RentonHill Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary. That’s pre flight check Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. 1 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. I know it was way colder than any other models for a few runs, but didn't it get the general pattern of that ridge rapidly retrograding and then a kind of mini ridge dropping down driving the cold air south? It's just those really cold runs kept the second ridge ridge far enough west while it actually came closer to us. No other model showed that at first from what I remember. For the US as a whole the GFS was way farther off I thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. EPS was rock solid throughout that entire event. It never fell for the operational run silliness. Its also been very consistent lately. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: EPS was rock solid throughout that entire event. It never fell for the operational run silliness. Its also been very consistent lately. It was also only really two or three crazy operational runs. GFS and GEM had a bunch of random cold runs too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary. i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. Agreed. The EPS has consistently looked like this at the end of the run... we have a long way to go regardless of what silliness the GFS shows in the long range. Early February if it happens in my opinion. 1 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. Most likely a GFS false start. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Agreed. The EPS has consistently looked like this at the end of the run... we have a long way to go regardless of what silliness the GFS shows in the long range. Early February if it happens in my opinion. If this ends up happening then a 2018 scenario is best case. Early February torch though… 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 What Tim never comprehends is the eps is a smoothed mean of 51 ensemble members. Scouting out the scenarios of the individual members and looking for patterns and trends is a better way to look at the long range. But if it has troll possibilities we will always see these hour 360 maps. He posted them like once for two months, now they are back. We just need to be patient, once we stop seeing the maps we know the eps has improved. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What Tim never comprehends is the eps is a smoothed mean of 51 ensemble members. Scouting out the scenarios of the individual members and looking for patterns and trends is a better way to look at the long range. But if it has troll possibilities we will always see these hour 360 maps. He posted them like once for two months, now they are back. We just need to be patient, once we stop seeing the maps we know the eps has improved. And yet you are saying mid to late February and telling me I am wrong about the EPS and my prediction of early February. What you are saying is wrong. I actually post EPS maps all the time when its consistently cold in the long range. That is absolutely the best sign that its actually coming and that is when I get on board. My guess is we are about 10 days away from starting to see that on the EPS runs. The EPS is the best long range guide because its a smoothed mean of 51 members. When there is a consistent signal in the long range with a smoothed mean of 51 members then its very meaningful. Right now there is a consistently strong signal for western ridging in the long range. Likely will be the opposite in a week or two. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Stumbled across a good movie, probably a b movie but a great story. Called old Henry, it's a western and came out 2 years ago. Worth watching. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 I want snow and a chicken pot pie right now 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Speaking of the 12Z GFS, looks like 50-burgers for western Oregon on MLK Day! And maybe even a 60-burger or two for southern Oregon a few days before that! 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Speaking of the 12Z GFS, looks like 50-burgers for western Oregon on MLK Day! And maybe even a 60-burger or two for southern Oregon a few days before that! Fun fact SLE’s average high the last 5 Januaries is in the low 50s 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Starting to see some eye candy at least. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: This GFS may go somewhere. The ol Wendy’s double stack Alaskan ridge! The old piggy back move! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 9 hours ago, snow_wizard said: This is just straight up incredible. Extreme winter mins for Landsburg for 1919-20 through 1929-30. Keep in mind this general area has only done single digits on two days this century (both Nov 2010). 1919-20 = 3 1920-21 = 19 1921-22 = 6 1922-23 = 5 1923-24 = 10 1924-25 = 0 1925-26 = 20 1926-27 = 14 1927-28 = 9 1928-29 = 5 1929-30 = 7 Just amazing for this area! In addition to that amazing December 1922 Arctic blast that February 1923 snowstorm seems amazing 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Starting to see some eye candy at least. We have a pretty low bar right now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: I’m in the blue! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Have to like the end of the GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 hours ago, FroYoBro said: The weather looks really boring and mild for the next next two weeks. I hate January and I hate Dewey. I’ll come walk your dogs. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 Oh sh*t, Jesse’s back. Hide the knives! 1 3 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I hate when they rush the seasons along. The act like winter is over right after Christmas! well.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 It's coming 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Doinko said: It's coming Great to have the CFS on board. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary. The long range EPS at one point was showing a huge ridge over us the week after Christmas and buying. Not been impressed with its' performance lately. Though the other ensembles were also showing it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The long range EPS at one point was showing a huge ridge over us the week after Christmas and buying. Not been impressed with its' performance lately. Though the other ensembles were also showing it. Technically we did have a big ridge over us on Christmas. Although don't remember how long it showed the ridge sticking around. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 So the EPS is sketchy but the weeklies are ROCK SOLID. 3 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 The GEEFS mean last night sucked but the control sure got good. Nice blast with a reload coming in from the north. Eye candy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 26 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Oh sh*t, Jesse’s back. Hide the knives! I have really missed his downvotes on every post of mine. 1 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 The GEFS is far from terrible. Heights coming up big time over the NE Pacific. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 hours ago, MossMan said: Unfortunately the PNA dip looks to be short lived. Perhaps we will see a little slop during that period if the atmosphere cooperates. Fingers crossed for February. Even if that rise happens it would be brief in all likelihood. The EPS has been showing this and it's just a transitional thing leading to the good pattern. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 The models are more robust on the phase 2 MJO later in the month. That's about as Ninaish as it gets. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades. Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades. Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days. 35 in Omak, I don’t think it has been that warm in months. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 eps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: eps Thanks for posting. Looks like that rigging at the end is already retrograding. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2023 Report Share Posted January 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades. Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days. Low 30's at my property. But should still stay all snow there and keep piling up all week. Current view. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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