PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe the upgrade was worth it.

Could be, if we didn't have such a powerful arctic high player on the field I'd expect all the energy to make a b line towards Vancouver Island but the way the energy is riding along the stalled arctic boundary things can tend to be suppressed and struggle to move north. Everything hinges on how far the arctic trough actually moves sw and until this happens the models won't know where this energy is precisely headed. Things should really become clear on tonight's 00z run.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not at hour 84.  Much nicer digging than the 12z.

I was looking at hr 96 but that might just be some fluctuation. Doesn't look that great for the Willamette Valley though

[SouthHillFrosty]

Not a good trend on the icon. Significant jump north. One more jump and this could be gone. so far the Icon and RGEM are onboard for a rug pull. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[snow_wizard]

It does appear the stakes could be getting high for Tuesday.  A real classic might in the works for somewhere in the Puget Sound region.  Could be further south also.

[WeatherGeek2022]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We lost the RGEM

gonna need that 14 inches to come to the south sound plz.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Could be, if we didn't have such a powerful arctic high player on the field I'd expect all the energy to make a b line towards Vancouver Island but the way the energy is riding along the stalled arctic boundary things can tend to be suppressed and struggle to move north. Everything hinges on how far the arctic trough actually moves sw and until this happens the models won't know where this energy is precisely headed. Things should really become clear on tonight's 00z run.

As I said.  The GFS was terrible up until the 12z today.  It showed no cold for Tuesday and Wednesday.  How is that a good performance?

[snow_wizard]

Why do people always assume the worst with these things.  Always!

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

As I said.  The GFS was terrible up until the 12z today.  It showed no cold for Tuesday and Wednesday.  How is that a good performance?

Looks like highs around 35-40 for the Willamette Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could get cold around NW OR but I don't know

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do people always assume the worst with these things.  Always!

lol gonna just fork this thing at this point why not.

 

traditional bellingham favoritism.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Not a good trend on the icon. Significant jump north. One more jump and this could be gone. so far the Icon and RGEM are onboard for a rug pull. 

I can tell I'm not going to be able to talk people down from the ledge today.   It's going to be fine for Seattle.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Why do people always assume the worst with these things.  Always!

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 47 times, shame on me.

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Why do people always assume the worst with these things.  Always!

Forum is definitely too pessimistic could be a great event for Olympia north unfortunately not likely in Portland though 

[Doinko]

Mark Nelsen on the Thursday Friday event:

After mainly dry weather Wednesday, a much wetter system may spread moisture over the top of cold air pouring through the Columbia River Gorge Thursday and/or Friday. This is the 2nd big possibility I’m watching. I’m feeling confident a snow/ice storm could be on the way the 2nd half of next week in the Gorge. But could it be cold enough to bring freezing rain or an ice storm to at least part of the metro area? That would be just 2-3 days before Christmas. We will see...

[Meatyorologist]

God that ICON is hawt

[snow_wizard]

ICON has snow starting Monday night.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I said.  The GFS was terrible up until the 12z today.  It showed no cold for Tuesday and Wednesday.  How is that a good performance?

The GFS has indeed been a bit too weak and progressive with the ULL, but calling it terrible while giving all others a mysterious pass is pretty disingenuous. It’s a tough pattern to resolve with such a bitter, relatively “new” air mass interacting with the undercut. Just as before the update, it’s been a useful piece of the evolving puzzle.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 47 times, shame on me.

I can see it in OR.  You guys have had a hard time scoring well for a while.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

The GFS has indeed been a bit too weak and progressive with the ULL, but calling it terrible while giving all others a mysterious pass is pretty disingenuous. It’s a tough pattern to resolve with such a bitter, relatively “new” air mass interacting with the undercut. Just as before the update, it’s been a useful piece of the evolving puzzle.

Fair enough.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why do people always assume the worst with these things.  Always!

I think its just the years of torment we've all put up with watching this stuff. The thing that is important is that we have all the players on the field and over the next 72 hrs something pretty special could happen anywhere from Salem to Bellingham.  Just getting this far is a big deal. And like you and me know along with a bunch of us is when you have a 1060mb arctic high on our doorstep a bunch of crazy shittt can happen.

[Everleigh]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can tell I'm not going to be able to talk people down from the ledge today.   It's going to be fine for Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

God that ICON is hawt

We have a shot at a great event Monday night and Tuesday.  FWIW the 500mb pattern is unchanged or better than the 12z in that time frame.  No real northward shift at that level.

[lowlandsnow]

GFS looks better at hour 15

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

We have a shot at a great event Monday night and Tuesday.  FWIW the 500mb pattern is unchanged or better than the 12z in that time frame.  No real northward shift at that level.

Hoping it trends south. Yesterday it was looking like Portland would be the bullseye. If that doesn't work out maybe the Thursday system could start as snow

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen on the Thursday Friday event:

After mainly dry weather Wednesday, a much wetter system may spread moisture over the top of cold air pouring through the Columbia River Gorge Thursday and/or Friday. This is the 2nd big possibility I’m watching. I’m feeling confident a snow/ice storm could be on the way the 2nd half of next week in the Gorge. But could it be cold enough to bring freezing rain or an ice storm to at least part of the metro area? That would be just 2-3 days before Christmas. We will see...

The EPS actually trended north with the heaviest precip for that possible ice event.  Fingers crossed.

[mtep]

Looking like a chilly arrival into Nashville for me later this week. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The -41 at tok river valley in the Yukon at 1pm in the afternoon is impressive.  This air mass being dispursed out of the Yukon is impressive.  Going to be interesting to see how much makes it into the Fraser. 

[lowlandsnow]

GFS is better so far

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The -41 at tok river valley in the Yukon at 1pm in the afternoon is impressive.  This air mass being dispursed out of the Yukon is impressive.  Going to be interesting to see how much makes it into the Fraser. 

Has anyone been tracking this on the models??? I feel like we might be behind the curve on this!

[Nov1985]

News of the ICON's demise has been greatly exaggerated. 

[Doinko]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

News of the ICON's demise has been greatly exaggerated. 

It's a good run for WA

[snow_wizard]

GFS digs a tad better.  Third run in a row to do that now.

[bainbridgekid]

18z has more moisture and a stronger CZ signature tomorrow than previous GFS runs.

[awright-31]

One bad RGEM and ICON run and here they come.

[Cold Snap]

A little better on the GFS.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

News of the ICON's demise has been greatly exaggerated. 

Ya think?  This place is enough to drive a person to drink.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

A little better on the GFS.

Tiny improvements are huge in this case.  A northward trend is less likely all the time.

[MossMan]

Back at home it’s been flurrying off and on, temp at 32.9. Finished up last minute preps around the property. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, awright-31 said:

One bad RGEM and ICON run and here they come.

the mighty fork looking quite scary at this size

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It's a good run for WA

I see what you mean. That Tue low won't be settled until Tuesday probably.

[Doinko]

That northern low wins out but it's farther south than the 12z