DareDuck Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Isn't Indian summer's only a synoptic situation east of the Rockies? Usually you get your first hard freeze that kills crops then warmth returns sometimes for lengthy periods of times.Mountainous regions of the west can see a freeze or even snow in late September and then return to warmth in October. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 I dunno, today seemed destined for at least the mid 80's. Especially after the 63 degree low.The warm start played a role too, I'm sure. I don't think anyone envisioned last night staying as mixed as it did there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The warm start played a role too, I'm sure. I don't anyone envisioned last night staying as mixed as it did there.The 63 today was pretty crazy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The 63 today was pretty crazy.Midnight low? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Midnight low?Good shot. #47 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Looks like another 75+ nailbiter tomorrow. I'm guessing 75 on the button, then warmer Thu-Sat. We will have to wait until Sunday or Monday for the streak to end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The warm start played a role too, I'm sure. I don't think anyone envisioned last night staying as mixed as it did there. The column wasn't nearly as dry overnight below the boundary layer, compared to the previous night. The dewpoint at 4K feet over SLE was 35f this morning...compared to 10f yesterday morning. The moist (comparatively) air above wasn't as prone to mixing as the dry air of the previous morning. That's what it looks like to me anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Tomorrow night looks pretty chilly. Northerly surface gradients with fairly cool 850s. Overall the next two weeks are looking cool. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 GFS MOS has us back up near 80 by the day after tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 GFS MOS has us back up near 80 by the day after tomorrow.Hoorayfying. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Cooling off quickly out there tonight. Definitely a hint of fall in the air. Already down to 60 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 539 thicknesses and 2.1c next Monday on the 0z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 My local history guide (everyone's favorite) says there two likely paths from here... a complete descent into cold and rainy for fall (like off a cliff in 2012) or a period of variability with alternating periods of rainy and cool mixed with periods of dry and pleasant Note that pleasant does not always mean warm as temperatures start becoming dependent on inversions pretty soon. Staying warm and dry is not really an option from what I have seen. I really like seeing the deep trough showing up for next week. It will bring some needed rain and end the fire season and its early enough to possibly avoid the cliff scenario in October. No science here. Just what I have seen locally with a weak Nina following a long, dry summer. I think a fall like 2011 is more likely than a 2012 repeat. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 I think a fall like 2011 is more likely than a 2012 repeat.So warm overall turning colder in November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Nice and crisp at 48 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Nice and crisp at 48 this morning.Still waiting for that first sub 50 low at Shawnigan lake. Last one was June 23rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Still waiting for that first sub 50 low at Shawnigan lake. Last one was June 23rd. Should be one of the next few nights I would imagine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Still in the 50s as we move into mid morning. I love this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Someone said they were going to Lake Louise this week. Looks like it is snowing at higher elevations around there this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The 63 today was pretty crazy. Looks like they snuck in a 59 before midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Someone said they were going to Lake Louise this week. Looks like it is snowing at higher elevations around there this morning. There is some pretty cold air spreading into the interior of western Canada/the northern Rockies with this trough. Won't dig southwest quite enough to give us the really chilly stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The trough coming next week is looking like one of the most impressive September troughs in quite awhile for the West. And the 12z GFS has another deep trough following it days 9-10. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 The trough coming next week is looking like one of the most impressive September troughs in quite awhile for the West. And the 12z GFS has another deep trough following it days 9-10. Loving me some La Nina fall. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Loving me some La Nina fall.Helluva change from the first week of the month and the rest of the summer, which was basically devoid of troughs and precipitation. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Still 58 at home. About 61 down in the valley in Bothell. A nice break from the super warm mornings we've had lately. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Still can't believe how cold the models look for next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Long way to 75... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Long way to 75...You've been burned on this one about three times now. High of 75 sounds good for today. 63 as of 11am. Twelve degrees in six hours doesn't seem too outlandish with lots of sunshine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 You've been burned on this one about three times now. High of 75 sounds good for today.73. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 73. It's on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Acronym. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Looks like a 2013-ish pattern flip coming up. I'd take a repeat of that fall and winter... decent ENSO match too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 12Z ECMWF narrows the period with showers around with the incoming trough to just Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning. Its already fairly sunny again on Tuesday. Hope we can get enough rain to end the fire season. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 12Z ECMWF narrows the period with showers around with the incoming trough to just Sunday evening through early Tuesday morning. Its already fairly sunny again on Tuesday. Hope we can get enough rain to end the fire season.Odd development for the land of constant troughing... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 PDX also gunning for its first below average day since 8/24, when we posted a -1 crusher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Ensembles continue to support a general troughing signal for the West for the foreseeable future. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 Looks like they snuck in a 59 before midnight. This development devastated Brian Schmidt. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 I think a fall like 2011 is more likely than a 2012 repeat.I'm not sure 2011/12 is a good analog, though I guess it's similar to 2007/08 in the PNW, despite some clear mechanical differences on a hemispheric scale. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 PDX also gunning for its first below average day since 8/24, when we posted a -1 crusher. I remember that it was frigid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 13, 2017 Report Share Posted September 13, 2017 70! #justfivetogo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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