Tyler Mode Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday. Pictures and words can't do the experience justice. Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction. Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening. Chills and goosebumps thinking about it! 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 On paper, this winter has the potential to be better than last winter in the PNW. More coherent ENSO system, weaker sun, and a more vulnerable PV thanks to -QBO/easterly momentum deposition. However, as 2007/08 reminds us, the thing to "fear" during such a winter is a nuclear +EPO. The conduit for it is wide open during the -QBO boundary state, due to a weaker NPAC high. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday. Pictures and words can't do the experience justice. Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction. Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening. Chills and goosebumps thinking about it!You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Interesting stuff. What were some of the driest Augusts on record at SEA? I'm curious to see their ENSOs and solar states. Well, if you're looking at August alone: 1967, 1974, 1986, 2002, 2006, and 2012. All had .10" or less. For July/August: 1945, 1958, 1967, 1973, 1984, and 2006. All had less than .40". Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Well, if you're looking at August alone: 1967, 1974, 1986, 2002, 2006, and 2012. All had .10" or less. For July/August: 1945, 1958, 1967, 1973, 1984, and 2006. All had less than .40".What about the driest -ENSO years? I'm handicapped I only have an iPhone here (with a cracked screen) so it's not the best tool for browsing pages with small numbers. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 A couple of pictures from the eclipse in Antelope, Oregon yesterday. Pictures and words can't do the experience justice. Watching the last light fade and darkness envelope you, yet sunset in every direction. Stars and planets out and cool temps as the birds and insects moved around like it was evening. Chills and goosebumps thinking about it! I got goosebumps just watching my son's video and their reaction to the total eclipse. I posted this in the eclipse thread but people might not be going there any longer. https://vimeo.com/230626536 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07. Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Yea there were several dogs in the area we were and none acted weird. Overall I didn't notice animals acting weird. Biggest thing I noticed being out in the fields was the crickets stopped chirping almost exactly at the same time of totality then started right back up again after. Made things extra eerie! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time. You should go! We've already added to the calendar to head to the midwest or the Montreal area in 2024. We're hooked! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Bracing for the big marine push and the epic marine layer morning on Thursday! Sunny by early afternoon... but still.Do you have your ISO compliant big marine push glasses? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 You should go! We've already added to the calendar to head to the midwest or the Montreal area in 2024. We're hooked! I would think Texas is your best bet in 2024 given that its happening in April. But you never know... we will be in an the next ice age by then and Texas will be the new Manitoba. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Do you have your ISO compliant big marine push glasses? Safeway is sold out! Going to have to stay indoors and away from the windows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 He was clearly trying reverse psychology/jinxing on Mother Nature, which is never a good call.Looks like you may eat crow in your doubting of my prediction. That would explain the sour grapes I suppose. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 22, 2017 Report Share Posted August 22, 2017 Pretty 1967-esque feel to the late month heat spike being advertised on the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 1 clap of thunder about 15 minutes ago. This was just a popcorn popup since I haven't heard a thing since then. And can't even see the cloud through all this smoke. It is pretty thick today. 4th storm day so far this August. I hope more come in soon this evening. NWS indicates a chance of overnight convection. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Looks like you may eat crow in your doubting of my prediction. That would explain the sour grapes I suppose. You're the sourest grape of all. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 You're the sourest grape of all.Ok. I had actually run the numbers mid month before making statements along the lines of an all-time record warm month looking likely. Wasn't just pulling it out of thin air. For someone who seems to desperately crave credit for every stroke of forecasting genius they make, you are surprisingly stingy about handing it to others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Two degrees below our average August high (2017-2017 baseline) today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Sky is noticeably hazier today. Puke!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Sky is noticeably hazier today. Puke!!! How bad is it in your area? I've had AQI's between 100 and 200, with mornings around 40-60 ish last couple weeks. Still not as bad as August 2015, even though that was a lot shorter but it was literally Beijing here back then. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 For the new eclipse chasers... here are the remaining total eclipses in North America for the rest of this century. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 You're right. While those are amazing pictures, it really doesn't come close to the live experience. I just wish it were longer than 2:07. When you think about it, 2 minutes is actually pretty long for totality. I'll have to go to Chile in 2019 and 2020 I guess. Should be awesome there. Even here with 90% lunar coverage, the air became eerily still and the insects/birds were mostly quiet (some birds were chirping but it was like at dusk) and then when the sun came back there were quite a few birds making a move for it after sitting on a building for a few minutes. The wind came back when the sun came back as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Web cam time lapse from yesterday from the OSU campus in Corvallis. Amazing how fast totality goes by... but so cool to see You will have to pause it around 10:17 a.m. to really see it. http://webcam.oregonstate.edu/cam/mu/timelapse/2017-08-21.mp4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Go to the east side of the Dallas area on 4/8/2024... double your time. My brother who missed out on this one is already planning that one. He's jealous he missed this trip. