PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary.   

That’s pre flight check

[SilverFallsAndrew]

After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. 

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. 

I know it was way colder than any other models for a few runs, but didn't it get the general pattern of that ridge rapidly retrograding and then a kind of mini ridge dropping down driving the cold air south? It's just those really cold runs kept the second ridge ridge far enough west while it actually came closer to us. No other model showed that at first from what I remember. For the US as a whole the GFS was way farther off I thought

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After how poorly the euro performed in December, I’m done with it. 

EPS was rock solid throughout that entire event.    It never fell for the operational run silliness.    Its also been very consistent lately.  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS was rock solid throughout that entire event.    It never fell for the operational run silliness.    Its also been very consistent lately.  

It was also only really two or three  crazy operational runs. GFS and GEM had a bunch of random cold runs too.

[RentonHill]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary.   

i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. 

Agreed.   

The EPS has consistently looked like this at the end of the run... we have a long way to go regardless of what silliness the GFS shows in the long range.   Early February if it happens in my opinion.

 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

i'll add a clarification: I'm assuming the long range GFS is step 1 because it will jump the gun on any event by at least 1-2 weeks. So it will show something before EPS since EPS will probably get timing right-ish. 

Most likely a GFS false start. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Agreed.   

The EPS has consistently looked like this at the end of the run... we have a long way to go regardless of what silliness the GFS shows in the long range.   Early February if it happens in my opinion.

 

If this ends up happening then a 2018 scenario is best case. Early February torch though… 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What Tim never comprehends is the eps is a smoothed mean of 51 ensemble members. Scouting out the scenarios of the individual members and looking for patterns and trends is a better way to look at the long range. But if it has troll possibilities we will always see these hour 360 maps. He posted them like once for two months, now they are back. We just need to be patient, once we stop seeing the maps we know the eps has improved. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What Tim never comprehends is the eps is a smoothed mean of 51 ensemble members. Scouting out the scenarios of the individual members and looking for patterns and trends is a better way to look at the long range. But if it has troll possibilities we will always see these hour 360 maps. He posted them like once for two months, now they are back. We just need to be patient, once we stop seeing the maps we know the eps has improved. 

And yet you are saying mid to late February and telling me I am wrong about the EPS and my prediction of early February. 

What you are saying is wrong.   I actually post EPS maps all the time when its consistently cold in the long range.  That is absolutely the best sign that its actually coming and that is when I get on board.   My guess is we are about 10 days away from starting to see that on the EPS runs.   The EPS is the best long range guide because its a smoothed mean of 51 members.   When there is a consistent signal in the long range with a smoothed mean of 51 members then its very meaningful. 

Right now there is a consistently strong signal for western ridging in the long range.   Likely will be the opposite in a week or two. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Stumbled across a good movie, probably a b movie but a great story. Called old Henry, it's a western and came out 2 years ago. Worth watching. 

[SnowWillarrive]

I want snow and a chicken pot pie right now 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Speaking of the 12Z GFS, looks like 50-burgers for western Oregon on MLK Day!

And maybe even a 60-burger or two for southern Oregon a few days before that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Speaking of the 12Z GFS, looks like 50-burgers for western Oregon on MLK Day!

And maybe even a 60-burger or two for southern Oregon a few days before that!

Fun fact SLE’s average high the last 5 Januaries is in the low 50s

[snow_wizard]

Starting to see some eye candy at least.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

This GFS may go somewhere. The ol Wendy’s double stack Alaskan ridge!

The old piggy back move!

[Doinko]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This is just straight up incredible.  Extreme winter mins for Landsburg for 1919-20 through 1929-30.  Keep in mind this general area has only done single digits on two days this century (both Nov 2010).

1919-20 = 3

1920-21 = 19

1921-22 = 6

1922-23 = 5

1923-24 = 10

1924-25 = 0

1925-26 = 20

1926-27 = 14

1927-28 = 9

1928-29 = 5

1929-30 = 7

Just amazing for this area!

In addition to that amazing December 1922 Arctic blast that February 1923 snowstorm seems amazing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Starting to see some eye candy at least.

We have a pretty low bar right now. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m in the blue! 

[RentonHill]

Have to like the end of the GEFS

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, FroYoBro said:

The weather looks really boring and mild for the next next two weeks. 
 

I hate January and I hate Dewey. 

I’ll come walk your dogs.

[Deweydog]

Oh sh*t, Jesse’s back. Hide the knives!

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I hate when they rush the seasons along. The act like winter is over right after Christmas!

well..

[Doinko]

It's coming

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It's coming

 

Great to have the CFS on board. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The long range EPS is actually the first step necessary.   

The long range EPS at one point was showing a huge ridge over us the week after Christmas and buying.  Not been impressed with its' performance lately.   Though the other ensembles were also showing it.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The long range EPS at one point was showing a huge ridge over us the week after Christmas and buying.  Not been impressed with its' performance lately.   Though the other ensembles were also showing it.

 

 

Technically we did have a big ridge over us on Christmas.   Although don't remember how long it showed the ridge sticking around.

[Deweydog]

So the EPS is sketchy but the weeklies are ROCK SOLID.

[RentonHill]

The GEEFS mean last night sucked but the control sure got good. Nice blast with a reload coming in from the north. Eye candy

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oh sh*t, Jesse’s back. Hide the knives!

I have really missed his downvotes on every post of mine.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS is far from terrible.  Heights coming up big time over the NE Pacific.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Unfortunately the PNA dip looks to be short lived. Perhaps we will see a little slop during that period if the atmosphere cooperates. Fingers crossed for February. 

Even if that rise happens it would be brief in all likelihood.  The EPS has been showing this and it's just a transitional thing leading to the good pattern.

[snow_wizard]

The models are more robust on the phase 2 MJO later in the month.  That's about as Ninaish as it gets.

[snow_wizard]

It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades.  Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades.  Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days.

35 in Omak, I don’t think it has been that warm in months. 

[RentonHill]

eps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

eps

Thanks for posting. Looks like that rigging at the end is already retrograding.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It definitely appears the cold air has been taken out east of the Cascades.  Pretty astonishing warming over the last two days.

Low 30's at my property.  But should still stay all snow there and keep piling up all week. Current view.