January Weather In the PNW

[Phil]

This is bonkers. Storm surge flooding came into Winthrop Massachusetts, then it just froze over. Wtf?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/wx1box/status/949266115372507137?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

[Deweydog]

This is bonkers. Storm surge flooding came into Winthrop Massachusetts, then it just froze over. Wtf?

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/wx1box/status/949266115372507137?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

Flash freeze!

[Jesse]

Did you know that when it snows my eyes become large and the light that you shine can be seen?

You just sealed this winter’s fate.

[Deweydog]

You just sealed this winter’s fate.

I'm a little worried the perceived bust-factor may produce some serious scarring.

[MossMan]

Flash freeze!

I remember those from my younger years.

[MossMan]

He's usually pretty accurate with his predictions. I'm hoping he's wrong on this one. It goes in line with what the CPC is predicting though.

Welp that will write an end to this winter season. But it will kick off an early jetsking season!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wish it had the 850's, as it is hard to tell if there is a motherload of cold air there or not. Also, the ECMWF monthly forecast for February just came out, not looking good for cold.

 

DSzz5OwU0AEn89E.jpg

I just saw this on Twitter. Have to see what the 500mb map looks like but it's not looking promising at the moment.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Welp that will write an end to this winter season. But it will kick off an early jetsking season!

You got that right!

[High Desert Mat!]

Yes, but then again, the MJO/tropical forcing that’s producing this pattern change won’t be located over the Indo/Maritime domain forever..eventually it’ll propagate back over the Pacific again..probably in late January.

 

I really want to see equatorward-shifted WPAC forcing this time, rather than the expanded/off-equator WPAC forcing that’s been so problematic lately. If not, I’m not sure how we’ll get there. Maybe a SSW could shake things up enough to make something happen (it would certainly pull forcing equatorward).

After all the predictions and the lol's, how can we say now that you're going to be right? There's a reason Mark Nelsen doesn't do "longer" forecasting predictions. It's usually always sometimes wrong. If I forecasted the weather in Portland I'd just say it's going to be showery everyday. That way I keep my job because I'm going to be right 65% of the time!!!!!

[umadbro]

After all the predictions and the lol's, how can we say now that you're going to be right? There's a reason Mark Nelsen doesn't do "longer" forecasting predictions. It's usually always sometimes wrong. If I forecasted the weather in Portland I'd just say it's going to be showery everyday. That way I keep my job because I'm going to be right 65% of the time!!!!!

That's a solid "D" right there.

[Guest Dome Buster]

 

That's a solid "D" right there.[/quote

 

I'll give him a B for Banya.

[High Desert Mat!]

Clever?

[Front Ranger]

Seems like Jesse gets to live rent-free in your head... nice deal.

 

I get to live rent free under his skin!

[Front Ranger]

Did you know that when it snows my eyes become large and the light that you shine can be seen?

 

Go ahead, compare him to a kiss from one of Tim's flowers.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I just noticed the 12z ECMWF from earlier today shows pretty strong gust for much of the NW next Thursday afternoon. Looks like gust up to 65 mph possible west of the Cascades in some lowland spots, even stronger at the coast. Have to keep a close eye out for this.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just noticed the 12z ECMWF from earlier today shows pretty strong gust for much of the NW next Thursday afternoon. Looks like gust up to 65 mph possible west of the Cascades in some lowland spots, even stronger at the coast. Have to keep a close eye out for this.

Yeah. Nice find. Definitely.

[Deweydog]

I just noticed the 12z ECMWF from earlier today shows pretty strong gust for much of the NW next Thursday afternoon. Looks like gust up to 65 mph possible west of the Cascades in some lowland spots, even stronger at the coast. Have to keep a close eye out for this.

Bomb cyclone!!!

[Front Ranger]

Models keep pushing back the onset of any active jet pattern.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah. Nice find. Definitely.

Bomb cyclone!!!

It would be crazy if this verified on January 11. Same day as last year's monster snowstorm.

[Deweydog]

#sunnyMLK?