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 When you think about it, 2 minutes is actually pretty long for totality. I'll have to go to Chile in 2019 and 2020 I guess. Should be awesome there. Even here with 90% lunar coverage, the air became eerily still and the insects/birds were mostly quiet (some birds were chirping but it was like at dusk) and then when the sun came back there were quite a few birds making a move for it after sitting on a building for a few minutes. The wind came back when the sun came back as well.Interesting that you and Kayla both noticed the cricket and bird changes. Our area didn't have a lot of birds or bugs and maybe that's because we were on a slope without much water. I mainly noticed the temperature drop. It was in the mid 70s around 9am and I was sweating in direct sun. Once the sun started going away it must have dropped to the low 60s and it was in fact a little chilly with a cool breeze before and after totality. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 1 clap of thunder about 15 minutes ago. This was just a popcorn popup since I haven't heard a thing since then. And can't even see the cloud through all this smoke. It is pretty thick today. 4th storm day so far this August. I hope more come in soon this evening. NWS indicates a chance of overnight convection.How is it now? Looking decent over your area. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Interesting that you and Kayla both noticed the cricket and bird changes. Our area didn't have a lot of birds or bugs and maybe that's because we were on a slope without much water. I mainly noticed the temperature drop. It was in the mid 70s around 9am and I was sweating in direct sun. Once the sun started going away it must have dropped to the low 60s and it was in fact a little chilly with a cool breeze before and after totality. Hmm, well now that you mention it there was a decidedly chilly breeze during the maximum here. I was in an exposed field during that time which is why I felt a breeze then. Shouldering that time I was in less exposed areas within more wooded area and there was no breeze in the trees. All in all, it was a weird time. Still 77F here at 9:30pm with a 61F dew point. <_> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 How is it now? Looking decent over your area. Storms increased in coverage definitely.. Got some moderate rainfall, even a brief downpour almost an hour ago. For some reason thunder wasn't very loud (aside from just 1 decent boom which shook the walls), I wonder if the smoke plays a role in masking the sound of thunder in some way? Based on radar, a good two or three storms were near the house. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Ok. I had actually run the numbers mid month before making statements along the lines of an all-time record warm month looking likely. Wasn't just pulling it out of thin air. For someone who seems to desperately crave credit for every stroke of forecasting genius they make, you are surprisingly stingy about handing it to others. It wasn't a serious post. You went from talking about a 1977-esque pattern flip to talking about the warmest month on record - all within a week! You deserve every bit of credit you're getting. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 It wasn't a serious post. You went from talking about a 1977-esque pattern flip to talking about the warmest month on record - all within a week! You deserve every bit of credit you're getting.Discussing the models. They changed. A 1977-like flip looked to be on the table early on in the month. By mid month the writing was on the wall that things would run very warm overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 OLM, the station that truly matters from a historical context, faces a very stiff challenge to hit all-time warmest month. Currently running almost 2 degrees behind July 1958. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Discussing the models. They changed. A 1977-like flip looked to be on the table early on in the month. By mid month the writing was on the wall that things would run very warm overall. Sure. You deserve all sorts of kudos for your model discussions. And I welcomed you with open arms to the warm August camp. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Sure. You deserve all sorts of kudos for your model discussions. And I welcomed you with open arms to the warm August camp. I never was asking for kudos, I don't have my ego nearly as tied into my forecasting prowess as you, Phil et al. Just don't try to paint reasonable (somewhat obvious) model analysis as some kind of reverse psychology wishcasting deal. The writing was on the wall for a record or near record warm month a week ago, back when you were arguing with me that it was numerically unlikely, if not impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 I never was asking for kudos, I don't have my ego nearly as tied into my forecasting prowess as you, Phil et al. Just don't try to paint reasonable (somewhat obvious) model analysis as some kind of reverse psychology wishcasting deal. The writing was on the wall for a record or near record warm month a week ago, back when you were arguing with me that it was numerically unlikely, if not impossible. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 Good point! Boring discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 The cooler weather the next 2-3 days will be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 How bad is it in your area? I've had AQI's between 100 and 200, with mornings around 40-60 ish last couple weeks. Still not as bad as August 2015, even though that was a lot shorter but it was literally Beijing here back then. It's been in the good range up here, but the smoky haze today was noticeable to the southeast. Mt. Hood was obscured all day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 OLM, the station that truly matters from a historical context, faces a very stiff challenge to hit all-time warmest month. Currently running almost 2 degrees behind July 1958. This month has been pretty unimpressive then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 OLM, the station that truly matters from a historical context, faces a very stiff challenge to hit all-time warmest month. Currently running almost 2 degrees behind July 1958. Comparing the Puget Sound to the Willamette Valley can be a bit of an apples/oranges affair. July 1958 was favored for the Puget Sound. Incredible anomalies. Monroe pulled off an 87.7 mean maximum for the month, almost 4F higher than any other month on record. Even Clearbrook averaged 85.1 for a max. On the other hand, PDX averaged "only" 83.5, and Eugene's 87.5 came in lower than Monroe. In 2014 alone, EUG averaged warmer maximums in both July (87.6) and August (87.8). July 1958 isn't the standard bearer for the Willamette Valley like it is in the Puget Sound. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted August 23, 2017 Report Share Posted August 23, 2017 The models continue to forecast max 20C 850 temps for the rest of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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