The recent 3 year La Niña stored a huge load of heat within the IPWP, which was suddenly released en masse during the strong El Niño.
People blame the 1998 super niño for the subsequent “jump” in baseline global temps at the turn of the century, but in reality it was the 3+ year niña from 1999-2001 that sequestered all that heat in the IPWP.
Same with that massive 3+ year niña from 1973/74 - 1975/76. What followed was the great pacific climate shift of 1976, and a subsequent jump in global temperatures.
We need only look to CERES data to see how radiative emission to space increases during El Niño, and decreases during La Niña.
Except CERES data indicates aerosol forcing had little to do with it.
The SST warming wasn’t even focused in the areas where the reduction in aerosols occurred..the NPAC warm blob is the smallest it’s been in a decade, and the ATL warming is focused in the tropics, not the extratropical waters.
And that was with El Niño doing its best to keep that heat out of the lower-48.
This summer there’s nothing to stop things from going the way of the 1930s. I don’t see a way out.
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