August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seahawks win the division at 7-9! Rams big name ego’s self destruct their season, Sherman will call Garoppolo a pansy which will in turn hurt his feeling and he will play like crap, and every singe member of the Cardinals will end up getting hurt. Go Hawks!

And Rashaad Penny will go full Marshawn Lynch on the Saints like 2010? XD

[Phil]

Global cooling + El Niño?

 

FWIW, warming equatorial waters + cooling off-equator and subtropical waters is a nice way to initiate a phase of Pacific Hadley Cell retraction/tightening.

 

So ironically, a more +ENSO this year (with -QBO present at 50mb) could help the PNW score a legitimate Arctic blast early on, via a more equatorward WHEM/NPAC jet/wavetrain with the NE-Canadian cold pool displaced somewhat southwest of last year.

 

The first half of winter definitely has potential, regardless of what ENSO et al may tell you. The important indicators are usually hidden in the details not well-represented by the standard teleconnection indices.

[Esquimalt]

06Z GFS was truly troughy...may set rainfall records for some locations .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW, warming equatorial waters + cooling off-equator and subtropical waters is a nice way to initiate a phase of Pacific Hadley Cell retraction/tightening.

 

So ironically, a more +ENSO this year (with -QBO present at 50mb) could help the PNW score a legitimate Arctic blast early on, via a more equatorward WHEM/NPAC jet/wavetrain with the NE-Canadian cold pool displaced somewhat southwest of last year.

 

The first half of winter definitely has potential, regardless of what ENSO et al may tell you. The important indicators are usually hidden in the details not well-represented by the standard teleconnection indices.

 

Interesting. in you opinion could the Hadley cell retraction become a longer term trend?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the smoke is working into PDX at this time. Not hear yet though. 

[Jesse]

Sounds like the smoke is working into PDX at this time. Not hear yet though.

Still pretty clear here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still pretty clear here.

 

I had Fox 12 on and that hottie weather babe was acting like we were all going to die.

[Jesse]

I had Fox 12 on and that hottie weather babe was acting like we were all going to die.

Will probably thicken up later. Dangerous air quality in parts of north central Wa right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will probably thicken up later. Dangerous air quality in parts of north central Wa right now.

 

I don't even care this time around. The end of extreme summer is fast approaching...We are about to turn the corner. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gonna be bad...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Will probably thicken up later. Dangerous air quality in parts of north central Wa right now.

It’s thick up here but mostly elevated. Just looks cloudy really, with a faint orange glow in the sky. Could have enough smoke this month to prevent us from seeing a record warm July/August combo.

[Jesse]

I don't even care this time around. The end of extreme summer is fast approaching...We are about to turn the corner.

Definitely has been more of a late summer feel the last few days. Got cool enough where we actually closed the window by sunrise the last couple mornings.

 

Hopefully the next spell of heat is our last, but that is a bold statement to make the third week of August in today’s climate.

[Farmboy]

I had Fox 12 on and that hottie weather babe was acting like we were all going to die.

Smoke-ma-geddon 2018

[Jesse]

It’s thick up here but mostly elevated. Just looks cloudy really, with a faint orange glow in the sky. Could have enough smoke this month to prevent us from seeing a record warm July/August combo.

Probably would need to see the advertised pattern change pan out too.

[The Swamp]

HRRR smoke model shows that Portland southward gets another clear day tomorrow while we are inundated up here at all levels.

 

Any chance you have an HRRR smoke model for Thursday and Friday for Eastern Washington?  Trying to adjust my plans based on this weak marine push Wed/Thurs and just not sure it penetrates the Cascades and clears them out.

 

Spokane Weather Service Office says yes.  Notoriously though these marine pushes are either delayed or really limp.

[The Swamp]

Probably would need to see the advertised pattern change pan out too.

 

The push that is supposed to develop Wednesday, you buying what the models are selling?

[TT-SEA]

Any chance you have an HRRR smoke model for Thursday and Friday for Eastern Washington?  Trying to adjust my plans based on this weak marine push Wed/Thurs and just not sure it penetrates the Cascades and clears them out.

 

Spokane Weather Service Office says yes.  Notoriously though these marine pushes are either delayed or really limp.

 

It is looking more wimpy on the 12Z GFS.   

 

The Canadian and HRRR smoke models only go out through 36-48 hours.

[Jesse]

The push that is supposed to develop Wednesday, you buying what the models are selling?

Seems to be pretty good agreement at this juncture. Although I wouldn’t bet on it clearing out over there until sometime Thursday at the earliest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely has been more of a late summer feel the last few days. Got cool enough where we actually closed the window by sunrise the last couple mornings.

 

Hopefully the next spell of heat is our last, but that is a bold statement to make the third week of August in today’s climate.

 

Yeah I almost made some statement like "it could be our last 90 this week." But I realize that is a stupid statement. We still have October. 

[Jesse]

Wednesday is definitely trending warmer. PDX should be good for 90 that day, which would put them at 31 by 8/22.

[Jesse]

Nobody has mentioned the GEM recently, so it must be on board with troughing now.

[ShawniganLake]

Nobody has mentioned the GEM recently, so it must be on board with troughing now.

Still warmer than the others but trending that way.

[Jesse]

Still warmer than the others but trending that way.

Nice.

[TT-SEA]

I bet the trend is going to be for that trough to cut off well offshore in the 7-10 day period and pump a ridge. GFS is trending west with the trough axis.

[Jesse]

I hope the trend is going to be for that trough to cut off well offshore in the 7-10 day period and pump a ridge. GFS is trending west with the trough axis.

We know. Maybe we will get lucky and see some rain instead, though. Really need it for the smoke and fire situation, as well as the dying vegetation.

[Jesse]

EPS seems pretty solid on holding the trough over us through day 10.

[Farmboy]

Looks like summer may attempt one last dying gasp on the 12z clown range.

[TT-SEA]

We know. Maybe we will get lucky and see some rain instead, though. Really need it for the smoke and fire situation, as well as the dying vegetation.

I agree.

 

And I don't control it.

[Jesse]

Looks like summer may attempt one last dying gasp on the 12z clown range.

September will probably be hot. Better hope for some rain between now and then.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Farmboy]

We know. Maybe we will get lucky and see some rain instead, though. Really need it for the smoke and fire situation, as well as the dying vegetation.

Last August/September was drier, imo... I don't see any dying vegetation where I am.

[Jesse]

12z GFS seems to have trended weaker with the first round of troughing for later this week. Probably not a good sign for the stuff down the road...

[Jesse]

Last August/September was drier, imo... I don't see any dying vegetation where I am.

Last year didn’t dry out in late April. Makes a big difference.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS seems to have trended weaker with the first round of troughing for later this week. Probably not a good sign for the stuff down the road...

 

Go figure. Maybe a day with a high in the upper 70s?

[Jesse]

Go figure. Maybe a day with a high in the upper 70s?

 

I am sure we will be looking at very hot and ridgy runs again within a few days.

[The Swamp]

12z GFS seems to have trended weaker with the first round of troughing for later this week. Probably not a good sign for the stuff down the road...

 

This is very disappointing. I'd like to see a marine push and cleaner air.

[Jesse]

This is very disappointing. I'd like to see a marine push and cleaner air.

Why do you hate summer.

[ShawniganLake]

Just checked the updated fire statistics for BC. 1.48 million acres burned. I could be mistaken but that’s probably good for 3rd highest all time. 2017 and 1958 are 1st and 2nd

[The Swamp]

Why do you hate summer.

 

Zing!

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles. Definitely some members that see the potential for the trough cutting off offshore and more ridging in the 7-10 day range.