February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

This will go down as the most amazing model riding winter ever from hrs 240-360 and beyond.  Songs will be written, poems read, movies made like The Day after Hour 240 which is already in production. History books for classrooms will read with mouths open and eyes wide how the world came to a paralyzing halt at hr 240.  Fathers will sit their sons on their knees and tell them of the model riding winter of '17-'18 and what it was like to experience the virtual snow and cold at such distant hours. “Dad, please tell me the story again on how much cold and snow we were gonna have at hrs 240”!  Trembling with such emotion the dad told his story yet again.  You could feel and sense the cold and snow on your skin as they gazed at the saved screen shots of our best crafted and designed models like the GFS, NAM, ICON, GEM, EWMCF, WRF, HRRR, IRS,  AARP, B&B (Birds and Bloom), GD (golf digest, TL (Travel and Leisure), Depends for Weather Geeks, and others at hours 120, 240, and 360.   Some even thought they could see next Nov. ’18 already on their computer screen and tremble with anticipation and see that it will be ENSO neutral (which btw gives us better chances of snow statistically so start riding NOW).  Never the less,  Epic.  Legendary.  Historic.  1950, couldn't hold a candle to what the models put upon us the angst created.  The Democrats have a book coming out that says that if it weren’t for Russian meddling on our computers it would have happened for real and its suspected Hilary would have won if it weren’t so.  President Trump blames the model riding on lack of evidence for model GW. 

Thank God for this last week.  Faith has been restored and all is well.  The Universe is reset for another year.  I see a wet cold spring at hour 720.  Hope it stops my moss from growing.  What do the models show? Hmmmm.  I see . . . . . .

I’ll give the actual winter a C until this last week (A+) as I only got 1/16” of sleet on Christmas Eve and managed about 5” this last week combined but it was the Model riding winter of ‘17-18” that gets the true A+.  I did a whole lot of model riding for 4 months to get 5” of snow.  I do happen to like rain storms when atmospheric rivers set up so not all was lost for me and helped my grade of a C. 

Read the story to me again, Dad.  Lets do this all again next fall Dad.  I can’t wait!  

Back to running my sled on the rivers to catch steelhead and salmon.  Oh wait, the rivers are too low now to run my sled.  d**n snow and cold. Curse you.

 

Truth be known sometimes the model riding is as fun as an event actually happening...well almost.  If January could have delivered something this would have been a really solid winter for most of us.  As it is, I can live with it at least.  This cold snap has really been something for this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

Even though the temp rose to 43 here today it was still well below normal.  The next 3 days look to be decently chilly with a couple of solidly cold nights.  Probably 20s for many places again.

[HighlandExperience]

[Jesse]

Even though the temp rose to 43 here today it was still well below normal. The next 3 days look to be decently chilly with a couple of solidly cold nights. Probably 20s for many places again.

Sort of annoying that PDX bumped to 50. Only major station in the I-5 corridor to do so today. I was hoping they could make it through the end of the month with a clean sweep of 40s. They were due for some overachievement, though.

 

48/34 here today.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting.  Somehow in the midst of all this I missed a very legit snow chance Tuesday morning.  The NWS is actually going for a one word forecast for the EPSL Tuesday morning...Snow.  Looks like water EQ will only be good for a half inch to an inch though.

[snow_wizard]

January failed us. We can only imagine this pattern starting January 1st. My gut tells me we are done with snow until next season. It’s been a fun ride though

 

We'll see.  It's pretty easy to get snow in March with cold convective showers.  Snow in March is actually reasonably common, just not the big long lasting type.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interesting.  Somehow in the midst of all this I missed a very legit snow chance Tuesday morning.  The NWS is actually going for a one word forecast for the EPSL Tuesday morning...Snow.  Looks like water EQ will only be good for a half inch to an inch though.

You are slipping old man!

[snow_wizard]

Sort of annoying that PDX bumped to 50. Only major station in the I-5 corridor to do so today. I was hoping they could make it through the end of the month with a clean sweep of 40s. They were due for some overachievement, though.

 

48/34 here today.

 

I noticed that.  They have done very well with this event though...especially considering the cold all came from the north.

[snow_wizard]

You are slipping old man!

 

Yup.  Really hard to imagine missing a likely shot like that.

[wx_statman]

Pretty severe cold snap looks set to affect west-central Europe in the next several days. Trier is forecast to have highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens, which I have to imagine is unusual considering their climo is not all that different than ours. Maybe just a tad cooler.

 

I read earlier today that France is expecting its biggest late season cold wave since 2005. There was a long-lasting cold wave from late February to early March that year in western Europe, caused by the same unusual jet stream configuration that brought us all those sunny and warm days. 

