Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 I've seen it get darker during daylight hours before. They're called clouds. I realize this comment is probably purposefully ignorant, but an eclipse is a whole different animal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 I realize this comment is probably purposefully ignorant, but an eclipse is a whole different animal.Surely you can't be serious... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Except yesterday, right? Was that just a fluke? Or, perhaps the (diurnal) persistence of lower boundary layer saturation varies depending on streamflow and upstream differential heating gradients, which would explain modest errors in cloud cover/thermals? Just think about it. No... yesterday was one of the 20% of the days it was not too cool. Watch it for a month and get back to me. I watch it every single day. I know what you will find because it does not change. Its OK for the ECMWF to have some kind of challenge or weakness. I am not blaming you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Looks like our ridge will end up being 3-4 days... exactly what Phil kept saying despite lots of model swings. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 No... yesterday was one of the 20% of the days it was not too cool. Watch it for a month and get back to me. I watch it every single day. I know what you will find because it does not change. Its OK for the ECMWF to have some kind of challenge or weakness. I am not blaming you. All good. Believe me, I'm watching. Bigly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Surely you can't be serious... My name isn't Shirley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 All good. Believe me, I'm watching. Bigly. You will come up with some crazy explanation how the ECMWF does not really mean SEA when it shows "KSEA" but actually it means the shaded side of a cold storage building 2 miles away and that is why its 3-5 degrees too cool on 80% of the days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Yes... 61 is the official high on the 12Z run. It rarely shows a post-5 p.m. high here but it did today. It's pretty common to see the high of the day after 5pm north of 45º and a week away from the solstice. 5:30-6pm is and always has been the sweet spot for peak heating. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 It's pretty common to see the high of the day after 5pm north of 45º and a week away from the solstice. 5:30-6pm is and always has been the sweet spot for peak heating. I realize it happens fairly often in reality. The ECMWF almost never shows it. And its easy to tell on the ECMWF because 5 p.m. here is 00Z. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 I realize it happens fairly often in reality. The ECMWF almost never shows it. And its easy to tell on the ECMWF because 5 p.m. here is 00Z. Use the meteograms for temps! Wxbell has a great layout for the ECMWF making it quick and simple. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 You will come up with some crazy explanation how the ECMWF does not really mean SEA when it shows "KSEA" but actually it means the shaded side of a cold storage building 2 miles away and that is why its 3-5 degrees too cool on 80% of the days. I just told you what the WxBell meteogram for SEA actually represents, so you won't have to worry about that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Just so we're clear, I'm not arguing the model can't or doesn't run warm or cool with surface thermals in various situations. I'm arguing that it's not a "bias" inherent to the model. Big difference there in terms of applicability. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Just so we're clear, I'm not arguing the model can't or doesn't run warm or cool with surface thermals in various situations. I'm arguing that it's not a "bias" inherent to the model. Big difference there in terms of applicability. Just so we are clear... when I see the same 3-5 degree cool bias at KRNT and KBFI and on the max temp map for King County on the ECMWF runs then I know its not an issue with the station itself. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 00Z GFS MOS sticking with 70 tomorrow at SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Just so we are clear... when I see the same 3-5 degree cool bias at KRNT and KBFI and on the max temp map for King County on the ECMWF runs then I know its not an issue with the station itself. Who said it was an issue with the station? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Progged for 2" of rain on Thursday here... I would be getting awfully close to 4" on the month if I got that. My corn would be fine for a while too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Thursday and Friday look downright nasty for this time of year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 FWIW, I think the 00z GFS is probably correct with the sharper ridge early next week. That's closer to what you'd expect to precede a retrogression during an ongoing removal of AAM. Of course, it mishandles the retrogression, but that will correct with time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Looks like a good shot of rain I'll be missing this week. Rained about 0.35" up here today. 59/45. Seasonably chilly. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Nice morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Nice morning. Hit 42 this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Hit 42 this morning.49 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 FWIW, the 12z GFS is more coherent w/ the retrogression, and less bullish on the jet extension. Closer to the 00z EPS ensemble mean solution in many respects. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 #drainthegulf http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9FD56C9A-7BF4-41F2-8C6D-A636E8966F82_zpsyzokdtef.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has come around to the retrogression idea that Phil has been talking about for the last couple weeks. Looks like he is going to nail it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 12Z ECMWF has come around to the retrogression idea that Phil has been talking about for the last couple weeks. Looks like he is going to nail it. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017061412/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.pngThanks man [knocks on wood]. Now I have to avoid screwing up for another 2+ months. I think you'll like the late June and July pattern better than this one given the drier, more northerly streamflow overall. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday. This is a change. I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday. All bets off with the new scenario being shown. Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday. This is a change. I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday. All bets off with the new scenario being shown. Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging.What a tool... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 What a tool...ECMWF will still be too cool... but 75 is in serious jeopardy now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Models now flood the WA lowlands with low clouds under a building ridge on Sunday. This is a change. I now revoke my offer to bet on the high temp for Sunday. All bets off with the new scenario being shown. Unfortunate that we might miss out on warm weather during a couple days of ridging.Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Seems to be clouding up a little earlier than anticipated today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Cloudy all day here. Even a little drizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Seems to be clouding up a little earlier than anticipated today. Clouding up? It cleared up for about an hour. Looks like that is sum total of any meaningful sun for this work week. Summer! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 90 looking less and less likely today. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 Clouding up? It cleared up for about an hour. Looks like that is sum total of any meaningful sun for this work week. Summer!The forecast for down here was partly cloudy early, and near 70. I wasn't expecting a solid cloud deck by noon. Pleasant surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 People be riding models like it's December. Funny stuff. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 I find the fact that you have been wrong about almost every prediction you have made in the last few months to be a lot funnier, personally.Nice bern. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 14, 2017 Report Share Posted June 14, 2017 People be riding models like it's December. Funny stuff.I don't see anyone "model riding". Models swing back and forth all the time, and I think most here recognize this. Some models struggle with patterns like this, but these problems eventually work themselves out. In this case, the ECMWF/EPS suite is probably best suited to handle the retrogression going forward. And again, I think most here recognize this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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