November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[umadbro]

What are the implications?

Mark Nelsen is,sharpening his forks and lighting the BBQ at the bottom of the cliff.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I’m a major nerd and saved all of the SWS’s and warnings from 2008...here is the first SWS from Dec 8th 2008...

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

315 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-

HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-

EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-

NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-

WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-

315 PM PST MON DEC 8 2008

 

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

 

A MAJOR CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEAR THE END OF

THIS WEEK...BRINGING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER

THE WEEKEND.

 

THE TRANSITION WILL GET UNDERWAY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD

FRONT AND ITS UPPER TROUGH SWING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...COLDER

AIR WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON OVER THE

WEEKEND.

 

WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING...AT LEAST DURING

THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS

WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. PEOPLE SHOULD BE READY FOR WEATHER THAT

IS COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICY ROADS...BURST OUTDOOR PIPES...AND

ENDANGER PETS.

 

THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND

OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED

SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

 

THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN

WASHINGTON LOWLANDS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS

TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR.

 

WESTERN WASHINGTON RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS SITUATION

UNFOLDS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISITING OUR WEB PAGE

AT WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE (ALL LOWERCASE).

MCDONNAL

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

Your nuts. I love it.

[MossMan]

Your nuts. I love it.

I won’t post many since they are so long but this is one of my favorites!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

1020 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2008

 

...A MAJOR DISRUPTIVE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT MOST OF WESTERN

WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

 

.A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INLAND OVER

WESTERN WASHINGTON STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING

THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...

HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND ICE BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED.

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-

WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-

TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-

LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-CENTRAL COAST-

1020 PM PST FRI DEC 19 2008

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAN JUAN...WESTERN

WHATCOM...AND WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTIES...EVERETT AND VICINITY...

SEATTLE...BREMERTON...TACOMA...ADMIRALTY INLET...HOOD CANAL...

AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREAS...AND THE CENTRAL COAST FROM 4 PM

SATURDAY TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY...

 

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO

4 PM PST SUNDAY.

 

A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. HEAVY SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND

THEN SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY

SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR ON THE KITSAP

PENINSULA...ALONG HOOD CANAL...AND FROM OLYMPIA AND CHEHALIS WEST

TO THE CENTRAL COAST NEAR OCEAN SHORES. 10 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW

IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE HOOD CANAL. OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN THIS

AREA SHOULD GET 5 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

 

ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR NORTH OF TACOMA...INCLUDING SEATTLE AND

EVERETT...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

WESTERN SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES SHOULD RECEIVE ABOUT 3 TO 5

INCHES OF SNOW. IN GENERAL...LIGHTER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE

CASCADE FOOTHILLS WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST ALONG THE

SHORES OF PUGET SOUND. SOME PARTS OF EASTERN KING COUNTY...WHERE

WIND IS A BIG THREAT...WILL RECEIVE 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

 

LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...LOCATIONS FROM TACOMA ON

SOUTH THROUGH LEWIS COUNTY AND WEST TO THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO

MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY IN

GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY. IF MORE

PRECIPITATION OCCURS IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN THAN SNOW...

THEN AN ICE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN

EXCESS OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY BUT

SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND. ICE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING POWER

LINES AND LARGE TREE BRANCHES TO SNAP AND CAUSE MAJOR TRAVEL

DISRUPTIONS.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

[Deweydog]

CFS backing off on December, but ballz to the wallz in January...

 

That would be the coldest January in almost a year!

[MossMan]

Your nuts. I love it.

Oh and a lovely Christmas morning... now I’m done haha!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008

EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-EVERETT AND VICINITY-

SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-

758 AM PST THU DEC 25 2008

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR WESTERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY...NORTH SEATTLE...AND THE

NORTH PART OF THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NORTH OF BELLEVUE...WHICH IS

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

 

A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH PUGET

SOUND AREA THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES

OF WET SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THE WARNING AREA EXTENDS

FROM ABOUT ARLINGTON SOUTHWARD TO NORTH SEATTLE...INCLUDING

EVERETT...AND EASTWARD TO THE CASCADES...INCLUDING THE NORTH

BELLEVUE TO REDMOND AREA...UP THROUGH SNOHOMISH AND BACK TO

ARLINGTON.

