February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jbolin]

Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0Jynoflzo

[BLI snowman]

Not bad, considering this just isn't our year.

 

 

Yeah, troughs are pretty rare these days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z in progress!

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS is 6mb stronger and further West with the block at hour 156.

 

No telling what it will do in the longer range, but that can't be a bad thing.

 

12z:

 

18z:

[Front Ranger]

Yep, definite improvement in the mid range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is slightly improved.

[snow_wizard]

It looks like we're locking this thing in now.  Just minor differences in detail 18z vs 12z.

[BLI snowman]

It's a touch milder, actually.

[snow_wizard]

Using a 1971-2000 baseline for SSTs, it’s easy to see the expanded Hadley Cell signature that’s dominated the winter so far (warm SSTAs ~ 30N/30S). Also, the Baffin Bay vortex has advected lots of warm water into the North Atlantic on SW winds. Goes to show how the ocean circulation itself can matter more than atmospheric temperatures.

 

 

That’s actually a legitimately exothermic North Atlantic right now. Big time relief of the thermal load over the remainder of 2018.

 

Hopefully this new pattern coming up will reconfigure the Pacific SST's to more of a -PDO.  That should help wipe out some of the warmth around 30N...at least in the eastern part of the basin.

[High Desert Mat!]

18z GFS is 6mb stronger and further West with the block at hour 156.

 

No telling what it will do in the longer range, but that can't be a bad thing.

 

12z:

18z:

7mb*

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  A reload just on the heels of the big blast.  This is looking potentially top tier for a late season cold wave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's a touch milder, actually.

 

This ends up OK

 

[bainbridgekid]

It's a touch milder, actually.

Only for a few frames around day 8..

 

It's colder at day 7 and colder at days 9-10. More moisture too.

[snow_wizard]

To me the situation at day 9 or 10 looks like it's not going anywhere anytime soon.  Really exciting.

[snow_wizard]

All I can say is the folks in Whatcom County had better break out the heavy coats.  Just one round of Fraser outflow after another.

[snow_wizard]

OMG this run is cold!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not quite as good as the EURO from an upper level perspective, but close. 

[snow_wizard]

Not quite as good as the EURO from an upper level perspective, but close. 

 

The way it sustains the cold is really noteworthy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The way it sustains the cold is really noteworthy.

 

Yes the EPS seems to sustain the cold too. Given how sustained upper level warmth has been I think a week or two of cold troughing would only be fair. 

[Deweydog]

Looks like it could be chilly for a few days.

 

Snow???

 

Stay tuned! LOL!

[snow_wizard]

Yes the EPS seems to sustain the cold too. Given how sustained upper level warmth has been I think a week or two of cold troughing would only be fair. 

 

It certainly goes that way sometimes.  1962 had an utter torch for quite some time before the late Feb / early March cold wave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a nice Mountain snow pattern setting up in the long range. 

[Esquimalt]

A significant snowstorm at hour 276 for pretty much everywhere north of Portland.  Incredible!!

[TT-SEA]

We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas.

 

If the models keep trending these lows to dive further south off the coast and down to Coos Bay or further south then it'll be even more exciting but the trend has been N/S this winter bigtime. Revenge for last year.

[Timmy]

We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.

Easy

[Farmboy]

Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas.

Dude...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.

 

Are you okay?

[James Jones]

Have you guys learned nothing from Dr. East Wind Density? Discussing a possible weather event before Mark Nelsen has written a blog post about it is ******* retarded.

[Jbolin]

We are way beyond any false hopes we have seen in the models this winter. This is going to happen.

What have you done with Tim?

[TT-SEA]

Are you okay?

The SSW event will end up being the key to success. We are within day 7 and all the models agree. Its going to happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just got home and 18z looks great. Let's keep moving timing ahead on 00z runs tonight.

 

--

00z GFS in 3 hours 58 minutes

00z GEM in 4 hours 22 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 17 minutes

[Esquimalt]

Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome.  As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The SSW event will end up being the key to success. We are within day 7 and all the models agree. Its going to happen.

I concur!!  AS I have shared I believe this is our best chance that we have seen all winter. I haver very little doubt for many reasons. Stoked!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not to mention we often do well with these SSW events when they first happen.  In this case the pattern is doing a 180 degree reversal.  Given where we have been that can only be good.

This the catalyst we have needed all winter to really make things happen. I am pumped more than ever!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome.  As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions 

 

Nice to see another capital region poster, assuming your not from some other Esquimalt? This winter is screwing with Phil, so it's a sure bet that if he makes an early prediction the opposite will happen; it's one of the best correlations we have. Mega-blast on the way.

 

On another note, it's interesting how long the ridge has maintained it's position just offshore. It failed to come ashore like most of the models were predicted and has been hanging around at almost the same location since Feb 1st.

[van city]

Well it'll at least be a chilly rain here. Haven't had that since Christmas.

If the models keep trending these lows to dive further south off the coast and down to Coos Bay or further south then it'll be even more exciting but the trend has been N/S this winter bigtime. Revenge for last year.

Move.

[Phil]

Nothing is set in stone, but everything looks awesome. As for what Phil said about a dramatic model shift, let's hope he's as wrong as he was about his January megablast predictions

I was talking about Eurasia, FWIW.

[Phil]

Nice to see another capital region poster, assuming your not from some other Esquimalt? This winter is screwing with Phil, so it's a sure bet that if he makes an early prediction the opposite will happen; it's one of the best correlations we have. Mega-blast on the way.

 

On another note, it's interesting how long the ridge has maintained it's position just offshore. It failed to come ashore like most of the models were predicted and has been hanging around at almost the same location since Feb 1st.

Ain’t that the truth.

[epiceast]

Bummer we lost our snowpack here before this, this, it all melted during warm January(Although it snowed 6" last Thursday Night which is getting blown around right now to somewhere between 0 and 1). Nonetheless, I'm very stoked for the lowlanders!