August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good news all. The 06z Ensembles are decidedly warmer!

[BLI snowman]

I wish our winters started Nov 20 instead of Jan 20.

 

And ours summers end September 20 after starting in mid May. Fall and winter are pathetically short and spring and summer are horribly long.

[Kayla]

The GFS is absurdly hott for you guys late next weekend and next week. The 00z ECMWF turned a lot cooler in that same period but has almost zero ensemble support.

 

The GFS for whatever reason seems to be leading the way this summer.

[Phil]

The GFS is absurdly hott for you guys late next weekend and next week. The 00z ECMWF turned a lot cooler in that same period but has almost zero ensemble support.

 

The GFS for whatever reason seems to be leading the way this summer.

Pacific convection/tropical cyclones everywhere in tandem w/ a different NATL state hasn’t been easy on the modeling this month. It’s been tough on me as well..I screwed up August too.

 

Lowest ECMWF skill scores since 2009?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Smoke. The new normal in summer.

[MossMan]

Clouds or smoke?

 

Smoke above valley fog here. Smoke is way lower than yesterday.

Definite marine layer with some smoke mixed in.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely not cloudy in Ballard, but definitely smoky. Maybe slightly better than yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely not cloudy in Ballard, but definitely smoky. Maybe slightly better than yesterday.

 

 

View from Hurricane Ridge...

 

[BLI snowman]

Impressive amount of variety on the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

Visible satellite image of BC... you can see the more elevated smoke pouring into the Vancouver area and Bellingham and also the extremely thick smoke trapped in the river valleys of southeast BC.     

 

 

 

Here is a traffic camera from Kamloops under that really thick smoke...

 

[Blizzard777]

Smoke. The new normal in summer.

I was just thinking that. I know we always had the wildfires in the past but just don’t remember smoke being and issue like it is now. Sure, we had pollution haze but not this much wildfire smoke on the west side and a red orb instead of a yellow sun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive amount of variety on the 12z.

 

Variable smoke.

[Andrew.]

Variable smoke.

 

Hahaha just noticed the end of your signature, love it

[Jesse]

Still looking like there could be a window for a pattern change in the 8-10 day range. But then again it has been looking like that for weeks now.

 

At least Thursday-Sunday look a little cooler. Small victories!

[Jesse]

Really hope the GFS is having problems, spitting out that endless heat pattern in the LR. But, as Kayla mentioned, it has uncharacteristically been leading the way lately.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Cherry picking one station out of several hundred is not how you decipher large scale pattern analogs. The weather pattern this summer has not resembled 1949, nor has the solar cycle or ENSO/tropical forcing state.

 

For instance, my city was very dry and hot in 1949. This year we’ve had 46” of rain since May 1st. Huge difference.

I was never comparing this summer to 1949, far from it. Don't know how you came to that conclusion. I was just pointing out that Regina and Albany broke summer heat records that date back to 1949.

 

I know all about what has happened at DCA. It's one of the stations in the summer forecast contest and I commented before about all the rain you have had. It doesn't take away from the fact many locations in the NE have had a hot summer, some producing all time heat records.

 

Just to name a couple. Burlington, Vermont just recorded its hottest month ever (July 2018) in close to 100 years, records go back to 1892. Another one is Caribou, Maine. It also recorded its hottest month ever last month.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO brings insane heat one week from today. It's showing PDX getting to 106. If we're going to continue to be hot, might as all go all out now.

[MossMan]

The 12z EURO brings insane heat one week from today. It's showing PDX getting to 106. If we're going to continue to be hot, might as all go all out now. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018081312_180_3955_217.png

What are some numbers for western wa?

[Jesse]

I was never comparing this summer to 1949, far from it. Don't know how you came to that conclusion. I was just pointing out that Regina and Albany broke summer heat records that date back to 1949.

 

I know all about what has happened at DCA. It's one of the stations in the summer forecast contest and I commented before about all the rain you have had. It doesn't take away from the fact many locations in the NE have had a hot summer, some producing all time heat records.

 

Just to name a couple. Burlington, Vermont just recorded its hottest month ever (July 2018) in close to 100 years, records go back to 1892. Another one is Caribou, Maine. It also recorded its hottest month ever last month.

Since I’m assuming your winter forecast is for the PNW, it’s worth noting that we had a fairly cool summer in 1949. A far cry from the unprecedented, unrelenting blowtorch this one has turned into.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What are some numbers for western wa?

Here's a wider view of the high temperatures next Monday. For some reason the map above doesn't show the cities and counties.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really hope the GFS is having problems, spitting out that endless heat pattern in the LR. But, as Kayla mentioned, it has uncharacteristically been leading the way lately.

 

What reason would we have for it end? I think Phil is right on this one. The only thing now that will break the heat is seasonal forcing, which is a bit of a ways off. PDX probably heading for 40 90+ days. Go big or go home I suppose. 

 

A local met commented during a FB convo the other day that if anything the models have struggled with the persistence and strength of the ridging all summer. Underestimating it so to speak.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here's a wider view of the high temperatures next Monday. For some reason the map above doesn't show the cities and counties.us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018081312_180_494_217.png

 

A heat dome over PDX!

[Jesse]

What reason would we have for it end? I think Phil is right on this one. The only thing now that will break the heat is seasonal forcing, which is a bit of a ways off. PDX probably heading for 40 90+ days. Go big or go home I suppose.

 

A local met commented during a FB convo the other day that if anything the models have struggled with the persistence and strength of the ridging all summer. Underestimating it so to speak.