 

ABOUT 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW HAD FALLEN IN THE BOTHELL TO LAKE CITY

CORRIDOR AS OF 7 AM. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS AS THE

INDIVIDUAL SNOW BANDS WEAKEN AND ARE THEN REPLACED WITH A NEW BAND

OF SHOWERS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 1 PM.

 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THE REST OF TODAY...BUT ARE

NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE OR PERSISTENT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX

WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE ALL SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

THE HEAVY WET SNOW FALLING ON ALREADY SLOWLY MELTING SNOW WILL

MAKE SLUSHY MIX THAT CAN BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS FOR DRIVERS. THIS

IS A RECIPE FOR HYDROPLANING EVEN FOR MORE SNOW CAPABLE VEHICLES

IF YOU ARE DRIVING TOO FAST. WATER WILL TEND TO ACCUMULATE IN

RUTS ALREADY CARVED OUT BY PREVIOUS DRIVERS...SO UP TO TWO INCHES

OF STANDING WATER CAN MAKE HYDROPLANING MUCH MORE LIKELY. DRIVE

SLOWER AND MORE CAUTIOUSLY...AND BE PATIENT WITH DRIVERS OF LESS

CAPABLE VEHICLES.

 

IN ADDITION...THE WET SNOW WILL ADD MORE WEIGHT TO LARGE AMOUNTS

OF SNOW THAT HAVE ALREADY ACCUMULATED ON ROOFS. FLAT ROOF

ESPECIALLY MAY BE AT RISK TO SUFFER DAMAGE FROM THE WEIGHT OF

HEAVY DENSE SNOW.

[Eastvanisle]

Since we're talking about 2008:

[MossMan]

Since we're talking about 2008:100_0286.JPG

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody have video of some of KGW's forecasts for 2008, 2013-14?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 16 minutes!

Wind storm? Fog attack? Drizzle? Ridgy/warm? East wind? Flooding rains? Bigfoot invasion? No idea. None.

 

As always think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

[umadbro]

Anybody have video of some of KGW's forecasts for 2008, 2013-14?

YouTube probably does if you just look hard enough.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm a huge Pete Carroll fan, but that fake field goal was the worst play call I've ever seen on a football field. And we all know that's saying something.

 

It would be one thing if there were more time on the clock so we'd have a chance to pick up the first down and have a few shots at the end-zone. With 7 seconds left in the half, he needed to run 25 yards for the TD or else time would have run out and ended the half even if he did manage to pick up the first down.

 

Just inexcusably bad.

[The Swamp]

 

I'm a huge Pete Carroll fan, but that fake field goal was the worst play call I've ever seen on a football field. And we all know that's saying something.

 

It would be one thing if there were more time on the clock so we'd have a chance to pick up the first down and have a few shots at the end-zone. With 7 seconds left in the half, he needed to run 25 yards for the TD or else time would have run out and ended the half even if he did manage to pick up the first down.

 

Just inexcusably bad.

 

 

I think Pete is on his way out.

[Gradient Keeper]

 

I'm a huge Pete Carroll fan, but that fake field goal was the worst play call I've ever seen on a football field. And we all know that's saying something.

 

It would be one thing if there were more time on the clock so we'd have a chance to pick up the first down and have a few shots at the end-zone. With 7 seconds left in the half, he needed to run 25 yards for the TD or else time would have run out and ended the half even if he did manage to pick up the first down.

 

Just inexcusably bad.

 

Yeah, I agree, and word around the water cooler is Pete trusts the NAM over the ECMWF. I mean that is just inexcusable.

 

Go Falcons! Go Chiefs! GO Blazers! Go Ducks!

 

00z GFS in 9 minutes!

[MossMan]

Anybody have video of some of KGW's forecasts for 2008, 2013-14?

I have extensive coverage of 1996 from Seattle...but no KGW 2008, ect. Sorry.

[Front Ranger]

00z GFS in 16 minutes!

Wind storm? Fog attack? Drizzle? Ridgy/warm? East wind? Flooding rains? Bigfoot invasion? No idea. None.

 

As always think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

 

They were all wiped out by the historic trough earlier this month.

[Gradient Keeper]

They were all wiped out by the historic trough earlier this month.

