PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Coldest February since the 1700s incoming 

now wouldn't that be an experience to have the opportunity to live thru...

[Slushy Inch]

Heights still lowering...

[Deweydog]

Only “issue” at the moment is the fact the HB vortex is rock solid. 

[Doinko]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Weatherbell being funky but here it is. I can’t see temps for some reason 

[snow_wizard]

That second shot is the real deal.  Brrrrrr!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Only “issue” at the moment is the fact the HB vortex is rock solid. 

How much does that limit potential for us?

[SpaceRace22]

Next couple frames are going to be outrageous.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only “issue” at the moment is the fact the HB vortex is rock solid. 

There's a lot going on that could change that.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Three of us posted the same frame at the same time

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Jaw dropper.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

East 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

 Could use a little shift west. But I see no stopping that pattern.

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Gonna be a long week.

So f*cking long. Gdi

[Phil]

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

[snow_wizard]

Fraser River air blasts to Portland and beyond on this run.

[Doinko]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Dang!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Who likes KOLD

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

It may be a slow transition. But I have come to terms with the idea of a possible El Nino.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

Tonga

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Fraser River air blasts to Portland and beyond on this run.

First shot looks like a more Gorge based one and then a big Fraser River one on this run. Something for everyone!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

Going to be hard to top this run.  Wow!

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

I would think you would be hoping for something different after the last 3 summers.  

[Phil]

Even with the thermocline shoaled/depressed in the WPAC, it is meaningless if trades continue to rage.

A legitimate boreal spring WWB could easily change the picture as the thermocline is ripe for a DOKW, but usually there’s some indication of weakness in the La Niña cell by now, and I’m just not seeing it yet.

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks good!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9.5 850s legit regional arctic blast

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Going to be hard to top this run.  Wow!

More snow would top it... but it was pretty epic overall.  

[snow_wizard]

These blasts that are straight from the north usually do well for snow and overperforming cold for Seattle.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Going to be hard to top this run.  Wow!

I only get an inch of snow! It can be topped.

[Deweydog]

Can only get worse from here!

 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Heights are falling again as another polar lobe strengthens. Just nutty. Shift just a little west, add a little cyclogenesis and we get buried.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

[Gradient Keeper]

If you think that was good, just wait. Colder runs ahead. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes. Will the GFS finally correct itself latching onto the more likely GEM/ECMWF solution? No idea. Stay tuned!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

Totally agreed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

February. Knows what month it is.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If you think that was good, just wait. Colder runs ahead. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes. Will the GFS finally correct itself latching onto the more likely GEM/ECMWF solution? No idea. Stay tuned!

I'm good if this is as good as gets from a 500mb perspective.

[RentonHill]

EPS day 5 vs 12z

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

February. Knows what month it is.

The real kicker is it starts this month.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2/95 vibes.

Wasn't that a quick hitter in an otherwise warm month?    This seems more persistent.

[Deweydog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

February. Knows what month it is.

January

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHill said:

EPS day 5 vs 12z

Wowwwww!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm good if this is as good as gets from a 500mb perspective.

500mb can't get much better than that I'll agree with you there.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

[BLI snowman]

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st.