PNW December 2022 - Part II

[jcmcgaffey]

Definitely warming here now with the dew point up to 30. Wunderground app just updated with the ECMWF info and brought my projected totals from 7” down to 3” and shows rain starting in a few hours unfortunately.  Definitely jumped warmer to up to 35 tonight

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

6 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Euro Snow map for Thursday/Friday?

Sorry, I didn't phrase this very well. Can someone post a Euro snow map for Thurs/Friday?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

Sorry, I didn't phrase this very well. Can someone post a Euro snow map for Thurs/Friday?

 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Definitely warming here now with the dew point up to 30. Wunderground app just updated with the ECMWF info and brought my projected totals from 7” down to 3” and shows rain starting in a few hours unfortunately.  Definitely jumped warmer to up to 35 tonight

You are in North Seattle. Good chance you stay snow. 

[Weiner Warrior]

It's over. Everyone can go to bed and catch up on sleep.

[luterra]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

How about an ice map :-(.

[TT-SEA]

Portland might a real freezing rain problem on Friday.

[joelgombiner]

Almost seems like the real storm here is the high pressure. 

[Dave]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps on Thursday.

There's a member that posts on this site that probably shouldn't see this frame.

[The Winter Warlock]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The pass would need to be about 2,500 feet deeper so it comes in at valley level... but yeah that would be a huge change in the climate of Seattle.   

I’ll start a GoFundMe and we can purchase a lot of TNT.

[luterra]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Portland might a real freezing rain problem on Friday.

The whole region might have a freezing rain problem...

Thankfully not the sort of stationary overrunning that brought 1-2" of ice to places in Feb. 2021.  Thanks for posting!

[TT-SEA]

Christmas Day looks basically dry on this run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Dave said:

There's a member that posts on this site that probably shouldn't see this frame.

Sadly it looks like a midnight high of 34F.

[jcmcgaffey]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You are in North Seattle. Good chance you stay snow. 

I should clarify it is 32 now but the app upped the max temp tonight from 32 to 35. Obviously it waffles crazy now based on each model input but that low does look to go north. 

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Step back from 18z for us. 850s warm real quick on this run. Imagine there will be a good deal of waffling on whether or not snow happens on the models basically all the way up until the event.

Yep, 850s warm very quickly at precip onset on 00z Euro. Similar theme with what we saw with the 00z GEM and GFS. 

I think the models have actually become pretty dialed in with this event, the agreement for the big picture is very good. It is just that the situation is really just that marginal for us if we want some snow and these tiny fluctuations make or break that shot for 1-3 inches of snow. 

Will be fun to track this in the coming days.

My gut feeling is we're probably more likely to just have some brief snow and a dusting or so before going to sleet and then ZR. Hard to ignore basically every model aggressively mixing out the airmass aloft. At the same time I don't think you can rule out a quick few inches of snow since it wouldn't take much for that to happen either. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Christmas Day looks basically dry on this run.

Looks like this could possibly be the warmest Christmas Day since 2005?

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

I’ll start a GoFundMe and we can purchase a lot of TNT.

We could put a lot of people to work in this country.

[Hawksfan2008]

Down to 28 here in North Bend. We’re gonna get hammered. 

[RentonHill]

Finally sticking here and decent flakes. 32. 

[Cold Snap]

Am I crazy for only putting slides on with my bare feet when I go out to measure the snow? It’s kind of like walking in the warm sand except it’s cold snow.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like the warmest Christmas Day on record at face value.

Looks warm but temps in the low 50s in the South Valley and 40s in Portland isn't gonna be the warmest on record. PDX had a 64/60 day on Christmas in 1980

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A bit over 3" in Victoria now. We took a quick walk around about an hour ago, it'll be interesting to see how it looks in the morning:

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Snowfall rates definitely picking up 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Am I crazy for only putting slides on with my bare feet when I go out to measure the snow? It’s kind of like walking in the warm sand except it’s cold snow.

I have done the same thing numerous times in the last couple weeks.   Doesn't bother me if it's just a short time.

[Tenochtitlan]

BLI is reporting moderate snow now, but still only reports a trace for the night so far. There's no way only a trace of precip has fallen, lol. They seem to possibly underreport precipitation amounts when we get these powdery snow events.

[Requiem]

I like that the cold is persistent. Precip type will waffle around-- not too worried about that. All in all a good EURO run in the short term.

[lowlandsnow]

Michael Synder is doing a livestream

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, The Winter Warlock said:

I’ll start a GoFundMe and we can purchase a lot of TNT.

If I had the money Elon musk had I would by enough land through the cascades and build a tunnel for the cold air to come into the sound.

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If I had the money Elon musk had I would by enough land through the cascades and build a tunnel for the cold air to come into the sound.

Just add your own windmills and I’m sure you’d get your ROI after a few years.

[TT-SEA]

I think the radar just went down... the UW loop is stuck at 10:14

[Doinko]

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

#BuildTheTunnel!

The tunnel would have to be huge and even if it was 500ft wide the east side of it would probably have so much vacuum it would pull animals through it lol

[Parrot]

Largely stopped snowing for the moment, I have about 2" including yesterday's warmup. Looks like the old school mercury could use an upgrade lol

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the radar just went down... the UW loop is stuck at 10:14

Both the coastal and interior radars are working fine on RadarScope.

[gusky]

32.7 and some of the snow from the evening is melting. Need the latest WRF run to come true for the sake of my sanity

[The Winter Warlock]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The tunnel would have to be huge and even if it was 500ft wide the east side of it would probably have so much vacuum it would pull animals through it lol

Sounds like we just need to add some wind turbines down the length of the tunnel and clear the entrance/exit.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If I had the money Elon musk had I would by enough land through the cascades and build a tunnel for the cold air to come into the sound.

Stewart BC has an interesting climate, it sits at the end of a large inlet on the north coast in an area where the Coastal Range narrows substantially. That leaves a short gap to airmasses from the central interior. That's enough to give them a sub-freezing average high in January and a huge amount of annual snow (224.5"). Makes me wonder how Squamish would compare if it had similar access to the Arctic air.

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Latest radar loops from both radars.

[Parrot]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

32.7 and some of the snow from the evening is melting. Need the latest WRF run to come true for the sake of my sanity

Even up here I doubt I'll stay freezing. Warm nose will probably at least give me a tickle with quite a bit of meltage. just trying to enjoy what I have so far.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The tunnel would have to be huge and even if it was 500ft wide the east side of it would probably have so much vacuum it would pull animals through it lol

You'd have to fight geothermal heating too, otherwise it could just become a giant heat pump.