Accurate.

 

00z GFS out to FCST HR 24 !

[Deweydog]

Anybody have video of some of KGW's forecasts for 2008, 2013-14?

I only have KPTV's, KATU's and KOIN's. Sorry.

[ShawniganLake]

A chilly 35F here this evening.

[Gradient Keeper]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I looked on YouTube. Plenty of snow videos from Dec 13' for Eugene. Also videos from February 2014 and January 2017. You want it you got it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 39 after a high of 51 early this morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm a huge Pete Carroll fan, but that fake field goal was the worst play call I've ever seen on a football field. And we all know that's saying something.

It would be one thing if there were more time on the clock so we'd have a chance to pick up the first down and have a few shots at the end-zone. With 7 seconds left in the half, he needed to run 25 yards for the TD or else time would have run out and ended the half even if he did manage to pick up the first down.

Just inexcusably bad.

Their schedule isn’t looking too good to finish the season, considering the key injuries they have.

[Jesse]

Down to 39 after a high of 51 early this morning. 

 

Pleazantly surprised at the clearing and cooling tonight. 43 here.

[Geos]

Getting colder than I thought tonight. Down to 38.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Classic November light/moderate rain pattern coming up.

[MossMan]

Getting colder than I thought tonight. Down to 38.

38 here as well. Figured we would have been in the torch-a-thon by now.

[Deweydog]

Classic November light/moderate rain pattern coming up.

Classic as in 1950's???

[GHweatherChris]

Down to 34 tonight and have some icy car roof tops currently. Not expected at all.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Since we're talking about 2008:100_0286.JPG

 

Where are you located? Looks like Dec 18th somewhere in the Nanoose - Qualicum area.

 

This was the scene next to the Strait of Georgia in Nanoose on Dec 18th:

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

38 here as well. Figured we would have been in the torch-a-thon by now.

850's briefly fell to around -1 this evening behind the cold front that moved through late this morning.

 

The torch begins in earnest and on schedule tomorrow though as the warm front moves quickly back North over us.

[Jbolin]

Before we look for the prospects for potential blocking/arctic air, in the day 4-8 period we need to look at the very real threat at a southerly wind event and possibly a significant regional wind storm. I've noticed a few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS have tinkered with this idea. Nice trough offshore. Additionally the exit jet looks fairly healthy 140-150kts with good jet support for continued strengthening all the way to the WA coast. The upper level pattern will be fairly conducive with a deep trough offshore and fairly strong jet streak rounding the base of the trough. Models will iron out the finer details in the coming days, but they have been very consistent with the overall 500mb pattern from the Coast to 150 W. We shall see...

Care to elaborate on this "potential" wind threat a bit more?

[Gradient Keeper]

Care to elaborate on this "potential" wind threat a bit more?

12z ECMWF today for next Monday showed a big wind storm for western WA/OR. Other runs of the GFS/CMC are fairly close to one also.

[Geos]

Where are you located? Looks like Dec 18th somewhere in the Nanoose - Qualicum area.

 

This was the scene next to the Strait of Georgia in Nanoose on Dec 18th:

 

 

 

Beautiful shots. 

 

Still dropping here. 38.0

[Deweydog]

OOz!

[MossMan]

OOz!

Oh 0h...

[bainbridgekid]

OOz!

Looks breezy next Monday.

 

[Front Ranger]

850's briefly fell to around -1 this evening behind the cold front that moved through late this morning.

 

The torch begins in earnest and on schedule tomorrow though as the warm front moves quickly back North over us.

 

Indeed. It will be a dramatic reversal.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seahawks suck!! Okay I feel better

[Parksvillewx]

Where are you located? Looks like Dec 18th somewhere in the Nanoose - Qualicum area.

 

This was the scene next to the Strait of Georgia in Nanoose on Dec 18th:

 

 

 

This was also in Nanoose, same day. 

 

 

In other news, 34.7F here now. Guessing that'll jump quite a bit when the moisture arrives.

[Eastvanisle]

Where are you located? Looks like Dec 18th somewhere in the Nanoose - Qualicum area.

 

This was the scene next to the Strait of Georgia in Nanoose on Dec 18th:

 

 

Just north, in Parksville- almost at the Englishmans River estuary