PNW December 2022 - Part II

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This is looking more and more like a baby January 2012. Though probably a little colder.

I think the heights were a lot higher with that main event and the cold wasn't as entrenched as this will be.  Maybe kind of like the stuff that came before the big ice storm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Also tracking obs in the Yukon. The current sea-level pressure of 1060 mb and with a temp of -40 at Dawson is pretty astounding. 

(The highest sea level pressure ever recorded on earth is 1083 mb.)

 

Dawson has a record low of minus 73 in February 1947.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's actually more of a baroclinic zone or Arctic frontal boundary.  Much much safer than a closed low.

That looks like a great track for snow for PDX

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A cold 37 for the "daytime" high today at SEA.  Expecting to warm up to near 40 through the evening though. 

 

The temp has actually started to drop here after a high of 36.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

That looks like a great track for snow for PDX

It could happen.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the heights were a lot higher with that main event and the cold wasn't as entrenched as this will be.  Maybe kind of like the stuff that came before the big ice storm.

I always guage these outflows by Bellingham.  If they get in the upper teens with a 30 to 50mph wind this is going to be a good one.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It could happen.

If that arctic front intrudes as far south as Portland then someone is getting buried.  Precip is always under forecast in these scenarios.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You can see the trough of low pressure circulation forming around Northern Vancouver Island. The features we have been tracking for a week are being born right now lol.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That looks like a great track for snow for PDX

Totally could be, but I maintain people are sleeping on the late-week transition event possibility. Possibly because it'll be one of those Gorge reliant events

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the trough of low pressure circulation forming around Northern Vancouver Island. The features we have been tracking for a week are being born right now lol.

Satellite is showing good north to south progression with the front itself as well. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I could care less if I get massive snow, all I want is a few inches and a couple sub freezing highs. I truly want Portland area to get hit hard with the bullseye of the heavy snow.

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the trough of low pressure circulation forming around Northern Vancouver Island. The features we have been tracking for a week are being born right now lol.

Looks further west than modeled too.  I don't see that moving off to the east.  Looks classic to me.

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic front through Kamloops now.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Totally could be, but I maintain people are sleeping on the late-week transition event possibility. Possibly because it'll be one of those Gorge reliant events

Could be a crazy event with freezing rain and raging Gorge winds

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Satellite is showing good north to south progression with the front itself as well. 

My gut feeling is tomorrow evening will be much more snow than models show. It will make a huge difference going into this with a already chilly airmass. The snow level in the interior sound is already around 500ft. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Looks further west than modeled too.  I don't see that moving off to the east.  Looks classic to me.

Agreed.  It has a over performance look. I haven't been this confident since 2019 about places getting hit hard this week.

[Seattle]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You can see the trough of low pressure circulation forming around Northern Vancouver Island. The features we have been tracking for a week are being born right now lol.

It still amazes me that we are able to model the weather as well as we do… despite our high expectations. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic front nearing Lytton.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My gut feeling is tomorrow evening will be much more snow than models show. It will make a huge difference going into this with an already chilly airmass. The snow level in the interior sound is already around 500ft. 

 I think tomorrow evening will end up better than expected too. Though the best snow will come Tuesday I could see a more widespread than forecast light snowfall tomorrow night. 

[Terreboner]

I am feeling mellow about tonight's models.  I am drinking some red wine, sophistication is not above me.....BURP!!!!!

[T-Town]

Heading to Alderbrook tomorrow, will be extra beautiful if we can get some snow. 

[gusky]

Another slightly warmer run for the EPS before Tues, then colder for the Thurs period. That's the trend I'm noticing among most models RN

[smerfylicious]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Arctic front nearing Lytton.

Lytton? Pretty sure that landmark doesn't exist anymore friend.

 

(Too soon?)

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Heading to Alderbrook tomorrow, will be extra beautiful if we can get some snow. 

Werent you supposed to head out there earlier this month and the weather prevented it? 

[Kayla]

20 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Also tracking obs in the Yukon. The current sea-level pressure of 1060 mb and with a temp of -40 at Dawson is pretty astounding. 

(The highest sea level pressure ever recorded on earth is 1083 mb.)

 

12z Euro shows Montana tying the lower 48 record of 1064 mb. Record is from December 1983 of course. 18z GFS shows us beating it with 1067 mb.

This airmass is packing a punch!

 

 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Convergence getting its act together between Port Townsend and Mt. Vernon. Could get interesting soon up by Randy. @MossMan

Had a temp spike an hour ago to 34, down to 33.6 now with a mixture beginning, hopefully a complete turn back to snow will be shortly. 

[mtep]

Radar is showing snow on the east side of town. Looks like Chewbacca might be getting in on the action. Im headed to my parents house in Sudden Valley soon, hopefully they also get the good stuff while im there.  

[MossMan]

Been Watching a chainsaw cold start video…Why…No clue. But it was entertaining. 

 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Werent you supposed to head out there earlier this month and the weather prevented it? 

Yeah it was during our last snowy period and their power was out. Gonna try again tomorrow. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, mtep said:

Radar is showing snow on the east side of town. Looks like Chewbacca might be getting in on the action. Im headed to my parents house in Sudden Valley soon, hopefully they also get the good stuff while im there.  

I used to live in Sudden Valley.   It was beautiful there when it snowed.  (Pretty nice in the Summer too).  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Something I've noticed, the NWS in the past would always have a special weather statement in advance of arctic air or moderate snow chances and lately that hasn't happened.  Although the models are better I believe they also swing more wildly than they did in the past probably due to the higher resolution causing more uncertainty in the 3-5 day time-frame. 

[Perturbed Member]

25 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That looks like a great track for snow for PDX

It looks like that at a glance but the our airmass just isn't that cold yet at that point. It is still in the upper 20s at The Dalles and the euro claims that the offshore gradient has not yet ramped up at that point. 

[Perturbed Member]

22 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Totally could be, but I maintain people are sleeping on the late-week transition event possibility. Possibly because it'll be one of those Gorge reliant events

I don't think people are sleeping on it. I think that is probably our best bet and maybe only real chance of seeing anything out of this whole event. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Been Watching a chainsaw cold start video…Why…No clue. But it was entertaining. 

 

I bought the dewalt battery powered 20 inch bar saw to try out and it's a complete animal.  Cuts as good as my stihl ms280. Battery lasted 30 minutes. 

[mtep]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I used to live in Sudden Valley.   It was beautiful there when it snowed.  (Pretty nice in the Summer too).  

Its a beautiful area and so much more affordable than anything in city limits right now. They have a nice lot that backs up to a creek and gets a relatively decent amount of sunlight. Got a little sketchy last november though. Like you said, amazing in the winter though!

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It looks like that at a glance but the our airmass just isn't that cold yet at that point. It is still in the upper 20s at The Dalles and the euro claims that the offshore gradient has not yet ramped up at that point. 

Is that a bit south from the 12z?

[The Cats Meow]

Rainy and windy in the valley.  Kind of surprised.

All the frosty spots are gone and the snow won't stick as good if and when it starts.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like Mark is going for a total non-event (assuming he is the one forecasting tonight) Seems pretty bold to not have even a single day below 35 or any frozen precip next week but who knows. I’m fairly bearish about this event overall but a high in the low 30s Thursday and some ZR definitely seems possible.

[MossMan]

33.4…C’MON keep truckin down! 

[Christensen87]

Drove over Tiger from Kent to North Bend for dinner. 32° and raining, so frustrating. Tiger Mountain was a winter wonderland though.