PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

The NAM barely even has a system. Would keep it much colder too

[joelgombiner]

By the way, up in the Yukon, some spots have now dropped below -50. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

It's been snowing continuously there for the last 30 hours! They seem to be in a sweet spot with these type of events for persistent snow. 

It's because they always draw "First Blood".

[gusky]

These are the kind of trends ya love to see. 

[WildrootParable]

Not sure what the chances are for us here in Kitsap but I just got back from the store and there's a BIG bank of thick clouds to the north; I'm assuming that's all part of what we're watching move downward, right? 

Here at home it's bright sunshine, but we're still under 40 degrees. Very curious to see how this evening plays out.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Down to 21 in Bellingham.  Wow!!

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What the heck is that dot on the east slopes of Olympics. It has been there for 4 days in the models. I know it's from convergence but it is strange. It is lined up with my place so it might move more east. Very rare to have convergence here like that though.

I almost posted about this last night.  That much snow in Quilcene, and that much snow near say SODO with an empty hole over Kitsap looks real strange.  I don't think I believe it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

These are the kind of trends ya love to see. 

Red is colder

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just caught up, so this thing cancelled again for the south sound?

[gusky]

NAM just keeps BFI at exactly 28F for like 3 days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

JAYA does not seem to be on board. What’s funny is I think some people have already gotten way more than what these are showing.

He's probably one of the best Mets to come out of the Seattle nws. Guy knows his stuff and sure he's not always right but he's good. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Graupel/Snow mix now in Everett. 20ft asl and air temp at 41°.

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

He's probably one of the best Mets to come out of the Seattle nws. Guy knows his stuff and sure he's not always right but he's good. 

Yeah definitely. I was more just stating the fact that one of those models shows Vancouver getting nothing while they already have gotten hammered with snow.

[Jbolin]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Graupel/Snow mix now in Everett. 20ft asl and air temp at 41°.

So dumb 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z Euro EPS suite in lockstep for 2m temps for PDX. Cold.  

[Blizzard777]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cornflakes all of a sudden! 

Snow shovels are falling at Randy’s

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The EC Victoria forecast seems downright irresponsible for Tuesday. It's like they've pulled this from a single RGEM run last night:

[Winterdog]

33F and snowing moderately.  Very nice to see.  Hope you all get some snow before the week ends.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The EC Victoria forecast seems downright irresponsible for Tuesday. It's like they've pulled this from a single RGEM run last night:

Yep that won't work out to well. Maybe 33. Must be a typo.

[MossMan]

And the sun just came out. And it’s snowing. And it’s down to 33.1

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

JAYA does not seem to be on board. What’s funny is I think some people have already gotten way more than what these are showing.

Why would anyone ignore the ECMWF for what is happening in the next 24 hours?   They post tweets ripping on the short term models and then the next time they use those same models again and ignore the ECMWF.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

33F and snowing moderately.  Very nice to see.  Hope you all get some snow before the week ends.

Finally!

[TT-SEA]

I see his using the EPS for the weather that is happening today and not the actual operational model.  

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Why would anyone ignore the ECMWF for what is happening in the next 24 hours?   They post tweets ripping on the short term models and then the next time they use those same models again and ignore the ECMWF.   

Seems illogical. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Why would anyone ignore the ECMWF for what is happening in the next 24 hours?   They post tweets ripping on the short term models and then the next time they use those same models again and ignore the ECMWF.   

He is very good but generally leans towards climo. He ends up being right more often than not because of it but I agree with you.  

[HuskyMaestro]

We were shooting some cans at my parent’s property southeast of Roy/Yelm and the temperatures felt like they dropped 5-10 degrees as snow fell for a quick trace before stopping. Hands are still numb lol 

[runninthruda206]

Need that band developing over everett to sink to N seattle and just chill there for a little while

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, runninthruda206 said:

Need that band developing over everett to sink to N seattle and just chill there for a little while

Looks like some new bands are trying to develop over the central sound. NWS suggested it would snow between 2 and 3 PM in Seattle... 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

He is very good but generally leans towards climo. He ends up being right more often than not because of it but I agree with you.  

I agree with leaning towards climo... but the ECMWF is the best guidance for same day weather.    And a c-zone is climo in this situation.   And we have seen the other short term models fail recently and often fail completely with arctic air moving southward into western WA.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nam tracks the low from Aberdeen south through about Olympia. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Looks like some new bands are trying to develop over the central sound. NWS suggested it would snow between 2 and 3 PM in Seattle... 

It's pretty well advertised in the models that tonight is the time for King County.  Exact details of course are impossible.

[Meatyorologist]

Cloudcover rapidly increasing over the city as radar begins to fill in.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with leaning towards climo... but the ECMWF is the best guidance for same day weather.    And a c-zone is climo in this situation.   And we have seen the other short term models fail recently and often fail completely with arctic air moving southward into western WA.

But climo in this case?  This is a highly abnormal setup.  

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nam tracks the low from Aberdeen south through about Olympia. 

That would be very snowy from about Seattle northward.

[flya00]

Woke up to solid snowfall in Kelowna. Currently 7F with a Wind Chill of -11F.

[North_County]

Ended up with a generous inch before the snow stopped (although accurate snow measurements are impossible here when the wind is blowing like this). Just frigid NE wind for now. Looks to be some juiciness heading this way if the radar is to be believed. Will be interesting to see if it can overcome the outflow.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

But climo in this case?  This is a highly abnormal setup.  

A c-zone is climo when there is wind from the north and south meeting around Seattle... in any season.    That is what we have today.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

But climo in this case?  This is a highly abnormal setup.  

Yeah, I think this one is anyone's guess, there aren't a lot of great climate analogs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And the sun just came out. And it’s snowing. And it’s down to 33.1

Is there a snowbow?

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nam tracks the low from Aberdeen south through about Olympia. 

On Wednesday afternoon!   What day is that system happening?