[Phil]

After all the predictions and the lol's, how can we say now that you're going to be right? There's a reason Mark Nelsen doesn't do "longer" forecasting predictions. It's usually always sometimes wrong. If I forecasted the weather in Portland I'd just say it's going to be showery everyday. That way I keep my job because I'm going to be right 65% of the time!!!!!

I’m wrong sometimes, plus this winter season has been a giant basket of wtf’s like I’ve never seen before.

 

The system has been been teetering on the edge of flipping the QBO/z-cell mode but just refuses to complete the job, so we’ve got this bizarre system of waves plus the weird residual off-equator Pacific SST warmth resulting from the skipped -QBO last year.

 

So..I’m about ready to throw my hands up. All I can say with certainty is that the EPO/High Arctic block will probably return within 2-3 weeks, and the US blowtorch is probably temporary. Other than that..lol.

[Kayla]

Models keep pushing back the onset of any active jet pattern.

 

Sure looks like the pattern is now trending towards resetting itself into the pattern we just came out of.

[MossMan]

The big snow is coming in a few weeks...Seattle road crews are already prepping.

[Everett-Snow]

That's hilarious!

[Deweydog]

Just watched Deliverance for the first time in probably 25 years so, you know, things could be worse...

[Guest El nina]

Went up to mountain Hood on Wednesday and the snowpack is really sad. There was less snow now than October. It's time for a good mountain snow pattern.

[HighlandExperience]

Bomb cyclone!!!

Twc will name it dewey

[Phil]

The big snow is coming in a few weeks...Seattle road crews are already prepping.

My sides hurt.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the Pacific gets totally shut down again on the 0z GFS.  Blocking looks to be setting up in a much more favorable area for us than what we have seen for most of the winter.

[Geos]

The big snow is coming in a few weeks...Seattle road crews are already prepping.

 

Omg, that's too funny! 

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Finally all the ice that was on the trees and everything in between has melted, however the damage to trees and branches was already done lots of trees look bend and weird looking now. It's amazing how resilient evergreen trees are and go back to their shape, I haven't been on here in months thought I'd post something. I'm just north of Abbotsford in Mission B.C. and elevation wise 440feet. More precip. than Abbotsford being only 10 miles away. Anyways a little late but happy New year to everyone BTW we still have about 3 inches of snow on the ground since Dec. 19th here.

[stuffradio]

Looks like the Pacific gets totally shut down again on the 0z GFS.  Blocking looks to be setting up in a much more favorable area for us than what we have seen for most of the winter.

The day after tomorrow!

[snow_wizard]

The big snow is coming in a few weeks...Seattle road crews are already prepping.

 

If you look closely at this somebody had to have spent a lot of time making that.  Utterly hilarious though!

[Deweydog]

Looks like the Pacific gets totally shut down again on the 0z GFS. Blocking looks to be setting up in a much more favorable area for us than what we have seen for most of the winter.

Totally shutdown?

[Phil]

This can’t be right..there’s no Greenland death vortex.

 

[MossMan]

This La Niña will be like the Seahawks this year, a crap fest until 30 seconds left before halftime (Christmas) then multiple missed kicks wide right by Walsh in the 3rd quarter (cold air getting kicked right east after bouncing off the Rockies) then a major comeback with 1:20 left in the 4th quarter to take the lead (massive arctic blast in February. Then the opponent drives right down the field and scores and wins. (it rains for the next 4 months straight)

[Dave]

Just watched Deliverance for the first time in probably 25 years so, you know, things could be worse...

It ain't nothin but the biggest f*ckin river in the state,

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This can’t be right..there’s no Greenland death vortex.

If that verifies, what are the implications?

[TT-SEA]

This La Niña will be like the Seahawks this year, a crap fest until 30 seconds left before halftime (Christmas) then multiple missed kicks wide right by Walsh in the 3rd quarter (cold air getting kicked right east after bouncing off the Rockies) then a major comeback with 1:20 left in the 4th quarter to take the lead (massive arctic blast in February. Then the opponent drives right down the field and scores and wins. (it rains for the next 4 months straight)

 

Very good analogy.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure looks like the pattern is now trending towards resetting itself into the pattern we just came out of.

It wouldn't surprise me if so.

 

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0z ECMWF in 19 minutes