Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Gfs ensembles at 120 are in pretty good agreement https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017121612&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z GEFS trends in the last 4 runs...more HP to the north and focusing energy to the south.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Does your family have a place out there?Yep they own a house in Surprize. They’re contemplating moving here to MN to be closer to their first grandchild, but they may reconsider when they feel the arctic blast. Ha! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Yep they own a house in Surprize. They’re contemplating moving here to MN to be closer to their first grandchild, but they may reconsider when they feel the arctic blast. Ha!Ah, yes...Surprise is in the NW Valley...do you go out there often??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 GEM & GFS tossing out 5-6 for me. Definitely liking the trends but wish it wasn't 5 days out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Chances of a White Christmas are on the rise... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Euro coming in north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 I will be so pissed if the Minnesota posters here get it and we don't. No offense to anyone but we deserve this more then you guys do lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Euro coming in northLooks the same to me. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Looks the same to me. 850 line cuts through mn and south central wi 997 in KS at 120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 12z EURO looks weaker with the northern energy, a tad. That might help the secondary low come north. I may be wrong though lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Not liking the trends today but such a long ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 I hate rain-snow changeovers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 I’m going with no snowlover and say no measurable snow in my area through December and 2.7 in for the winter.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 1002 L just west of Chicago at 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Gary Lezac said once we get past Sunday the storm should get past an area that is terrible for models to predict, so at least by tomorrow night we should get a little clearer signal. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 From hr 120 to hr 144 the southern piece goes from central Kansas east to Chicago.....that should be a great track for everyone along I-80. Can’t wait to see precip map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 From hr 120 to hr 144 the southern piece goes from central Kansas east to Chicago.....that should be a great track for everyone along I-80. Can’t wait to see precip map.yeah but are temp profiles cold enough? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 EURO looks much different after the first system and even back building in the west of a trough. That would be nice. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 yeah but are temp profiles cold enough?Great question.....I’m only seeing the slp track, that will be a big player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Started a storm thread for the Winter Solstice storm.. http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1698-the-winter-solstice-storm/?p=285362 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 gosaints to gb area gets crushed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Depressing model runs today for my area. I still hold out hope that I catch the southern edge of this though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Depressing model runs today for my area. I still hold out hope that I catch the southern edge of this though.EURO looks good for much of Nebraska and Iowa still, just went north like 20 miles a bit, the same placement it had yesterday at 12z. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Looks like Euro shows generally 2-3" mainly along and north of I-80, with some 4" amounts in extreme northeast Nebraska near Sioux City and then into NW Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Ah, yes...Surprise is in the NW Valley...do you go out there often???I honestly don’t go as often as I should. But I’ll be out there a few times in 2018. Mostly later in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 haven't seen the second big storm that was supposed to hit the majority of the forum around Christmas for a while now. not surprising if it's going to get really cold, everything is going to be shoved way south. people are excited for extreme cold and 50 below wind chills , but then the main storm track will not be anywhere close to the majority of us(congrats to Okwx though). I sincerely thank you buddy. It's been a long time coming for me especially when I've known where this pattern was headed awhile ago. I'm excited to finally get to see it play out again. White Christmas 2017 looks solid as ever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 We've been overperforming by a few degrees recently, and today is no different. We just hit 50. I went to Cedar Lake for a little birding walk. The lake is 95+% iced over, but there was still a flock of 1000+ Canada geese and mallards. I actually felt a bit warm in my winter coat because the wind was calm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 We've been overperforming by a few degrees recently, and today is no different. We just hit 50. I went to Cedar Lake for a little birding walk. The lake is 95+% iced over, but there was still a flock of 1000+ Canada geese and mallards. I actually felt a bit warm in my winter coat because the wind was calm.So much hype about a historic/wall to wall winter and little to show for it. It has been a good start in a relatively small zone, namely Michigan. Things should get better (has to, lol) but really can't afford to lose so much of December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 So much hype about a historic/wall to wall winter and little to show for it. It has been a good start in a relatively small zone, namely Michigan. Things should get better (has to, lol) but really can't afford to lose so much of December.Spot on post! Tom's call for a fast-n-furious start has played out perfectly for a few of us only. Now I need that melting Snowman emoji tho, LOL! Temps really soared into the upper 30's today. With full sun it feels like spring outside, especially after having 1 deg just 2 mornings ago. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Chances of a White Christmas are on the rise... The way we're torching already today, it's not looking good here presuming that SMI is that high due to current snow OTG?? Melting hard out there and possibly 3 more days of warmth to get thru. Would be nice if these patterns weren't so dang bi-polar! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Dang, congrats! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.Awesome! Putting in good use the "Land of 10,000 Lakes".... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 Currently some light snow falling and temps is @ 27F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.I know I've probably said it before but I am definitely envious of you. Lol. That would be so much fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 16, 2017 Report Share Posted December 16, 2017 The 2017/2018 rink has been shoveled. Still a bit of snow left on the right side but took me 3 hours to do this today. Boards and hockey nets go in tomorrow. Man I love winter here.May I ask what lake? (Phalen or Owasso is my guess)-- I grew up in New Brighton on Long Lake and did the same thing ( ice rink) for a long time and still might when I visit my moms here in a few weeks. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gfs ens members are further north with cut off low hammering us Christmas eve. Reg gfs run came north too. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 May I ask what lake? (Phalen or Owasso is my guess)-- I grew up in New Brighton on Long Lake and did the same thing ( ice rink) for a long time and still might when I visit my moms here in a few weeks.Oh nice. I’m actually between Phalen and Owasso. I’m on Lake McCarrons on the border of Roseville, Maplewood and St Paul. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted December 17, 2017 Report Share Posted December 17, 2017 Lurker here...I thought I’d chime in to say that you are very close to me. I’m near Beaver lake on the east side of STP. I have ridden my bike around McCarrons many times. How thick is the ice? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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