August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I do like those hills in the background compared to mine.

Have not been able to see them for 3 weeks!

[Jesse]

Have not been able to see them for 3 weeks!

 

Definitely a chance the smoke gets bad again moving into September if it is mostly dry for the region the next few weeks.

[Jesse]

Monday evening on Snoqualmie Ridge...

 

 

They must water the grass in that park.

[El_Nina]

0.08” here. Strapped in and ready for at least another two months of drought.

That's your total for the system?

[Jesse]

Very pleasant 77F tonight. Great to be outside lighting up a doobie recovering from surgery. At 234 Jerseys now!!

 

We need to get together and burn one sometime. Once fire season is over of course.

[Jesse]

That's your total for the system?

 

Yes. And I think we "scored" compared to most of Portland/Vancouver west of here.

 

Sounds like you did relatively well, being even closer to the foothills.

[MossMan]

Perfect 73 degree day!

[Jesse]

Smoke, grass, burn, score. Almost seems like I'm speaking in code.

[Deweydog]

Perfect 73 degree day!

F*ck off.

[TT-SEA]

They must water the grass in that park.

We were just talking about that.

 

Only about 1/3rd of the park is in that pic and its all lush green.

[Jesse]

F*ck off.

 

Straw men!!

[El_Nina]

Yes. And I think we "scored" compared to most of Portland/Vancouver west of here.

 

Sounds like you did relatively well, being even closer to the foothills.

Orpgraphics played a big role looks like. I got over 7 times as much rain as PDX yesterday. And in case you're wondering why I made a new account, I couldn't remember the password for the other one and the email to reset it wouldn't send.

[Jesse]

Orpgraphics played a big role looks like. I got over 7 times as much rain as PDX yesterday. And in case you're wondering why I made a new account, I couldn't remember the password for the other one and the email to reset it wouldn't send.

 

Glad to see you back, man!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That's your total for the system?

 

Yes and it's .08" more than pretty much everybody in the central and south valley. Corvallis now has the longest rain and snow drought in the State of Oregon.

[El_Nina]

Glad to see you back, man!

Thanks, I stopped posting for awhile cause the weather wasn't going my way.

[El_Nina]

Yes and it's .08" more than pretty much everybody in the central and south valley. Corvallis now has the longest rain and snow drought in the State of Oregon.

I dont know, some places in far eastern Oregon like Grant and Malheur counties have been extremely snow deprived for quite some time. As far as rain drought, yes that's probably pretty accurate.

[BLI snowman]

I think the late November stuff in particular is partially due to recency bias, though. In recent memory we have 2006, 2010, 2014, etc, but historically such events have been more rare - compared to historic events mid December on.

 

It's been well documented how late November/early December has far outperformed compared to the rest of the cold season in recent decades, so if you're just going by that it's one thing.

 

If you go by the long-term records, mid December to mid January obviously weighs in heavier and before that lighter.

 

Late November is when our average high drops below 50 and our inversion season really begins to pick up. It is statistically the stormiest point of the year and  the point where significant snow and subfreezing temps become plausible. I don't think it's simply recency bias to say that it fits well into our window of winter.

[ShawniganLake]

Yikes, yeah that'll do it.

2nd worst in recorded history. Last year saw a larger total area burned but this season has been much more spread out geographically. Pretty much every region has seen some major fires.

[TT-SEA]

Monday evening on Snoqualmie Ridge...

 

Definitely more smoke over the Sound this evening than out here. Mt Rainier was barely visible through the layer of pollution. This is about an hour and 20 minutes after my pic above.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I dont know, some places in far eastern Oregon like Grant and Malheur counties have been extremely snow deprived for quite some time. As far as rain drought, yes that's probably pretty accurate.

 

And that teensy bit of light blue in Corvallis was snow that melted as it hit the pavement and it did not accumulate. That small area has not seen an accumulating snowfall since March 6, 2017.

[El_Nina]

Definitely more smoke over the Sound this evening than out here. Mt Rainier was barely visible through the layer of pollution. This is about an hour and 20 minutes later after my pic above.

 

What do you dislike more, smoke or rain?

[TT-SEA]

What do you dislike more, smoke or rain?

Smoke really sucks. I loved the rain yesterday.

 

Rain gets very tiresome at times here though. Price of admission.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Found a road way off the beaten path and made it all the way to 13500 feet. The beauty here is breathtaking. That is the highest on land I've ever been and what a trip to think i was only 900 feet lower than the top of Mt Raineer.

[El_Nina]

And that teensy bit of light blue in Corvallis was snow that melted as it hit the pavement and it did not accumulate. That small area has not seen an accumulating snowfall since March 6, 2017.

This comes down to how you want to look at it. Total snowfall vs average.

[MossMan]

Found a road way off the beaten path and made it all the way to 13500 feet. The beauty here is breathtaking. That is the highest on land I've ever been and what a trip to think i was only 900 feet lower than the top of Mt Raineer.

Awesome! What was the temp?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This comes down to how you want to look at it. Total snowfall vs average.

