PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While PDX has a late afternoon heat spike, we've dropped 5 degrees off our high, down to 33. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I don't see any changes. 

Thanks. I'm surprised how crazy the Euro's been and consistent

[WeatherGeek2022]

whenever the euro indicates something...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It seems like the EURO gets rid of that little cut off enough that it doesn't get sucked into the base of the approaching trough. That seems like part of the initial fly in the ointment, so to speak, on the GFS. 

[Nov1985]

Tad slower, the pullback trend continues a bit here. Can't do hour 90 since the hours don't align in Tidbits. Earlier is almost always a good sign for speed and strength. e.g. yesterday's 12z.

 

[Blizzard777]

Lol, friend in Salt Lake just let me know it’s been snowing all day….thanks Sue Hill

Yesterday, Prescott and Soldotna AL. They all know I possess the sickness! 

 

[RCola]

11 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December has torched pretty hard the past decade in a lot of the east

Yep, it's just expected Christmas temperatures will approach 70F for anyone south of I81 in PA. I'm sure Phil could attest to this as well.

If we have a January curse, the East Coast most definitely has a December curse. I'd personally love for both to be lifted this winter, even if it means the PNW needs to sacrifice a snowy holiday season. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Tad slower, the pullback trend continues a bit here. Can't do hour 90 since the hours don't align in Tidbits. Earlier is almost always a good sign for speed and strength. e.g. yesterday's 12z.

 

I mean originally it was Monday that was cold and then it was Saturday and now Sunday. 

Every time the arctic air was delayed, the run got colder. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My money is on the Euro being closer to the truth. Because it typically is.

 

1 hour ago, Jginmartini said:

I’m going to agree for 10 points 

My trust is also in the King 

I’m also on Team EURO. Even the lower resolution models like the CFS are driving all the Arctic air east of us. The EURO operational runs which are run at the highest resolution are picking up on something that the other models aren’t at the moment. When it’s all said and done the final outcome will be closer to what the EURO op runs have been showing IMO. Critical runs ahead tonight. Get your ready!

[Snownerd3000]

I wonder if that delay includes delaying a warm-up I would love to see us stretch this cold into Christmas

[bainbridgekid]

3 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

14 years ago today was the start of something truly special!

It gets forgotten, but the 12th was a very disappointing day with I believe a Winter Storm Warning for Seattle but the low went North and gave most of us just rain. Imagine how epic that two week period would have been if it had started with yet another widespread snowstorm.

[SnowPlz]

Clearly the Euro is correct because that’s the outcome I’m hoping for 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It gets forgotten, but the 12th was a very disappointing day with I believe a Winter Storm Warming for Seattle but the low went North and gave most of us just rain. Imagine how epic that two week period would have been if it had started with yet another widespread snowstorm.

I forgot that 2008 kickoff was delayed. Massive forum meltdowns!! 

[Phishy Wx]

Spokane NWS thoughts

Much colder temperatures are the bigger message of this period,
with the potential for highs in the teens and lows in the single
digits, above and below zero. How cold it gets at night will have
a large influence from cloud cover. At this point, initially 
there is not support for really scouring out the low clouds 
meaning overnight lows being inhibited from dropping too 
significantly. But if the arctic front comes in quicker or more 
robustly and clears things out, it could get pretty cold as there 
is a lot snow out there too. The potential for the winds starting 
to scour things out comes toward Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, 
so the coldest periods may be toward the middle of next week. Some
more extreme models show highs not getting out of the single 
digits and lows dropping into the teens below zero, but the model 
spread is too high to go that extreme at this point. The other 
thing we will watch going into the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time 
frame is the potential for dangerous wind chills. Models are 
showing some increased gradients across the north. I increased 
winds over the raw data toward early next week, but the speeds 
could be stronger and wind chills could be lower. Things tend to 
get averaged out by the ensembles as we move further out into the 
forecast, so stay tuned as we get more confidence and models start
to come together. /Solveig

[Ziess]

Think Mark will chime in finally after tonights runs? 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Spokane NWS thoughts

