Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
I was about to say, isn't the GFS's whole big idea with the ridge next week that the GOA troughing will bomb out well upstream and pump up a ridge? Seems like classic Springtime GFS cutoff bias in the GOA.
GFS/GEFS definitely on its own now that the 18z ICON has moved towards the Euro/CMC solution. But again, a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows.
That said, I’d never trust the GFS/GEFS to properly handle NPAC ULLs during the spring months.
So insane how some of the coldest anomalies on earth exist exactly where we want them. Amidst a really hot planet and a (now dead) Niño, we've been amazingly spared over the last six months.
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