 

I'm simply looking for the place that has gone longer than anywhere else in the State of Oregon without an accumulating snowfall, and that place is Corvallis, which also happens to have the longest accumulating snowfall drought in the entire PNW. They also haven't seen any measurable rainfall since mid April.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Awesome! What was the temp?

this evening at 13500 it was 42. 65 at 8600 ft.

[El_Nina]

Gorgeous orange moon on the eastern horizon.

[Front Ranger]

Late November is when our average high drops below 50 and our inversion season really begins to pick up. It is statistically the stormiest point of the year and the point where significant snow and subfreezing temps become plausible. I don't think it's simply recency bias to say that it fits well into our window of winter.

I'm just not sure it's the same as late December in the East. In the last couple decades? Sure.

[El_Nina]

Smoke really sucks. I loved the rain yesterday.

Rain gets very tiresome at times here though. Price of admission.

Yeah that's the climate we live in. You got very with the late spring stuff though, it saved you from having a severe drought.

[Phil]

I'm just not sure it's the same as late December in the East. In the last couple decades? Sure.

He’s right about our winters. It almost never snows here in November, and 4 of our last 6 Decembers have been completely snowless as well.

 

Statistically, colder air and snow becomes more likely during the last week of December, and the last week of January to the second week of February is usually the peak of winter. It’s much more likely to snow here during the first week of March than the first week of December.

[Front Ranger]

At OLM, the average temp on March 1 is 41. On June 1, it's 58. A rise of 17 degrees in 3 months.

 

On Sep 1, it's 62. On Dec 1, it's 41. A drop of 21 degrees in 3 months.

 

Certainly a faster fall in fall, but we're only talking a 20% difference of a few degrees. Not quite the 50%-100% difference one might assume from some of the posts on here.

 

Now for those arguing that late November is actually winter in the PNW and not fall, due to the fact that cold and snow can occur then, I would point out that heatwaves can and also do occur in late May/early June. That in itself does not prove the seasonal difference.

[Front Ranger]

He’s right about our winters. It almost never snows here in November, and 4 of our last 6 Decembers have been completely snowless as well.

 

Statistically, colder air and snow becomes more likely during the last week of December, and the last week of January to the second week of February is usually the peak of winter. It’s much more likely to snow here during the first week of March than the first week of December.

 

Again, there's a difference between recent winters and historical norms.

 

Your peak is undoubtedly several weeks later than the West, no doubt about that.

[MossMan]

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/warm-wet-no-cold-snowy-farmers-almanacs-duke-it-out-over-nw-winter-forecast

[Deweydog]

PDX has a six month, depressing ascent from its coldest to warmest average high. Takes just about four months to do its serendipitous dive from warmest to coldest. Good times.

[Front Ranger]

PDX has a six month, depressing ascent from its coldest to warmest average high. Takes just about four months to do its serendipitous dive from warmest to coldest. Good times.

 

Long term, it's more like 5 months from warmest to coldest.

 

But that's part of the equation - is "spring" or "fall" defined by the entire time from peak of winter to summer and vice versa, or is it possible that the PNW has a very slow climb out of winter into spring that starts earlier than other places, but the real rise towards summer doesn't really get going until actual spring time arrives (March)?

[Deweydog]

Long term, it's more like 5 months from warmest to coldest.

 

But that's part of the equation - is "spring" or "fall" defined by the entire time from peak of winter to summer and vice versa, or is it possible that the PNW has a very slow climb out of winter into spring that starts earlier than other places, but the real rise towards summer doesn't really get going until actual spring time arrives (March)?

I hope this is a trolling attempt. If it is, it's A+ stuff.

[Phil]

Again, there's a difference between recent winters and historical norms.

Am I not describing historical norms?

 

Never in recorded history has November been a wintry month here. Ever. Snow in November is about as common as snow in April (and the latter has been more frequent than the former, as of late). Flukes like 1989 occur once every century or two.

 

We’re much more likely to see 70*F dewpoints and thunderstorms in November than snowfall or cold.

[Front Ranger]

I hope this is a trolling attempt. If it is, it's A+ stuff.

I just don't think it's as simple as defining the transitional seasons based on coldest point to warmest point.

 

September to October features easily the biggest month to month change. Outside if that, I don't think there's much difference in seasonal change.

[Front Ranger]

Am I not describing historical norms?

 

Never in recorded history has November been a wintry month here. Ever. Snow in November is about as common as snow in April (and the latter has been more frequent than the former, as of late). Flukes like 1989 occur once every century or two.

 

We’re much more likely to see 70*F dewpoints and thunderstorms in November than snowfall or cold.

 

Yes, but I'd argue that late December in the East overall has averaged more wintry than late November in the West.

 

For example, PDX's long term average highs in late November are about 5 degrees warmer than their coldest average highs a month or so later. On the other hand, NYC's long term average highs in late December are only about 3 degrees warmer than their coldest average highs that come a few weeks later. When you account for the greater seasonal variance in NYC temps, it's clear that NYC is closer to their peak winter in late December than Portland is in late November.

 

The idea that December is the peak of winter in the West is really just a result of recent tendencies. It ignores, for example, that PDX's long term mean for January is still a whole degree colder than December, and 8/10 top coldest months at PDX have been Januaries.