Much colder temperatures are the bigger message of this period,
with the potential for highs in the teens and lows in the single
digits, above and below zero. How cold it gets at night will have
a large influence from cloud cover. At this point, initially 
there is not support for really scouring out the low clouds 
meaning overnight lows being inhibited from dropping too 
significantly. But if the arctic front comes in quicker or more 
robustly and clears things out, it could get pretty cold as there 
is a lot snow out there too. The potential for the winds starting 
to scour things out comes toward Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, 
so the coldest periods may be toward the middle of next week. Some
more extreme models show highs not getting out of the single 
digits and lows dropping into the teens below zero, but the model 
spread is too high to go that extreme at this point. The other 
thing we will watch going into the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time 
frame is the potential for dangerous wind chills. Models are 
showing some increased gradients across the north. I increased 
winds over the raw data toward early next week, but the speeds 
could be stronger and wind chills could be lower. Things tend to 
get averaged out by the ensembles as we move further out into the 
forecast, so stay tuned as we get more confidence and models start
to come together. /Solveig

So NWS Seattle are leaning on the ensembles, while NWS Spokane is not…Hmmm. 

[Prairiedog]

47 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I'm going for 8-12" in Seattle, 8-12" in Tacoma, 8-12" in Olympia, 8-12" in Portland, 8-12" in Salem, 8-12" in Eugene, and the big winner with over 2 inches of 35 degree rain?  That would be Vancouver, BC.

Portland Maine you mean.  Easy to confuse with PDX. 

[snow_wizard]

Unquestionably a discouraging day on the models today although on the plus side the 18z ICON was better than the 12z run, and the 12z ECMWF was still amazing.  Still a chance to pull this one out, but we need to see improvement on the models starting tonight.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So NWS Seattle are leaning on the ensembles, while NWS Spokane is not…Hmmm. 

Yeah I was confused by that. NWS Seattle said the Ops were all over the place but the EMCWF has been rock solid so I didn't get it 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Was the 18Z GFS so bad the boards were shut down for an hour?  

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Was the 18Z GFS so bad the boards were shut down for an hour?  

We always break it when there's the possibility of something big 

[MWG]

Winter and forum cancel 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 and mostly cloudy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE hanging tough at 42, going to have to pay for overachieving on the low this morning. 

[Fircrest]

Wow! I was really worried and wondering if things were shut down for good.  I know I don't contribute much but I'm always reading the forum and after a kind of weird day on here,  and not being able to connect, it felt like I was losing family!

[Cold Snap]

And we’re back! Glad it wasn’t just me! Thought it was forum overload and I was missing out!

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Did some updates, fixed a bug, scaled some things back.
A great reminder for folks to always back up the important stuff to three different places in three different locations.

Thank you for all you do behind the scenes. I actually started getting concerned I'd lose this community even though it was only down for an hour or two. I'm at 33F and while not expecting anything, I set up my snow board so I can record everything that falls.

[Terreboner]

Winter cancel!!!!  Has Tim posted any pictures of his flowers yet?

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

Did some updates, fixed a bug, scaled some things back.
A great reminder for folks to always back up the important stuff to three different places in three different locations.

you fixed the gfs?

[Dave]

I thought I was banned or something. 

35 degrees with clear skies. Tonight should be the first of many subfreezing lows in a row.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

I thought I was banned or something. 

35 degrees with clear skies. Tonight should be the first of many subfreezing lows in a row.

Hopefully you can snag one by midnight for today!

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

I thought I was banned or something. 

35 degrees with clear skies. Tonight should be the first of many subfreezing lows in a row.

It won't lock you out, it will tell you.

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

you fixed the gfs?

I don't know if it was the white chocolate chips I just had for dessert but I laughed so hard at this. 

 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hopefully you can snag one by midnight for today!

Nothing wrong with a two for one special. I'm just excited for the wheelbarrow ice to start.

[LowerGarfield]

I think it's telling that the forum is only just now back up again but we're already basically a page through it already.

[Cold Snap]

Looks like Seattle Weather Blog is on board!

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

It won't lock you out, it will tell you.

Got some experience in the matter?

[High Desert Mat?]

Come on. It’s a warming climate. It’s NOT going to snow. Runs tonight will prove that. 

[Terreboner]

After the way the conversation had been going today I figured EVERYONE was getting a break, lol.

[Ziess]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

And we’re back! Glad it wasn’t just me! Thought it was forum overload and I was missing out!

I made my first post then site went down, figured it was my fault lol