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes

[Cascadia_Wx]

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

[Hawksfan2008]

I hate how much we have to hedge our excitement around here. There are so many great weather minds in the PNW but everyone is understandably scared to go all in. I suppose that’s part of what makes it so special when it happens! 

[Cloud]

12z EPS spaghetti for the next 7 days.. you can count the -5 to 0C members with one hand! Very cold signal. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

It is getting old, I also enjoy it when you people down there get in on the fun. Makes the entire event much more enjoyable imo. A big part of the event is this forum and when the entire area is in on the fun it's just a good time and a bunch of fun. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is getting old, I also enjoy it when you people down there get in on the fun. Makes the entire event much more enjoyable imo. A big part of the event is this forum and when the entire area is in on the fun it's just a good time and a bunch of fun. 

Yup. It’s funny that you responded since this post was originally supposed to be a response to yours about an airmass making it down to the Willamette valley on the last thread.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

What happened in November 2010 down there? 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

Exactly. For us, we have to assume that any arctic air will stall out north of us regardless of what is modeled based on recent experience. Fake cold through the gorge would likely be colder and more difficult to scour out before at least an overrunning event. 

[Phishy Wx]

Finally really looking at 12z GFS lol

not even possible in these parts. multiple days with -30+ lows?  lol

even if its 50% correct this is probably going to be the coldest weather in a decade+ on the east side.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened in November 2010 down there? 

It got impressively cold for a few days but not much in the way of snow. That was the last time one of the more northern centric blasts actually made a dent in temps down here rather than just limping in though. We had a few highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens with no gorge influence.

[Phishy Wx]

deep freeze > torch-y is pretty on brand for Clown GFS as well lol

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened in November 2010 down there? 

30/18 day at the coldest with a marginal amount of wet snow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Working again? Gotta imagine the site is seeing some trfffic

[Snownerd3000]

33 minutes ago, administrator said:

Kicking off a new thread. Will merge into the older one if we need a Part III or if we hit January. 

lol if we hit January

[SouthHillFrosty]

Better ensemble improvement. Still have a bit of work to do 

[Gradient Keeper]

A few things. In the past when arctic air is in place it takes a few systems to scour out especially in PDX metro typically unless a system dives east through BC killing off the Columbia Basin high. Another thing, many times in the past once we're into the teeth of an arctic blast( assuming we have one ) the cold air is often more prolonged than modeled. If we can keep those east winds going PDX will not scour out as modeled due to a continued low level blast. I get a sense that there is an above average chance of arctic air. ~75% of 850s -10c or colder PDX. ~25% -15c or colder. That's my thinking right now.

 

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 55 minutes

[The Cats Meow]

31 minutes ago, Cloud said:

12z EPS spaghetti for the next 7 days.. you can count the -5 to 0C members with one hand! Very cold signal. 

You don't see something like that too often.  A thing of beauty and very encouraging for cold and snow fans.

Gonna be an interesting ride up to Christmas.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A few things. In the past when arctic air is in place it takes a few systems to scour out especially in PDX metro typically unless a system dives east through BC killing off the Columbia Basin high. Another thing, many times in the past once we're into the teeth of an arctic blast( assuming we have one ) the cold air is often more prolonged than modeled. If we can keep those east winds going PDX will not scour out as modeled due to a continued low level blast. I get a sense that there is an above average chance of arctic air. ~75% of 850s -10c or colder PDX. ~25% -15c or colder. That's my thinking right now.

 

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 55 minutes

I could see a January 2004 type thing if that cold air becomes entrenched enough. That one just went on and on-- I can't imagine it lasting as long as that event. 

[Gradient Keeper]

28 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What happened in November 2010 down there? 

My location not much just incredibly cold. A few snow showers, but nothing accumulated. I believe there was thundersnow around Troutdale. The highlight was back to back mornings of 12 degrees and high temps around 30 with clear skies and no east wind. No backdoor cold air support. Such an unusual true northerly blast that one was.

[Guest administrator]

Scaled some things up then forgot to start nginx.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim m ight need oxygen tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So did anyone see that 12z CFS?!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So did anyone see that 12z CFS?!

No. Was it good?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

I could see a January 2004 type thing if that cold air becomes entrenched enough. That one just went on and on-- I can't imagine it lasting as long as that event. 

January 2004 was exceptional, and a day before that event it also wasn't looking to persist as long. They rarely if ever do until we're into the infancy stages of it, and then the models play catch up with the low level cold/CAA it seems. If we can somehow manage a snow covered Columbia Basin, Gorge that would pay off tremendously.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 2010 was decent. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

31 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I do think this looks a bit more widespread than December 2021-- and more conducive at this point to some sort of overrunning event geared more towards us. 

It’s still very early in the game. Most of my posts this morning are reacting to the shift between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro, just based on how a lot of our brushes with prominent, large scale cold airmasses have gone lately.

[BLI snowman]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It got impressively cold for a few days but not much in the way of snow. That was the last time one of the more northern centric blasts actually made a dent in temps down here rather than just limping in though. We had a few highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens with no gorge influence.

I would say February 2011 as well, which didn't have a huge gorge component but still delivered impressive CAA here. But yeah, been over 11 years either way.

The December 2021 /January 2020/ early February 2019 triumvirate obviously favored Fraser River advection and all were pretty underwhelming in delivering impressive temps down here, to varying extents. 

[High Desert Mat?]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s still very early in the game. Most of my posts this morning are reacting to the shift between the 00z Euro and 12z Euro, just based on how a lot of our brushes with prominent, large scale cold airmasses have gone lately.

I feel you Jesse. Counting on cold air masses to advect in from the north or northwest hasn’t worked well for surface based cold south of Olympia. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the other hand this trajectory is generally really good for snow here… I would rather have cold. 

[Skagit Weather]

41 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I know they can give the northern areas a lot of snow but all the big airmasses lately being border huggers is getting kind of old. I would honestly take a long period of low level cold like was being advertised last week over another December 2021 redux. Good chance the former would end up a lot colder down here and probably have a better chance of snow at the tail end.

I'd be okay with 3-4" up here with cold temperatures for an extended period while the Portland area and places further south score 10"+ considering how lopsided it's been recently. However, I wasn't thrilled with the models showing bone-dry cold and no snow on the ground for a week or more. Of course, personally I would be thrilled with a Dec '21 repeat, but I wouldn't mind spreading the wealth as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The cold makes all the difference. 2-3 inches regional snowfall with bitter temps would be amazing. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs should have Astoria around 30 below by Monday.

[JW8]

Famous last words...

[Snownerd3000]

Weeklies just came in and looks like it wants to warm us up around new years before dunking us in the freezer once more second half of january

[Meatyorologist]

Joe almost seems annoyed every time there's an Arctic airmass.