[snow_wizard]

I read earlier today that France is expecting its biggest late season cold wave since 2005. There was a long-lasting cold wave from late February to early March that year in western Europe, caused by the same unusual jet stream configuration that brought us all those sunny and warm days. 

 

But this time we are cold at the same time they are.  No question things have evolved since 2005....thank God!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty surprised to hear PDX hit 50. Didn't expect 40 today up here either. Definitely lost a few inches of snow since this morning.

[wx_statman]

Pretty surprised to hear PDX hit 50. Didn't expect 40 today up here either. Definitely lost a few inches of snow since this morning.

 

Too much sun today. Doesn't take much to hit 50 by this point in the winter. 

[Prairiedog]

I peaked at 46f but already back down to 39f.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too much sun today. Doesn't take much to hit 50 by this point in the winter. 

 

True, and it is still 2-3 degrees below average.

[MossMan]

I’m hoping to avoid the big “40” for at least a few more days!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I’m hoping to avoid the big “40” for at least a few more days!

 

I'm hoping to avoid it for a few more years, considering I'm still early 30s I like my odds.

[Jesse]

Too much sun today. Doesn't take much to hit 50 by this point in the winter.

What are some of the longest stretches of sub-50 highs going into the end of February? I was thinking 11 in a row might have been close to some sort of record but maybe that has been outdone by other years.

 

I only ask because I know you have that program set up that makes finding stats like that relatively easy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few stats. 

 

I have had measurable snow 7 days in a row....Decent chance I have some tomorrow evening and early Monday AM to stretch it to 9.

 

Today broke a streak of 6 sub 40 highs.

 

17.7" of snow for February. My 3rd snowiest month since I've lived here, and now the snowiest February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m hoping to avoid the big “40” for at least a few more days!

 

I'm hoping to avoid it for at least 6 1/2 years...

[GHweatherChris]

I'm hoping to avoid it for at least 6 1/2 years...

Uugghh, I can only avoid it for another 4 months.

[MossMan]

Uugghh, I can only avoid it for another 4 months.

I’m a year past that benchmark unfortunately.

[Geos]

Cooling off nicely with some clearing. At 36 now. Would be nice to get into the low 30s before midnight. Topped at 42 today. The little bit of snow disappeared late morning.

[Deweydog]

What are some of the longest stretches of sub-50 highs going into the end of February? I was thinking 11 in a row might have been close to some sort of record but maybe that has been outdone by other years.

 

I only ask because I know you have that program set up that makes finding stats like that relatively easy.

2011 had one 50 degree day at the airport from 2-15 to 3-2.

[Jesse]

2011 had one 50 degree day at the airport from 2-15 and 3-2.

Good find. I guess that was a somewhat similar stretch to this one. I remember we were talking about some of the similarities to that year in regard to the mid-January torch as well.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm 38 with a dp of 31 keep that temp dropping

[Deweydog]

Good find. I guess that was a somewhat similar stretch to this one. I remember we were talking about some of the similarities to that year in regard to the mid-January torch as well.

Seemed like a sensible progression. We managed to get our in one bag just before we go from considering this a backloaded winter as opposed to just a cold spring.

[wx_statman]

What are some of the longest stretches of sub-50 highs going into the end of February? I was thinking 11 in a row might have been close to some sort of record but maybe that has been outdone by other years.

 

I only ask because I know you have that program set up that makes finding stats like that relatively easy.

 

Good question. For sub-49 streaks, there are three that jump out above all the others:

 

18 days ending 3-1-1956

17 days ending 3-12-1951

17 days ending 3-3-1993

 

If you include readings at 50, then 1956 ended a 39 day streak on March 1st. There's nothing else like it in PDX records, at least for late winter. I actually got curious and checked some stations with longer POR's. Looks like Salem had a 31 day streak with sub-50 maximums that ran until March 15th in 1917. That year had a ton of cold & snow in late Feb as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 33 under cloudy skies...

[Geos]

Sweet. 34 already.

[MossMan]

Sweet. 34 already.

34 here as well.

[seattleweatherguy]

36 here with a dp of 30

[Winterdog]

34F here as well. I think things could get interesting for awhile tonight.

[luminen]

Very light rain here.

[MossMan]

Looking good still!

[seattleweatherguy]

How's the nam and gfs looking? Olive garden wifi sucks

[Brennan]

Olive garden sucks... period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

33.6 here with dewpoint of 30. Going to be close here tonight for snow instead of rain. I went for drive in the olympics and it was starting to snow at 800ft. Way lower than forecast says.

[Phil]

Olive garden sucks... period.

[Jbolin]

00Z GFS has a 984mb low on Thursday, windstorm anyone?