Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 We all do it even me, but the only reason we use that ratio more then any others because it always makes the accumulations look higher then they will be lol. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 We all do it even me, but the only reason we use that ratio more then any others because it always makes the accumulations look higher then they will be lol.Wait how does it make it higher? 10:1 ratio is actually higher than Kuchera for this system.. For some reason I think if it showed 2 feet for you , you would believe it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 you realize that kuchera is showing less than 10:1 in this case and as such is a better measure? If it were showing 12-15:1 ratios, that'd be one thing.Totally agree. Kuchera doesn't automatically depict greater than 10:1 ratios, even though that is often the case. I'm not saying to buy a particular model at this point, but the Kuchera map FOR A GIVEN MODEL should be closer to reality than the 10:1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'm having a hard time believing any of the snowy solutions will work out for the ORD area. But, since I like crazy NAM runs, I guess I'll be lurking for tonight's model runs. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 NAM gonna be way weak/south this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Lol im glad i didnt put my heart and soul into the 18z model run. Has nothing over us now and warmer temps tomorrow. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 This event is different with every run. How is a meteorologist supposed to properly describe/forecast this thing? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 1000 L near LAF, IN at hr 36 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018022800&fh=36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 This event is different with every run. How is a meteorologist supposed to properly describe/forecast this thing?Its hard to do but just let it sink in now nothings gonna happen. I believed till the bitter end with our systems and only ended up disappointed. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Its hard to do but just let it sink in now nothings gonna happen. I believed s**t till the bitter end with our systems and only ended up disappointed.The only thing I'm expecting is rain, if anything. Any snowflakes (not accumulation, just flakes) would be a surprise to me. So I'm going into this level headed. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Snow blows up in Michigan at HR45 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 My old pal once told me a good quote "Expect nothing and be surprised" Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Is this run of the NAM fully sampled I am assuming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 If the NAM is to be believed (which it isn’t) an area of snow just parks over Dubuque IA for several hours without moving. Seems very likely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 If the NAM is to be believed (which it isn’t) an area of snow just parks over Dubuque IA for several hours without moving. Seems very likelyRoadtrip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam and nam 3km are writing a different script.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nam and nam 3km are writing a different script..From 1-2 feet to not a flake within 48 hours lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ha Rgem is more phased and farther north this run 999 just south of Chicago at 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ha Rgem is more phased and farther north this run 999 just south of Chicago at 36Ehhh. Looks a good chunk south of chi town right?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ehhh. Looks a good chunk south of chi town right??Hard to tell on that stupid b/w maps but it’s a good chunk north of 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Still some major differences 6+ for GB this run on the gfs but the track is much weaker/south http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Still some major differences 6+ for GB this run on the gfs but the track is much weaker/south http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022800&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048 Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season. There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55"). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Literally a guessing game: LOT However, it is worth noting that if we see convectivesnowfall or possible thundersnow, then snowfall rates andaccumulations could quickly get out of hand along with very lowvisibilities and possibly even near blizzard conditions for atime. Confidence in this worst case scenario is low, but it issomething that will need to be watched as it is well within therealm of possibilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Literally a guessing game: LOT However, it is worth noting that if we see convectivesnowfall or possible thundersnow, then snowfall rates andaccumulations could quickly get out of hand along with very lowvisibilities and possibly even near blizzard conditions for atime. Confidence in this worst case scenario is low, but it issomething that will need to be watched as it is well within therealm of possibilities.Crap shoot, literally...should be interesting watching the radar tomorrow...btw, how were your tacos yesterday??? I actually had Jamaican Jerk taco salad! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 A strip from LaCrosse, Wis Rapids to Green Bay has seen an unusual winter. Below normal temps, above normal precip and below normal snowfall. Lots of frz rain and slop. Duluth is interesting. The "warmth" of the lake certainly influences weather but another large factor is elevation. I don't know what the elevation change is exactly but the city is basically built on a cliff. Temps are cooler and the elevation adds lift. Fun stuff Tabitha. Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season. There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55"). 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 From GRR "The GFS looks likethe odd model out, with the NAM and Canadian similar with theoverall evolution. The ECMWF is near that of the NAM and Canadian.The bottom line is we are expecting some phasing over our areaWednesday night into Thursday." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Despite all the storms aimed in their direction; Green Bay has had just 9/10ths of an inch of snow in the last 22 days; and just 24.4" on the season. There is much variation; even on the leeward side of the Great Lakes...it is a little known fact that the Duluth Airport is about 20 inches snowier annually than downtown Duluth (about 75" to 55").The same is true at Marquette, MI were the official air port site is located at Neqaunee, MI in the hills west of Marquette. The official snow fall for Marquette (the Marquette area) is now at 113.9" for this season while at the downtown the season total is 66.4" The airport is not only inland but also higher in elevation. The city is warmer with a west wind (down sloping) but is much cooler in the spring and summer with a east or northeast wind. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think we still have to keep a eye on tomorrows system. The storm track is in a location that can bring a lot of wind and snow to Michigan and it is still only March. Time to see if all of the expensive models can really pick up on the old “surprise” storms. I have a felling this storm could be one of the old time “surprise” storms with so keep a eye out for that to happen’ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 I think we still have to keep a eye on tomorrows system. The storm track is in a location that can bring a lot of wind and snow to Michigan and it is still only March. Time to see if all of the expensive models can really pick up on the old “surprise” storms. I have a felling this storm could be one of the old time “surprise” storms with so keep a eye out for that to happen’ This can bring 6"+ to some locales. That is what they are calling for my area. Rain, quickly going to a heavy, windriven snow. The snow will go from a wet to a drier formation w drifting and blowing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 NOAA: Will continue to advertise the potential for accumulating snowfall,with the bulk of it falling in a 6-9 hour window late Thursdayafternoon through midnight. Placement and amounts of highest totalsremains uncertain, with amounts exceeding 4 inches in play. Muchhigher totals are also in play, with the potential for 6+ inchesmainly north of M-59. The forecast will likely continue to rapidlyevolve over the next 24-36 hours, so be sure to continue checkingfor frequent updates as totals are refined. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 6"+ for my area! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 for what it is worth,Here is the WPC’s take on the snow potential for the upcoming storm system’4” or morehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif8” or morehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif12” or morehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 6"+ for my area!locked and loaded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 This system really turded out for Iowa. Getting northern and southern energy to align just right for us is like getting all the planets to align. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Need this to phase a littler sooner for those west of here but at least 12z Nam heading in the right direction. Model madness to continue for the next couple runs as they still cannot figure this storm out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 There goes Mi stealing all my snow!!! (please read with sarcasm) Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Crap shoot, literally...should be interesting watching the radar tomorrow...btw, how were your tacos yesterday??? I actually had Jamaican Jerk taco salad!Delicious. Almost snapped a pic of the steaks on the grill they looked so amazing. Was also great to hear/see people walking dogs, joggers, kids playing, etc. That taco salad sounds interesting - might have to try that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 This can bring 6"+ to some locales. That is what they are calling for my area. Rain, quickly going to a heavy, windriven snow. The snow will go from a wet to a drier formation w drifting and blowing. locked and loaded There goes Mi stealing all my snow!!! (please read with sarcasm) Once AGAIN, SEMI makes off with the best goods..tho that 12z NAM is more generous for SWMI back my way. Looking good to hit 60" for mby 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 Look at thermals. There is pinging Shoulda just said P-type issues, then I woulda understood what you meant. On something with a classic RN->SN via dynamic cooling, at least over here, we either get-er-done, or we don't. Rarely is a mix-fest in the cards on the margins of winter (front or back). We save all that mix stuff for prime winter months. I'd call it the Lakes Affect. You guys further west that don't deal with the moderating effects of the GL's have a different scenario for better or worse DTX's afd backed-up my post yesterday.. "This also favors a little earlier rain tosnow transition across the area while using a composite QPF beforeprecipitation diminishes during the evening. Not much mixed precipis expected, mainly just a transition from rain to snow." 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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