I don’t recall Phil saying anything about heat the rest of the month, but I might have missed it.

[MossMan]

Since I’m assuming your winter forecast is for the PNW, it’s worth noting that we had a fairly cool summer in 1949. A far cry from the unprecedented, unrelenting blowtorch this one has turned into.

We could still have a cold washout of a September...in fact my weather gut is predicting it.

[Jesse]

We could still have a cold washout of a September...in fact my weather gut is predicting it.

Your weather gut also seems to think that July and August have been cool, sluggy washouts. Might just be indegestion.

[MossMan]

Your weather gut also seems to think that July and August have been cool, sluggy washouts. Might just be indegestion.

Could be...but I’m thinking 3rd times a charm?

[MossMan]

Here's a wider view of the high temperatures next Monday. For some reason the map above doesn't show the cities and counties. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018081312_180_494_217.png

Toasty!

[Jesse]

Make sure you eat at LeRoy's Blue Whale. Dank AF. Also the pizza place in Waldport has amazing garlic knots.

Ended up eating at Luna’s Seafood last night for fish and chips, but we will keep the Blue Whale in mind for next time.

 

We tried the Green Salmon for breakfast this morning. They have quite the selection of CBD infused coffee and tea drinks there. Pretty dope.

[Deweydog]

Took a Journey outside this morning.

 

There was no smell of wine or cheap perfume.

[Jesse]

Took a Journey outside this morning.

 

There was no smell of wine or cheap perfume.

Don’t stop believing.

[MossMan]

Smoke hitting hard up here now.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Quote smoky in Bellingham this morning, you can even smell it in the air.  Surprised how cool it got last night (52 IMBY).  I'm about done with the heat, my wife came home from Costco with a big packet of information and a business card from a A/C installer.  I think she might be trying to tell me something.  I shudder to think how much it would cost for our house (2 story 2,900 sq. ft).

 

Off to Bozeman this weekend to drop the kiddo off at University, looks like it will be in the 80's Friday, then in the low 70's with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.  I like it!!   I got blanked when we went in June, thunderstorms the day before we got there, and the day after we left,  some passed through the general area one day while we were there, but I didn't see/hear anything....hoping for better luck this time!!

[MossMan]

Quote smoky in Bellingham this morning, you can even smell it in the air. Surprised how cool it got last night (52 IMBY). I'm about done with the heat, my wife came home from Costco with a big packet of information and a business card from a A/C installer. I think she might be trying to tell me something. I shudder to think how much it would cost for our house (2 story 2,900 sq. ft).

 

Off to Bozeman this weekend to drop the kiddo off at University, looks like it will be in the 80's Friday, then in the low 70's with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. I like it!! I got blanked when we went in June, thunderstorms the day before we got there, and the day after we left, some passed through the general area one day while we were there, but I didn't see/hear anything....hoping for better luck this time!!

Heat pumps are quite efficient...pricey but worth the money in my opinion. Our last house had one. The house we just bought in the spring has a Geothermal system which is very cheap to run and does an amazing job with cooling the house...however extremely expensive to install.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Took a Journey outside this morning.

 

There was no smell of wine or cheap perfume.

Any Way You Want It.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Quote smoky in Bellingham this morning, you can even smell it in the air. Surprised how cool it got last night (52 IMBY). I'm about done with the heat, my wife came home from Costco with a big packet of information and a business card from a A/C installer. I think she might be trying to tell me something. I shudder to think how much it would cost for our house (2 story 2,900 sq. ft).

 

Off to Bozeman this weekend to drop the kiddo off at University, looks like it will be in the 80's Friday, then in the low 70's with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. I like it!! I got blanked when we went in June, thunderstorms the day before we got there, and the day after we left, some passed through the general area one day while we were there, but I didn't see/hear anything....hoping for better luck this time!!

I've got the MSU Bobcats basketball jersey. Coaches all signed it for me. Going in for surgery early tomorrow morning. Gonna be nice in the climate-controlled OHSU hospital.

[Tyler Mode]

Quote smoky in Bellingham this morning, you can even smell it in the air.  Surprised how cool it got last night (52 IMBY).  I'm about done with the heat, my wife came home from Costco with a big packet of information and a business card from a A/C installer.  I think she might be trying to tell me something.  I shudder to think how much it would cost for our house (2 story 2,900 sq. ft).

 

Off to Bozeman this weekend to drop the kiddo off at University, looks like it will be in the 80's Friday, then in the low 70's with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.  I like it!!   I got blanked when we went in June, thunderstorms the day before we got there, and the day after we left,  some passed through the general area one day while we were there, but I didn't see/hear anything....hoping for better luck this time!!

 

Costco quoted me $4,000 OVER most of the rest of the competition.  Sure you get incentives like cash back, but you must spend it at Costco, and for me it just meant financing more. 

 

I had my installed by a diff company just over a month ago.  Best investment, and just in time!

 

[MossMan]

Smoke.

[Kayla]

I've got the MSU Bobcats basketball jersey. Coaches all signed it for me. Going in for surgery early tomorrow morning. Gonna be nice in the climate-controlled OHSU hospital.

 

Good luck with things! OHSU is the best there is so I'm sure you'll be in great hands.

[Jesse]

I've got the MSU Bobcats basketball jersey. Coaches all signed it for me. Going in for surgery early tomorrow morning. Gonna be nice in the climate-controlled OHSU hospital.

Good luck man.